ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[Stormcenter]

:uarrow: What factors do you see that suggest it wont become as intense as I am speculating? And why doesn't anyone like the red? I think its cool.

Because some of the major (GFS) models are losing the storm or not showing it as
intense as you foresee it. I'm also still not sold on it making it
into the GOM. As always time will tell.

[CrazyC83]

Oh no!

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

That's 95L, not Gustav, that it blows up.

[RL3AO]

:uarrow: What factors do you see that suggest it wont become as intense as I am speculating? And why doesn't anyone like the red? I think its cool.

Because some of they major (GFS) models are losing the storm or not showing it as
intense as you foresee it. I'm also still not sold on it making it
into the GOM. As always time will tell.

The GFS is not picking up on the storm. You need to ignore it and use your brain. This won't weaken over the NW caribbean.

[txag2005]

Oh no!

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

Pardon my ignorance, but is that a model run? If so, what does the intensity show? Looks like a SE Texas hit.

[Sean in New Orleans]

OK...I'm watching, of course. It is wayyyy to early to even guestimate. We have all week to watch and see...the picture will become clear by Saturday, IMO. I'm concerned about this one, but, we have plenty of time to see what happens. It's too early to stress or even think hard about what the final outcome of this system will be, but, for now, I'm in the watching mode.

[Stormcenter]

:uarrow: What factors do you see that suggest it wont become as intense as I am speculating? And why doesn't anyone like the red? I think its cool.

Because some of they major (GFS) models are losing the storm or not showing it as
intense as you foresee it. I'm also still not sold on it making it
into the GOM. As always time will tell.

The GFS is not picking up on the storm. You need to ignore it and use your brain. This won't weaken over the NW caribbean.

If you want a major hurricane then you can have it but no matter how much you or
anybody else wishcasts it's not going to make a bit a difference so keep the name calling to yourself
and take a chill pill.

[RL3AO]

If you want a major hurricane then you can have it but no matter how much you or
anybody else wishcasts it's not going to make a bit a difference so keep the name calling to yourself
and take a chill pill.

Its been explained by multiple people why you should throw out the GFS. If you refuse to do that, then you the wish_caster.

[Normandy]

His wording might be harsh but his point is fair stormcenter. There is no data suggesting this will not deepen, if over water, over the NW Caribbean. and FWIW some models actually do deepen this substantially.

EDIT:
Now models are picking up on the intensity of this system. Both the GFDL and HWRF show a potential Category 5.

[Aric Dunn]

we have a hurricane

pressure 985mb.. FL winds so far 75kts

[CrazyC83]

Pressure seems to be around 986mb. 75 kt FL supports 67 kt at the surface and the SFMR is 64 kt. That would be Hurricane Gustav.

[lamsalfl]

On this map, are these flight level winds or are they converted to show surface level winds?

[RL3AO]

On this map, are these flight level winds or are they converted to show surface level winds?

That uses SFMR data which is estimated surface winds by the plane.

[lamsalfl]

Thanks. That's good to know.

Edit: It says it right in front of my face at the top of that map.

/dumbass

[CrazyC83]

Will they do a full special advisory or just do a tropical cyclone update?

[Wx_Warrior]

Actually, CMC has a more Mid-Texas hit.

[lamsalfl]

Will they do a full special advisory or just do a tropical cyclone update?

Good question. I hope they say something and not wait until 5. It's kinda funny they scheduled the plane to arrive right when the next advisory was due. Why not schedule the plane 30 minutes earlier? I think they put out special statements when systems become hurricanes close to land.

[CrazyC83]

Will they do a full special advisory or just do a tropical cyclone update?

Good question. I hope they say something and not wait until 5. It's kinda funny they scheduled the plane to arrive right when the next advisory was due. Why not schedule the plane 30 minutes earlier? I think they put out special statements when systems become hurricanes close to land.

They'll definitely say something. If there is a special, it would likely have to be by 2:30 am, otherwise they'll likely just do a text update with only the upgrade, no discussions or anything.

[CrazyC83]

85 kt FL winds - supports 76 kt at the surface.

Intensity probably 70 kt as a blend of the FL and SFMR.

[lamsalfl]

Will they do a full special advisory or just do a tropical cyclone update?

Good question. I hope they say something and not wait until 5. It's kinda funny they scheduled the plane to arrive right when the next advisory was due. Why not schedule the plane 30 minutes earlier? I think they put out special statements when systems become hurricanes close to land.

They'll definitely say something. If there is a special, it would likely have to be by 2:30 am, otherwise they'll likely just do a text update with only the upgrade, no discussions or anything.

Yeah, I'm thinking along the lines of a blurb or a paragraph. We'll get a new package in a couple hours.

[Aric Dunn]

advisory should come out very soon .. now that they have found max winds