ATL Tropical Depression GUSTAV - Model Runs

[AL Chili Pepper]

[shah8]

How about saying a few good words for the Euro? That run that showed a monster underneath Cuba was genius.

It's crap from day to day, but it seems to magically find its nut and post a brilliant forcast.

The trick is to figure out the gem among the dross.

Figures.

[Texashawk]

How about saying a few good words for the Euro? That run that showed a monster underneath Cuba was genius.

It's crap from day to day, but it seems to magically find its nut and post a brilliant forcast.

The trick is to figure out the gem among the dross.

Figures.

Reminds me of the axiom that even a busted clock is absolutely correct twice a day.

[Wx_Warrior]

new euro about the same (cen la) then hanna up the east coast and josephine is a monster in gom

[southerngale]

new euro about the same (cen la) then hanna up the east coast and josephine is a monster in gom

Link for the Euro? I saw it elsewhere and it wasn't Central La. - just wondering which one is accurate. All my good links are on my desktop and I only have my laptop here.

[evalea]

new euro about the same (cen la) then hanna up the east coast and josephine is a monster in gom

Link for the Euro? I saw it elsewhere and it wasn't Central La. - just wondering which one is accurate. All my good links are on my desktop and I only have my laptop here.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 00!!!step/

[BigB0882]

How about saying a few good words for the Euro? That run that showed a monster underneath Cuba was genius.

It's crap from day to day, but it seems to magically find its nut and post a brilliant forcast.

The trick is to figure out the gem among the dross.

Figures.

LOL! As I always say, sometimes you have to pick through the weeds to find the flowers!

[PTrackerLA]

Went to bed and the models and track had shifted east of me, now GFDL and HWRF put me in the right front quadrant, great. Preparing for the worst here.

[Weatherfreak000]

The models are absolutely worthless this close to landfall. Watch satellite loops and you'll know all you need to know about Gustav.

[attallaman]

I took a look at the latest models, there seems to have been a big shift to the west, my location, Biloxi appears to no longer be in the NHC cone of uncertainty although my area is still under a hurricane warning. Since the models have shifted further west and I'm no longer in the cone of uncertainty will the hurricane warnings for my area be dropped later today?

[Texashawk]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

Looks like the movement more NW/WNW may have started.

[rtd2]

I took a look at the latest models, there seems to have been a big shift to the west, my location, Biloxi appears to no longer be in the NHC cone of uncertainty although my area is still under a hurricane warning. Since the models have shifted further west and I'm no longer in the cone of uncertainty will the hurricane warnings for my area be dropped later today?

NEGATIVE...especially with and increase of the fwd speed.

[Janie2006]

I took a look at the latest models, there seems to have been a big shift to the west, my location, Biloxi appears to no longer be in the NHC cone of uncertainty although my area is still under a hurricane warning. Since the models have shifted further west and I'm no longer in the cone of uncertainty will the hurricane warnings for my area be dropped later today?

No. It remains possible that Gustav may shift to the east upon landfall and it is likely that hurricane conditions will reach the coast within 24 hours. These reasons ensure that the warnings will stay up.

[vaffie]

Latest GFDL and UKMET 12Z models out.

GFDL making a sharper turn to the left closer to landfall this time to the Cameron/Vermilion parish line, with the center going over Cameron itself.

UKMET shifting west from Grand Isle to Cocodrie.

https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/image ... s/storm_07

As noted earlier the GFS also shifted west to Cameron Parish for the 12Z run.

[jasons2k]

Joy

Yesterday the UKMET was the western outlier and the GFDL was the eastern outlier. Today they've switched. Ugh.

[Wx_Warrior]

Oh well...SETX has evacuated. Nothing more you can do now and sit and wait.

[vaffie]

The funny thing is that for all of this time, the NHC has been saying that they're going to go right of the consensus because of the consistency the GFS and GFDL have been showing. Now that they are pointing at the Texas/Louisiana border, the NHC is still keeping their track the same. And with this shear event that could push the storm to the west more than expected, it makes me a little nervous. I'm just very glad that at least Beaumont/Port Arthur were evacuated.

[Nederlander]

I am here in the Beaumont Port Arthur area and havent evacuated, yet due to the easterly track of Gustav... I know a mandatory is in place, but does anyone give this a chance of going more toward the TX LA border?

[rtd2]

we are living in AK (AFTER KATRINA) so its safer than sorry your not going to find any local official that wants to take a big risk!

[greg_kfdm_tv]

I am here in the Beaumont Port Arthur area and havent evacuated, yet due to the easterly track of Gustav... I know a mandatory is in place, but does anyone give this a chance of going more toward the TX LA border?

There is a slim risk. Gustav will be slowing it's forward motion near landfall Monday. A rather strong ridge of high pressure is expected to build north of the storm forcing Gustav to turn more to the west with it's remnants moving into East Texas around Toledo Bend Tuesday evening.

If the ridge is stronger than expected or Gustav moves slower than forecast, a turn prior to landfall is still possible. However, the most likely scenerio is for the turn to the west-northwest to develop after landfall.