TC Bertha

[WmE]

Looking very good for a 65kts storm.

[Meso]

Wow, She's looking good..That eye should start to clear out a bit more soon...Great outflow..

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 07 JUL 2008 Time : 104500 UTC
Lat : 19:22:00 N Lon : 50:23:38 W

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.4 / 982.1mb/ 74.6kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
4.4 5.2 5.2

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +1.5mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 18 km

Center Temp : +0.5C Cloud Region Temp : -54.3C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

****************************************************


STRENGTHING FAST! Possible IRC?

[Mecklenburg]

looking quite good, but kinda a small storm isn't she?

[Mecklenburg]

is it quite rare to have a hurricane at this time of the season???

[WmE]

is it quite rare to have a hurricane at this time of the season???

Indeed it is. The last time we've had a hurricane in July was 2005.

[HURAKAN]

Eye becoming more defined.

[Mecklenburg]

Eye becoming more defined.

looking quite good for a category 1 hurricane

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Look at the fanning outflow starting to come out of the southern part of the storm. This thing could challege 1996 Bertha's strength within the next 24 hours if things go "right".

[cycloneye]

Still some clouds inside but overall improving.I say 75kts at 11 AM.

[WmE]

Looking impressive for a Cat1.

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

Beautiful storm this early in the season.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Between the visible and the 85h posted above, I would say 75 to 80 knots.

[WmE]

Between the visible and the 85h posted above, I would say 75 to 80 knots.

Yes looks to be boarderline Cat1/Cat2. I would go with 75 kts though.

[Mecklenburg]

could it be that she is underground rapid deepening before heading off to the areas of heavy shear?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

could it be that she is underground rapid deepening before heading off to the areas of heavy shear?

YES! In fact it appears to be strengthing at a good clip right now.

[HURAKAN]

2008JUL07 081500 3.7 992.7/ +1.5 / 59.0 3.7 4.2 5.5 0.5T/hour OFF OFF -22.86 -59.51 EYE -99 IR 19.25 50.00 FCST
2008JUL07 084500 3.7 992.7/ +1.5 / 59.0 3.7 4.2 5.4 0.5T/hour OFF OFF -20.36 -58.13 EYE -99 IR 19.28 50.13 FCST
2008JUL07 094500 3.8 991.3/ +1.5 / 61.0 3.8 4.2 5.1 0.5T/hour OFF OFF -6.56 -55.00 EYE 12 IR 19.30 50.13 SPRL
2008JUL07 101500 4.1 986.9/ +1.5 / 67.4 4.1 5.1 5.1 NO LIMIT OFF OFF -0.86 -54.46 EYE 15 IR 19.23 50.37 COMBO
2008JUL07 104500 4.4 982.1/ +1.5 / 74.6 4.4 5.2 5.2 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 0.54 -54.32 EYE 18 IR 19.37 50.39 COMBO
2008JUL07 111500 4.6 978.7/ +1.5 / 79.6 4.6 5.1 5.1 NO LIMIT OFF OFF -9.06 -54.39 EYE 16 IR 19.30 50.52 SPRL

Up, up, up!!!

[HURAKAN]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 07 JUL 2008 Time : 111500 UTC
Lat : 19:17:59 N Lon : 50:31:26 W

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.6 / 978.7mb/ 79.6kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
4.6 5.1 5.1

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +1.5mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 16 km

Center Temp : -9.1C Cloud Region Temp : -54.4C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

****************************************************

[Chacor]

Certainly the eye is clearing out quickly. Quite possible we'll see a 70 or 75 kt hurricane at 12z I believe. Also, given that at the 03z warning it was 55 kts, I think we're getting close to the official definition of RI.