TC Bertha

[Hello32020]

This is a very strange hurricane...

[Chacor]

You are missing my point.

Forecast position 7/3 through 7/7:
20.0N 46.5W 07/0600Z 03/0900Z
19.0N 48.0W 07/0600Z 04/0900Z
19.0N 49.3W 07/0600Z 05/0900Z
18.7N 49.5W 07/0600Z 06/0900Z

Actual:
19.3N 50.2W 07/0900Z 07/0900Z

Bertha is:
-0.7N +3.7W from Thursday
+0.3N +1.5W from Friday
+0.3N +0.9W from Saturday
+0.6N +0.7W from Sunday

Bertha's center reformed under the MLC in the last 24 hours. Adjusting for that, the actual deviation over four days (plus 3 hours) is more like -1.1N +3.6W from forecast. How is that not clearly deviation to the west?

Perhaps you could use the ATCF points which are 06z to do your comparisons, rather than the 09z analyses?

[Mecklenburg]

Nice!

cool

[Seele]

Is it undergoing an ERC or why did the eye get obscured?

Take a look at the IR loops to get a better view. IMO, it was just the combination of the big blowup of convection wrapping around and the moderate southerly shear effecting the storm. I'm guessing it will clear up in within the next couple of hours. Didn't look anything like an ERC to me because the original eye was never that well defined and there hasn't appeared to be a second eyewall (or even a complete main eyewall) in the microwave images.

[WmE]

Is it undergoing an ERC or why did the eye get obscured?

Take a look at the IR loops to get a better view. IMO, it was just the combination of the big blowup of convection wrapping around and the moderate southerly shear effecting the storm. I'm guessing it will clear up in within the next couple of hours. Didn't look anything like an ERC to me because the original eye was never that well defined and there hasn't appeared to be a second eyewall (or even a complete main eyewall) in the microwave images.

Yep, thanks for clarification.

[soonertwister]

You are missing my point.

Forecast position 7/3 through 7/7:
20.0N 46.5W 07/0600Z 03/0900Z
19.0N 48.0W 07/0600Z 04/0900Z
19.0N 49.3W 07/0600Z 05/0900Z
18.7N 49.5W 07/0600Z 06/0900Z

Actual:
19.3N 50.2W 07/0900Z 07/0900Z

Bertha is:
-0.7N +3.7W from Thursday
+0.3N +1.5W from Friday
+0.3N +0.9W from Saturday
+0.6N +0.7W from Sunday

Bertha's center reformed under the MLC in the last 24 hours. Adjusting for that, the actual deviation over four days (plus 3 hours) is more like -1.1N +3.6W from forecast. How is that not clearly deviation to the west?

Perhaps you could use the ATCF points which are 06z to do your comparisons, rather than the 09z analyses?

Because the official forecasts were convenent to me, and 3 hours basically seemed irrelevant. so maybe in 3 hours Bertha moved 0.2N 0.8W. So now you have a difference that was more like -0.9N +2.8W from forecast. That's maybe -27N +170W nautical miles from forecast. That's still significant. Of course forecast track will be closer to actual as each forecast point becomes closer to the current time. But the forecast track has been tending to the left and has not been static.

[cheezyWXguy]

Is it undergoing an ERC or why did the eye get obscured?

what do you mean? the eye didn't get obscured

Look at the IR. The eye cooled significantly.

ERC=eyewall replacement cycle.

Dont worry about IR when determining a developing eye...visible clearly shows that its just haze in the eye which is fairly high up, thus creating the illusion that the eye is dissipating. This is usually a sign of intensification, and the eye looks its best yet on visible, so there is no ERC to worry about.

[soonertwister]

Again, soonertwister, it appears from what you posted at the end of page 117 that Bertha is tracking a little north of the NHC forecasts if anything...

It's not. The motion has been faster. It's significantly farther west and a little north. If you adjust for yesterdays LLC relocation of roughly +0.3N or +0.4N and 0.0W or -0.1W from the relocation, it's even more westerly. The LLC relocation didn't change the relative track at all.

[Frank2]

Bertha seems to be on a more NW heading (add lat/lon grid to see):

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[cheezyWXguy]

Bertha seems to be on a more northerly heading:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

I thought so too, but it appears to have just been a wobble, and it looks to be back on its previous w-wnw heading

['CaneFreak]

Bertha seems to be on a more NW heading (add lat/lon grid to see):

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

Its stairstepping Frank.....like it has for 500 to 600 miles now...nm...yeah...more like about 290 or so now....

[Bane]

Bertha seems to be on a more NW heading (add lat/lon grid to see):

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

definitely more west northwest now.

[Category 5]

It's clearly moving WNW as scheduled.

[cycloneye]

A very nice looking hurricane:

[dixiebreeze]

07/1145 UTC 19.4N 50.7W T4.5/4.5 BERTHA -- Atlantic Ocean

Cat 2 coming up

[Scorpion]

It's an absolute travesty that there are no scheduled recon flights into this system. This is at least 90 kt right now.

[littlevince]

Take a look at the IR loops to get a better view. IMO, it was just the combination of the big blowup of convection wrapping around and the moderate southerly shear effecting the storm. I'm guessing it will clear up in within the next couple of hours. Didn't look anything like an ERC to me because the original eye was never that well defined and there hasn't appeared to be a second eyewall (or even a complete main eyewall) in the microwave images.

By the way, was this an ERC early today ?


Loop: http://img135.imageshack.us/img135/9859 ... r05oa3.gif

[Category 5]

A very nice looking hurricane:

Steady strengthening since yesterday is clearly continuing. Certainly going to be Category 2 at 5pm.

[Category 5]

Take a look at the IR loops to get a better view. IMO, it was just the combination of the big blowup of convection wrapping around and the moderate southerly shear effecting the storm. I'm guessing it will clear up in within the next couple of hours. Didn't look anything like an ERC to me because the original eye was never that well defined and there hasn't appeared to be a second eyewall (or even a complete main eyewall) in the microwave images.

By the way, was this an ERC early today ?


Loop: http://img135.imageshack.us/img135/9859 ... r05oa3.gif

Doesn't look like it. They usually take considerably longer then that also.

[george_r_1961]

It's an absolute travesty that there are no scheduled recon flights into this system. This is at least 90 kt right now.

Its not going to threaten land for several days if at all. With the high cost of fuel im sure they are being more selective as to what systems are investigated.