ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[vaffie]

If you "split the goalposts" with the GFDL and HWRF and lean toward the HWRF track (see 2007 NHC model verification discussion), you'd get a SE Louisiana hit

True. Note though that the NHC is completely discounting the 6Z HWRF run as unlikely--see their 11 am discussion.

[KWT]

Extrap the gfdl motion and you get a landfall strike somewhere close to Galveston

No...SW LA.

Yeah I was using the 12hr average but 6hr extrap is further east.

[Sabanic]

If you "split the goalposts" with the GFDL and HWRF and lean toward the HWRF track (see 2007 NHC model verification discussion), you'd get a SE Louisiana hit

True. Note though that the NHC is completely discounting the 6Z HWRF run as unlikely--see their 11 am discussion.

MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS FORECAST THE TROUGH TO BYPASS THE CYCLONE RESULTING IN A
CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. ONLY THE HWRF MODEL SHOWS
ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS MATERIALIZING TO TURN IKE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD.
WHILE THIS SOLUTION IS POSSIBLE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS MORE
TOWARD THE REMAINING DYNAMICAL MODELS AND IS NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF
THE MODEL CONSENSUS. IT IS MUCH TOO EARLY TO ANTICIPATE WHICH
AREAS ALONG THE GULF COAST COULD BE IMPACTED BY THIS SYSTEM.

[cycloneye]

12z GFDL loop.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[rainman]

They can still be helpfull, even though they have a lower resolution then the op run.

can you post that again when the 12z comes out? And thanks so much for your input and patience here.

go to this link....

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/

Ike will probably still be frame 2 or frame 1. The GFS ensembles is under the GFS ensemble track guidance, and all models are under Early-cycle track guidance. 12z stuff comes onto this site around 3 pm and 18z around 9 PM and so forth.

[Ed Mahmoud]

GFDL runs 3/4 of Cuba, and keeps it a hurricane. I don't know. High end 2/Low end Cat 3 approaching SW Louisiana, but TS winds on the coast GLS to MOB.

[rockyman]

The GFDL is eerily similar to Gustav in the Gulf...showing a system moving NW, then curving WNW right before landfall...

[cycloneye]

12z CMC (Canadian) tracks towards Texas/LA border.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[HouTXmetro]

GFDL runs 3/4 of Cuba, and keeps it a hurricane. I don't know. High end 2/Low end Cat 3 approaching SW Louisiana, but TS winds on the coast GLS to MOB.

My gut is telling me Lake Charles area but I'm not prepared to make a final call just yet. My cone of uncertainty is Corpus Christi, TX to Lake Charles, LA.

Unofficial Forecast.

[El Nino]

12z CMC (Canadian) tracks towards Texas/LA border.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

Not a good one !

[cycloneye]

12z HWRF says hello Mobile,Alabama!

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

[TampaFl]

2:00pm position:

[HouTXmetro]

12z HWRF says hello Mobile,Alabama!

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

Hmmm Consistency can't be discounted.

[TampaFl]

[Sabanic]

12z HWRF says hello Mobile,Alabama!

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

Hmmm Consistency can't be discounted.

Not too crazy about that run

[Wx_Warrior]

I don't buy CMC...Never have, never will. It performs about like the Houston Texans.

[lonelymike]

12z HWRF says hello Mobile,Alabama!

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

Looks more like Miss/La

[vaffie]

Something to think about. If Ike stays relatively near the coast of Cuba for the duration, not only will it not weaken as much, a long period of land friction could turn it into a huge Katrina-sized storm. Enough time over the Gulf of Mexico and initially the Loop Current could result in a huge AND intense storm. Such a scenario would affect Louisiana regardless of whether or not it even made landfall there.

[Dean4Storms]

If you "split the goalposts" with the GFDL and HWRF and lean toward the HWRF track (see 2007 NHC model verification discussion), you'd get a SE Louisiana hit

True. Note though that the NHC is completely discounting the 6Z HWRF run as unlikely--see their 11 am discussion.

Surely you jest.

[KWT]

Yep Vaffie thats a very good thing to remember, may models like GFDL and HWRF have this becoming a very chunky hurricane indeed, a large cat-2/3 hurrcane wouldn't be a very good thing at all, a larger version of Gustav for example