ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[rainman]

I believe thats yesterdays 12z run.

[timeflow]

Thanks for this info Cycloneye. I'm looking at http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/ right now, seems it has not been updated yet. Perhaps it updates quickly, I'll keep refreshing.

That said, I'm wondering if there is a better way to access the below models faster individually and in more detail at specific sites for each model? What would be great is a chart that lists each model is released, along with a link to each official model... Something like this may already exist... or possibly in a sticky? Not sure...

For the new members that haved joined us recently and dont know the times that the next set of models come out here they are:

12z GFS at 11:30 AM EDT
12z CMC (Canadian)=1:00 PM EDT
12z GFDL at 1:30 PM EDT
12z HWRF at 1:30 PM EDT
12z UKMET at 1:30 PM EDT
12z NOGAPS at 2:00 PM EDT
12z EURO at 2:30 PM EDT

[/quote]

[DeanDaDream]

Try this one>
http://tropicalatlantic.com/plots/09-googlemaps.shtml

Thanks for this info Cycloneye. I'm looking at http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/ right now, seems it has not been updated yet. Perhaps it updates quickly, I'll keep refreshing.

That said, I'm wondering if there is a better way to access the below models faster individually and in more detail at specific sites for each model? What would be great is a chart that lists each model is released, along with a link to each official model... Something like this may already exist... or possibly in a sticky? Not sure...

For the new members that haved joined us recently and dont know the times that the next set of models come out here they are:

12z GFS at 11:30 AM EDT
12z CMC (Canadian)=1:00 PM EDT
12z GFDL at 1:30 PM EDT
12z HWRF at 1:30 PM EDT
12z UKMET at 1:30 PM EDT
12z NOGAPS at 2:00 PM EDT
12z EURO at 2:30 PM EDT

[/quote]

[rockyman]

I think that's today's CMC run...120 hours from 12z Sunday would be 12z Friday. I ran the animation, and the CMC shows the system moving toward Texas, but then turns it sharply NE back toward SE LA between Days 4 and 5:

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/model_fo ... 12_....jpg

[vaffie]

For what it's worth, 12Z UKMET just came out--it is still the leftmost outlier, pointing towards Corpus Christi. Note that it's the only one going south of Cuba briefly right now.

http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images ... orm_09.gif

[rainman]

I think that's today's CMC run...120 hours from 12z Sunday would be 12z Friday. I ran the animation, and the CMC shows the system moving toward Texas, but then turns it sharply NE back toward SE LA between Days 4 and 5:

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/model_fo ... 12_....jpg

the 144 hour forecast is not updated yet for some reason...look at the valid time. it goes from sat 00z to friday 12z.

[rainman]

just got updated...landfall somewhere around TX/LA Border

[rockyman]

I think that's today's CMC run...120 hours from 12z Sunday would be 12z Friday. I ran the animation, and the CMC shows the system moving toward Texas, but then turns it sharply NE back toward SE LA between Days 4 and 5:

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/model_fo ... 12_....jpg

the 144 hour forecast is not updated yet for some reason...look at the valid time. it goes from sat 00z to friday 12z.

You're 100 percent correct...sorry about that...the run is now complete and shows SE Texas...I thought the sudden NE jump was odd...but with a trough coming, I thought it was possible.

[cycloneye]

12z GFDL ends south of Louisiana moving WNW.

WHXX04 KWBC 071727
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

HURRICANE IKE 09L

INITIAL TIME 12Z SEP 7

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 21.0 72.8 265./13.0
6 21.0 73.9 268./10.2
12 21.4 75.2 287./12.5
18 21.4 76.7 270./13.9
24 21.4 78.0 271./12.2
30 21.6 79.1 280./10.9
36 21.9 80.1 287./ 9.3
42 22.2 81.1 289./10.2
48 22.7 82.1 298./10.0
54 23.4 82.8 309./ 9.6
60 23.9 83.5 305./ 7.8
66 24.4 84.1 308./ 7.6
72 24.9 84.8 308./ 8.0
78 25.3 85.5 305./ 7.4
84 25.7 86.0 307./ 6.4
90 26.1 86.8 299./ 8.1
96 26.4 87.7 287./ 8.9
102 26.7 88.6 288./ 8.2
108 27.0 89.5 287./ 8.5
114 27.2 90.4 283./ 8.9
120 27.6 91.3 299./ 8.5
126 28.1 92.1 299./ 8.7

[Ed Mahmoud]

I think that's today's CMC run...120 hours from 12z Sunday would be 12z Friday. I ran the animation, and the CMC shows the system moving toward Texas, but then turns it sharply NE back toward SE LA between Days 4 and 5:

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/model_fo ... 12_....jpg

the 144 hour forecast is not updated yet for some reason...look at the valid time. it goes from sat 00z to friday 12z.

He's right. Somewhere in the Lake Charles/Port Arthur refineryplex per the model of the land of Celine Deion and Bryan Adams and source of killing freezes in Texas.

[vaffie]

Houston Forecast Discussion on Ike model runs:

OF COURSE ON TUESDAY IKE SHOULD BE ON NEAR THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
POSSIBLY GAINING STRENGTH...AND BY EARLY WEDNESDAY IT SHOULD BE ON
ITS WAY INTO THE SE GULF AND OVER HIGH HEAT POTENTIAL WATERS AND
IN ONLY A LIGHT TO MODERATELY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. LAST COUPLE OF
RUNS HAVE REINFORCED THE TREND OF A MORE WESTERLY JOG INTO THE
WESTERN GULF WITH THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF BOTH SWINGING IKE FROM A
NEARLY DUE WEST COURSE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
THEN NW-NNW SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND RIGHT INTO SETX. THEN SUNDAY
THEY BOTH ACCELERATE THE STORM OUT TO THE NE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
NEEDLESS TO SAY A GREAT MANY ISSUES CROP UP IN GOING WITH THE
GFS/ECMWF FORECASTS. FIRST OFF IS AMOUNT OF DISRUPTION TO IKE AS
IT MOVES OVER CUBA...SECONDLY HOW MUCH SHEAR WILL IT ENCOUNTER AS
IT MOVES ACROSS THE GULF...WILL IT INGEST A SLUG OF DRY AIR ON
WEDNESDAY AS IT MOVES NORTHWEST AND POSSIBLY TAPS INTO THE
CONTINENTAL AIRMASS AND THE POTENT RIDGING OVER S TX. THIRDLY THE
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST OR ROCKIES
THAT IS ENCOURAGING THE RECURVATURE. AT THIS POINT IT SEEMS VERY
PREMATURE TO FORECAST IT MAKING LANDFALL HERE. AS FOR GRIDS
THURSDAY-SATURDAY WE HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS - IN GENERAL
NORTHERLY WINDS LESS THAN 20 KNOTS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER POPS.
FOLKS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF COAST STATES SHOULD
KEEP A VERY CLOSE EYE ON IKE.

PERHAPS THE SILVER LINING IN ALL OF THIS IS THAT WE SHOULD STILL
GET ANOTHER PACIFIC FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR MONDAY...DEPENDING
OF COURSE ON HOW IKE PLAYS OUT.

[DESTRUCTION5]

12z GFDL ends south of Louisiana moving WNW.

WHXX04 KWBC 071727
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

HURRICANE IKE 09L

INITIAL TIME 12Z SEP 7

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 21.0 72.8 265./13.0
6 21.0 73.9 268./10.2
12 21.4 75.2 287./12.5
18 21.4 76.7 270./13.9
24 21.4 78.0 271./12.2
30 21.6 79.1 280./10.9
36 21.9 80.1 287./ 9.3
42 22.2 81.1 289./10.2
48 22.7 82.1 298./10.0
54 23.4 82.8 309./ 9.6
60 23.9 83.5 305./ 7.8
66 24.4 84.1 308./ 7.6
72 24.9 84.8 308./ 8.0
78 25.3 85.5 305./ 7.4
84 25.7 86.0 307./ 6.4
90 26.1 86.8 299./ 8.1
96 26.4 87.7 287./ 8.9
102 26.7 88.6 288./ 8.2
108 27.0 89.5 287./ 8.5
114 27.2 90.4 283./ 8.9
120 27.6 91.3 299./ 8.5
126 28.1 92.1 299./ 8.7

Runs Cuba all the way...Cant be good for Cuba or strength..

[KWT]

Extrap the gfdl motion and you get a landfall strike somewhere close to Galveston

[Ed Mahmoud]

My gut does still say Louisiana, but I will note the refreshing dry air is starting to be replaced by more typical late Summer/early Autumn air in the HOU area.

[Weatherfreak000]

Extrap the gfdl motion and you get a landfall strike somewhere close to Galveston

No...SW LA.

[rockyman]

12z HWRF is slightly weaker and slightly further west...with an extrap landfall near Mobile (previous was in extreme NW Florida Panhandle)

[cycloneye]

12z UKMET tracks towards just south of Galveston.

HURRICANE IKE ANALYSED POSITION : 21.2N 72.8W



ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092008



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 07.09.2008 21.2N 72.8W INTENSE

00UTC 08.09.2008 21.3N 75.2W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 08.09.2008 21.4N 78.0W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY

00UTC 09.09.2008 21.5N 79.8W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 09.09.2008 21.9N 82.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 10.09.2008 22.2N 83.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 10.09.2008 22.7N 85.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 11.09.2008 23.8N 86.4W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

12UTC 11.09.2008 24.2N 87.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 12.09.2008 24.7N 89.2W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 12.09.2008 25.4N 91.6W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 13.09.2008 26.3N 93.2W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 13.09.2008 27.5N 94.7W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

[rockyman]

If you "split the goalposts" with the GFDL and HWRF and lean toward the HWRF track (see 2007 NHC model verification discussion), you'd get a SE Louisiana hit

[artist]

They can still be helpfull, even though they have a lower resolution then the op run.

can you post that again when the 12z comes out? And thanks so much for your input and patience here.

[Ed Mahmoud]

UK Met is somewhere in Matagorda-ish area, not quite onshore, as a 'strong' hurricane, down from the current "intense" hurricane, but up from the "moderate" from Cuba.



Edit to remove UK Met, posted last page. I'm guessing "Intense" is a major, "Strong" is cat 1 and 2, 'Moderate" is a storm, and "weak" is a depression, but that is purely a guess.