ATL: Tropical Depression Edouard

[sealbach]

what's the deal with the nhc floater? is there another loop that shows the storm?

[Bailey1777]

Does anyone have a recent sat. shot of Ed?

[Stormcenter]

Who says the center is reorganizing? That's ridiculous. The center is clearly not changing and even Bob Breck said on the TV just a few minutes ago that the center appears to be deepening and an eye could be trying to form.

The National Hurricane Center?


EDOUARD IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. A TURN TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECT TO OCCUR TONIGHT...AND THE CENTER OF
EDOUARD SHOULD BE VERY NEAR THE UPPER TEXAS COAST BY MIDDAY
TOMORROW. DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...THERE HAS BEEN SOME ERRATIC
MOTION DUE TO REFORMATION OF THE CENTER.

Well where is it reforming? Looks like the same center I've been watching all day.

Well if you look at this loop anything is possible.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... uration=12

[hurrican19]

what's the deal with the nhc floater? is there another loop that shows the storm?

NOAA is having to reboot the Satellite from a Windows crash

[Bailey1777]

He looks to be moving steadily West now.

[MiamiensisWx]

This is just one of the many reasons I LOVE to read the info you guys post! Not only do you have opinions, but you have the data to back them up (most of the time! lol).

NOW - for a couple of questions -
- Is there still a LLC as well as a MLC? I know earlier this morning, looking at the Visible satelite images, I seemed to be able to pick up 2 different rotations, or rather clouds moving in 2 directions at one place, indicating the 2 circulations were not "stacked". There have been posts all day about frier air entering from the MLC, but not a lot of talk about the LLC.
- Depending on the answer to above - Could the reforming be a shift between the locations of the LLC and the MLC, and now the LLC and MLC ARE "stacked"?

Thanks ahead of time for the answers - or at least not making fun of a newbie asking REALLY dumb questions!

3ABirdMan,

I'll offer a detailed breakdown.

In regards to your first question, a MLC is definitely still present, as mentioned by dolebot. It is clearly evident on radar, as mentioned. However, the reconnaissance flight is also assessing the location of the low level center. The MLC's position has not changed over the past several hours; however, the position of the low level center is another story. Earlier, the LLC was located SW of the mid level circulation. Based on radar and recon data, the LLC appears to have "shifted" (relocated/reformed) nearly directly under the MLC, so the critical "stacking" is currently occurring. Additionally, since the dry air within the boundary layer is mixing out and mid level moisture is increasing, convection is developing directly over the MLC. The stronger thunderstorms are enhancing stronger low level inflow, which has allowed the LLC to reform under the strongest convection beneath the MLC. Therefore, since "stacking" is finally occurring and the relocation is complete, we should finally observe steadier deepening/intensification.

Note that this does not change the long term west movement of the center.

Hopefully, I helped...

Miami

[Stormcenter]

He looks to be moving steadily West now.

You know I would say your correct but why did the NHC mention reformation?
Looking at the loop makes you wonder what is happening where that hugh ball of convection
is blossoming.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... uration=12

[gboudx]

jeff's latest update:

Deep large burst of convection over the center in the last few hours.

recon shows pressure is down to 999mb with flight level winds of 48kts.

Satellite presentation looks very good this evening

Edouard has been moving all over the place this evening..some of which appears to be center reformations. There is no change in the track reasoning and the storm should resume a W to WNW motion and be crossing the TX coast around noonish Tuesday over Galveston and then tracking WNW to between Sugar Land and Katy by early evening.

On this track core of winds and rain will pass over much of Harris County with area of 70mph winds confined near the center moving WNW from Galveston Island weakening to 55mph winds near the center over SW Harris and N Fort Bend counties. Power outages and downed trees are possible in this swath area and extending about 50 miles to the NE of this track.

Note: recon has indicated the wind field is expanding and this may require additional inland warnings for wind and expansion of those warnings NE.

There have been no changes to the rainfall amounts, storm surge, or wind forecast since the 400pm update. Based on radar appurtenance I am becoming increasingly concerned for the rainfall amounts.

Note: as conditions develop on Tuesday e-mails will be very short and brief. For in depth discussions and impacts refer to NWS Hurricane Local Statements.

[Derek Ortt]

http://www.nwhhc.com/satellite.html

these loops have been working quite well

[cycloneye]

Winds up to 45kts at ATCF best track at 00.00 UTC:

AL, 05, 2008080500, , BEST, 0, 284N, 916W, 45, 999, TS, 34, NEQ, 60, 60, 60, 60

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/

[Bailey1777]

Great post Miami!!!

[Sean in New Orleans]

He looks to be moving steadily West now.

You can have him. This storm is strengthening and I'm not particularly in the mood to be sitting in a hot dark house for 3 or 4 days....

[Stormcenter]

The latest radar loop is interesting.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... x&loop=yes

[dhweather]

Well I'm not sure about track, but it's forward speed has slowed, it's blocked to the north and its becoming better organized...what will keep this storm from becoming a strong Cat 1 or Cat 2?

I would like someone to explain why that won't happen.

1) Their is an extremely dry mass of air immediately to the north of Ed in central and southern Mississippi.

2) The flow of that dry air is to the west-southwest. Dry air and tropical cyclones don't mix together well, the dry air wins 99% of the time.

3) Ed is sitting in shallow water. As he churns up that shallow water and cools it off, he will cut his own lifeline if he sits there.

4) There is no significant convection on the western half of the storm, thus it is not symmetrical. Healthy, symmetrical cyclones intensify much faster than disorganized ones like Ed.

5) There's an upper level low over the Yucatan peninsula that is nudging Ed towards the North and is alos interfering with his outflow.

I would be surprised if he's anything more than a weak cat one tomorrow.

[jinftl]

I would ask the flip side....why hasn't the storm gotten stronger today and especially this evening as the satellite signature has improved? The NHC even said in the 8pm update that the storm has not strengthened this evening.

The fact that 18 hours away from expected landfall....with the bulk of those hours being while folks are asleep and unable/unaware to prepare if necessary...the NHC did not feel it necessary to upgrade the hurricane watch to a warning is very telling. The expectation in their mind is not that this will blow up into more than a strong ts/borderline cat 1.

The NHC errs on the side of caution. By contrast, hurricane warnings were posted for south florida when katrina was a 50mph storm and almost 24 hours offshore.

Well I'm not sure about track, but it's forward speed has slowed, it's blocked to the north and its becoming better organized...what will keep this storm from becoming a strong Cat 1 or Cat 2?

I would like someone to explain why that won't happen.

[Stormavoider]

This bandwidth hungry loop is interesting.

[Frank P]

Radar loop out of Lake Charles clearly shows the west motion..

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... 1&loop=yes

Radar Loop out of New Orleans shows a slightly different picture... Just goes to show you how systems can look different from different angles

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... 1&loop=yes

still looks west to me, and on the overall radar presentation banding looking somewhat better

[Smurfwicked]

What is aggravating is people freaking out that it could possibly go into SWLA all the sudden? I think not! That area has been in the Hurricane watch all along! People in the watch should of already been prepared!

[T-man]

Here ya go.

[KatDaddy]

Its looks to me move NW on the Lake Charles radar.