ATL: IKE Discussion

[THead]

Im going to go ahead and say I think it will pass through the keys... I think I will be fine up here.. this happens all the time.. seems these storms steer away from S Fla

I'm happy for your serenity, lol. I still do NOT like to be anywhere just north of the "line" of one of these beasts. Also don't like the NHC discussion about the group of models that find a weakness at 80W.....alotta woefully unprepared people live at 80W...

[funster]

It looks like it could end up close enough at least for mass evacuations from South Florida. I guess those would start Saturday or Sunday.

[CourierPR]

South of trop points. GFDL verifying (by how much we'll see).

Sanibel, I believe Ike missed one forecast point to the south but he appears to be on track for the next one.

[cpdaman]

i am particularly concerned about the keys, becaue of the laid back attitude (in key west) if this is the same attitude they have up near the middle keys as well (i don't know) but should a cat 4 go thru there and most of the people stay , the storm surge could .......make things historic (unimagineable IMO) in a very bad way. I am NOT saying this is where it will go (who would i be kidding to think i could predict) that, just that i am very weary of a disaster in the making in the keys , should the complaceny in key west be the attitude of most of those on this island chain.

[boca]

Im going to go ahead and say I think it will pass through the keys... I think I will be fine up here.. this happens all the time.. seems these storms steer away from S Fla

What are you talking about? Not the right attitude my friend.

Even if the storm hits the Keys we'll still get 40 to 50mph here is SE Florida.

[funster]

People need to quit focusing on what could happen in 5-7 days and focus on the short term. The models will change, they always do. Anywhere from Cuba to North Carolina can be hit.

Exactly !

Models have been changing every 12 hrs. Dang, 120 hrs to go.

It's not five days. If you look at the 3-day it isn't very far away from Florida at 8 am on Monday.

[Sanibel]

Here's where reconnaissance adds science to the track and measures the ridge. Less shifting from here.

[Bocadude85]

I guess will will just have to wait and see how the models trend.. I was to quick to call a all clear for my area but I am feeling a little bit better now.

[Enzo Aquarius]

Ike is absolutely confusing, at its present course it could head north, south, anywhere. Yesterday, he was predicted to slam into the southeast coast of Florida (Ugh), and now today under Florida through the Keys (Ugh). The next couple of days are going to be, indeed, quite interesting.

[Scorpion]

I guess will will just have to wait and see how the models trend.. I was to quick to call a all clear for my area but I am feeling a little bit better now.

The 3 day track, which is most important, shows a huge threat to South Florida. That's really all anyone needs to know right now.

[jinftl]

Trend of cumulative probability of the areas experiencing 34kt, 50kt, 64kt in the forecast period (120 hours). The first % is what was forecast with 11pm Thursday advisory, the second was the forecast with the 5am friday advisory, the third (in bold) is the current friday 11 am forecast probability.

Fort Pierce north has actually seen % of experiencing these winds go down in latest advisory. West Palm has stayed the same. Miami has continued to increase and overall has the highest % probability of experiencing 34kt winds (45%) and is tied with Marathon for highest probability of experiencing 50kt winds (22%).

Marathon & Key West have been steadily increasing. Marathon now has 13% chance of 64 kt winds....the highest value as of 11am. Miami and Key West have a 12% chance.

Keep an eye on these with each new forecast advisory...it helps to see trends and assess risk.



Fort Pierce
34kt 30%-34%-33%
50kt 13%-15%-13%
64kt 5%-8%-7%


West Palm Beach
34kt 35%-40%-40%
50kt 14%-18%-18%
64kt 7%-9%-9%


Miami
34kt 35%-42%-45%
50kt 16%-21%-22%
64kt 8%-11%-12%


Marathon
34kt 28%-37%-44%
50kt 13%-19%-22%
64kt 9%-11%-13%


Key West
34kt 24%-33%-39%
50kt 12%-16%-22%
64kt 7%-10%-12%

[cycloneye]

Latest pic at 10:45 AM EDT: It looks like the northern part is gaining convection again.

[KWT]

Well thats the hope anyway
Sanibel!

CourierPR, current motion of 260, if that continues this will miss the forecast point to the south again, however the new updated NHC track is a little more realistic in terms of the next 24hrs of track...

[Jinkers]

I guess will will just have to wait and see how the models trend.. I was to quick to call a all clear for my area but I am feeling a little bit better now.

The 3 day track, which is most important, shows a huge threat to South Florida. That's really all anyone needs to know right now.

No one knows where it's going to go. It can hit anywhere in that cone, how many times are we told not to focus on the line. I'm prepared for the worst, and hoping for the best.

[ConvergenceZone]

IvanHater is probably hating this track. yikes!


http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... ml#a_topad

[Broward Mom]

Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.

It isn't to early to make preparations. IMHO, I don't see how anybody in the cone can not take this seriously.

Exactly. Decided to hit the Ace Hardware first thing this morning, and I'm glad I did as the anchors will be gone by noon. Got my 20 extra anchors, some two-ton epoxy, and RT-600.

It's easy to see how seriously people are taking it - go look for anchors today or bottled water and tuna tomorrow.

I can also report that David Bernard (& his co-horts) at WFOR-4 in MIA are doing a great job telling people not to panic these last couple of days. I find it very interesting that even for Hanna, they have a 3-step list they put on the screen: the last step is to put up shutters (Hanna never got that far, of course). It sure sounds like they will actually be telling people when to put up shutters, which is a topic many on TV hedge quite a bit (I assume no one wants to get sued). Pretty interesting as I will never forget the "beloved" Bryan Norcross' famous words that I heard for myself before Wilma: "This is not a shutter event for South Florida."

P.S. Dark and dreary day, rain finally just stopped. Gloomy weather --> greatly increases numbers of people getting prepared.

[HURAKAN]

[VeniceInlet]

Interesting to watch the forecast graphics loop.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2008/gr ... p_5W.shtml

[KWT]

Cycloneye, probably still weakening IMO though its probably not going to decrease in strength much more, the convection in the inner core holding still.

Hurakan, that NHC track totally rakes the islands as it heads through, quite a few would be close to the eyewall, be it on the north or south, nethier would be a walk in the park!

[jhpigott]

what set of models will the recon upper air data get inputted