ATL: Tropical Depression Edouard

[Chacor]

I just can't believe that the center is projected to go over Houston exactly.

As should be obvious by now... it's a BAD IDEA™ to focus solely on the forecast line.

[Texashawk]

Just plotted the 00Z models. Threw out NAM and NOGAPS, kept the better consensus models, HWRF, and GFDL. Tight consensus for Galveston Bay.

Sort of takes all the fun and guesswork out of the NHC offices, eh.... must be a letdown.

[jeff]

Even if it makes hurricane strength, I don't think any obs will register over around 65 sustained.

Is this because the NHC would make a mistake in overstating the winds or that the measurement instrument would be flawed?

Coastal Obs usually do not record what the sustained winds are at landfall..There were no SPI obs of 100mph sustained during Dolly highest I saw was 78mph. There are various reasons for this.

I would expect 45-55mph sustained winds along the coast with gust to 65mph or 70mph. Metro Houston could see sustained 35-40mph winds with gust to 50mph in bands on deeper convection. May see higher winds in core area as it translates WNW through N Galveston and SW Harris, NE Fort Bend and Austin counties.

Winds of this magnitude could still bring down trees and power lines...a lot of people in a small area so a lot could be without power with just a few lines going down.

Flooding threat may be increasing for Harris County bayou system given track of core in this area. HPC 5" plus area right over Galveston Bay then WNW toward Waller Co...and they are usually way low...we shall see.

Tides are going to cuase some problems on the W end of the Island and on Bolivar where HWY 87 may go under. W side of the Bay showing 4.5-5.2 feet will cause problems at Kemah and Seabrook...flooding threshold aorund 4.0 feet in these areas.

Trying to get some sleep going to be very busy Tuesday for SE TX. Been going since 420 this morning and will be back at it at 500am Tuesday through the entire event. Speed up please.

[Diva]

Speed up please.

I'll second that! This is like watching a really bad movie. Maybe that's why it's seems to me like this won't make landfall until much later in the day tomorrow than they are forecasting.

[weatherrabbit_tx]

Speed up please.

I'll second that! This is like watching a really bad movie. Maybe that's why it's seems to me like this won't make landfall until much later in the day tomorrow than they are forecasting.

I second that!!

[physicx07]

Galveston now doesn't evacuate unless it's forecast to cat 3! Such a bad idea for hard and fast policy for storms in the gulf. So I don't think cat 1 forecast should trigger any big evacuation.

chances of a hurricane, while not unrealistic, are only about 5-10% now. I do not see a scenario where this exceeds 70KT

Tell you what, after Humberto last year I'd go a good bit higher on this storm with 18 more hours over water temps near 90 degrees. I had 50% on my last forecast. We've been going 75 mph since yesterday for landfall. See no reason to change. However, any 75 mph winds would be in a tiny area offshore. No such winds over land. It would only be a hurricane in name only, really.

I still can't believe the NHC has been forecasting 70 mph winds prior to landfall and no hurricane warning. They must not want to trigger an evacuation, maybe?

Just plotted the 00Z models. Threw out NAM and NOGAPS, kept the better consensus models, HWRF, and GFDL. Tight consensus for Galveston Bay.

[txag2005]

According to the evacuation maps, Galveston is the mandatory evac zone for Cat 1 and 2 hurricanes. Since when do they not evacuate until a Cat 3?

http://www.houstontx.gov/oem/images/2008evacmap.pdf

[HouTXmetro]

Ed looks sick tonight as usual.

[Shoshana]

I sure hope for the Austin area's sake, that this thing goes just south of them, that would give them the best chance of rain, which is very desperately needed over there.

Local mets are sayin we have 40% chance of rain from Edouard. For a while it seemed like the NHC had it going over our house but now it looks like it will be further north. Of course, I have no idea how widespread the rainbands will be.

I haven't turned off the sprinklers (next scheduled for Thursday) yet. No one I've talked to here even believes we'll get any rain at all.

It's been that kind of summer.

[physicx07]

The Weather Channel was there today talking to him apparently, and they reported that that is now their policy. Maybe those maps are old. I think they felt burned with Rita or something and perhaps the mayor wants to get re-elected before the next hurricane comes through and wipes out his constituents.

Oh and TWC did mention the zip zone coastal maps and apparently the trigger for 'zip zone coastal' doesn't go off until cat 3. Believe me, I thought it sounded crazy too, but that's what they said.

According to the evacuation maps, Galveston is the mandatory evac zone for Cat 1 and 2 hurricanes. Since when do they not evacuate until a Cat 3?

http://www.houstontx.gov/oem/images/2008evacmap.pdf

[HurricaneHunter914]

Ed looks sick tonight as usual.

Actually, he seems to be holding his own. Convection is still over the center and I don't see much waning at all. I do expect convection to wane a little tonight, but will come back tomorrow during D-max.

[Sean in New Orleans]

Here's a report from Grand Isle, LA earlier today and you can see how conditions were there today:

http://www.wwltv.com/video/news-index.h ... 9508&shu=1

[O Town]

The Weather Channel was there today talking to him apparently, and they reported that that is now their policy. Maybe those maps are old. I think they felt burned with Rita or something and perhaps the mayor wants to get re-elected before the next hurricane comes through and wipes out his constituents.

According to the evacuation maps, Galveston is the mandatory evac zone for Cat 1 and 2 hurricanes. Since when do they not evacuate until a Cat 3?

http://www.houstontx.gov/oem/images/2008evacmap.pdf

The map has an expiration date of June 2009 on the bottom right corner.

[wxman57]

The more I look at Edouard tonight, the more I'm thinking the NHC will make a track shift east at 10, maybe to just east of Houston. If that's the case, then Houston would go through the much weaker western part of the storm. Hardly any TS winds on that side, none to the SW of the center. May have to water my lawn if that's the case.

[txag2005]

So it looks like the 10 pm advisory will be about the same? I haven't seen many comments hinting at the storm strengthening.

[Diva]

I just posted this is the obs/prep thread but thought it was worthy of posting here.

Oil rig 30 miles SE of Sabine Pass, TX has sustained winds of 25+ mph with gusts to 32 mph right now.

[HurricaneHunter914]

The more I look at Edouard tonight, the more I'm thinking the NHC will make a track shift east at 10, maybe to just east of Houston. If that's the case, then Houston would go through the much weaker western part of the storm. Hardly any TS winds on that side, none to the SW of the center. May have to water my lawn if that's the case.

Awwwwww man! I was hoping for something and now my hopes are crushed...
On a happier note, the NHC satellites are back up.

[physicx07]

I updated what I wrote before. Apparently the trigger for zip zone coastal is cat 3 (!!!)

I hope TWC got it wrong, but that's what they reported. All the map I see here shows are the different zones, not the current criteria to trigger each one. I noticed they were careful to label them A,B,C, not 1,2,3 for possible confusion.

The Weather Channel was there today talking to him apparently, and they reported that that is now their policy. Maybe those maps are old. I think they felt burned with Rita or something and perhaps the mayor wants to get re-elected before the next hurricane comes through and wipes out his constituents.

According to the evacuation maps, Galveston is the mandatory evac zone for Cat 1 and 2 hurricanes. Since when do they not evacuate until a Cat 3?

http://www.houstontx.gov/oem/images/2008evacmap.pdf

The map has an expiration date of June 2009 on the bottom right corner.

[Steve]

Not going for it personally, but Breck thinks Cameron/Vermilion Parishes based on what he thinks is a more northwestern motion. He says less than 7, probably up to 50 (what he's hearing) and either WNW or NW just based on pinpointing the eye on his radar. (Don't shoot the messenger). Anyway, he showed the tight clustering of models and said that the NHC had assured him that it would eventually move back toward their track/course.

Wish I was down in Lafourche tonight under the squalls but it's just a little breezy in the city.

Steve

[americanrebel]

http://www.weather.com/weather/map/70526?showanimation=yes&mapregion=us_gls_closeradar_plus_usen

From looking at this radar in motion, don't look like the center of the storm has moved any, and definitely looks like the storms are wrapping around the LLC. So I think when RECON goes in and investigate, we will have a high end TS or min. Hurricane. I say pressure around 989 mb and Surface winds around 60 Kts with Flight Level winds closer to 80 Kts. This of course is just in my humble opinion.