ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Wow, less than 24 hours ago we had an INVEST. INSANE!

Pretty crazy when you think about it. At this rate, I wonder what the total amount of intensification will be by 11 AM with his first advisory as a TD being yesterday at 11 AM.

recon reported that the radar is showing greatest intensity in the ne quad. I wonder what they will find there.

It would not suprize me if there is some 90 knot flight level winds in the northeast quad. If this has enough time over the super hot waters I expect this to become a very powerful hurricane.

[lamsalfl]

Tell me why this couldn't grow to a Cat 3 before it approaches SE Cuba.

[Aric Dunn]

Tell me why this couldn't grow to a Cat 3 before it approaches SE Cuba.

its likely at this point

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Tell me why this couldn't grow to a Cat 3 before it approaches SE Cuba.

Hati

[Normandy]

FWIW, Hurricane Gustav now holds the record Humberto set last year for fastest deepening. Humberto went from TD to cane in 19 hours, this went from TD to cane in 14 hours. Although this probably was a TD before the NHC classified it.

[artist]

quote]

It would not suprize me if there is some 90 knot flight level winds in the northeast quad. If this has enough time over the super hot waters I expect this to become a very powerful hurricane.

that is my fear Matt, good to see you!

[RL3AO]

FWIW, Hurricane Gustav now holds the record Humberto set last year for fastest deepening. Humberto went from TD to cane in 19 hours, this went from TD to cane in 14 hours. Although this probably was a TD before the NHC classified it.

Best track has already been changed to a TD at 6z yesterday. So the best track will be TD to hurricane between 18 and 24 hours.

[artist]

what is up with the GOES satellite? It has been having problems all afternoon and tonight as well. from ghcc

[RL3AO]

what is up with the GOES satellite? It has been having problems all afternoon and tonight as well. from ghcc

It was in the eclipse which explains tonights issues.

[artist]

thanks. It is showing black spots all over it as well. Hopefully later today it will be fixed.

[lamsalfl]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Gustav_(2008)

Wikipedia is exponetially fast!!!

[lamsalfl]

Wow... If the storm doesn't hit eastern Cuba at all, I wonder how much the proximity would affect further development.

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

Wow... If the storm doesn't hit eastern Cuba at all, I wonder how much the proximity would affect further development.

In the short term it might slow down development but the "mountains" aren't high enough in that part of Cuba to disrupt the circulation at all if it doesn't even make landfall. Once away and in the Gulf it should resume development depending on environmental conditions in the Gulf at the time.

[lost cause]

Wow... If the storm doesn't hit eastern Cuba at all, I wonder how much the proximity would affect further development.

I was looking at the water vapor loop on NHC today and had this sinking feeling that the forecast track that was posted initially was a little too optimistic on the right hand drift of Gustav. Now, the models are more in line with what the WVLoop was showing. Now, it's entirely likely this system will hit the loop current in the Yucatan Channel. Greeeeat. Just what this monster-in-the-wings needs: fuel.

[lamsalfl]

Pardon my ignorance. What is "the loop"?

[Aric Dunn]

finally..

and image and there is a an eye popping out with deep convection all around it..

[artist]

Loop Current
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Jump to: navigation, search

Gulf Stream currents (1943 map).Part of the Gulf Stream, the Loop Current is a warm ocean current in the Gulf of Mexico that flows northward between Cuba and the Yucatán peninsula, moves north into the Gulf of Mexico, loops west and south before exiting to the east through the Florida Straits.

A related feature is an area of warm water called an "Eddy" or "Loop Current ring" that separates from the Loop Current, somewhat randomly. These rings then drift to the west at speeds of about 5 cm/s (0.18 km/h or 0.11 mph) and bump into the coast of Texas or Mexico.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Loop_Current

I should have added that this current can strengthen a hurricane if it sits over it due to the heat of the water.

[artist]

finally..

and image and there is a an eye popping out with deep convection all around it..

not fair Aric! It is still showing black for me!

[Aric Dunn]

finally..

and image and there is a an eye popping out with deep convection all around it..

not fair Aric! It is still showing black for me!

use this site..
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html
it updates normally every 10 to 15 minutes

[artist]

I used to have that link and lost it! Thanks!