ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[wxman57]

Confidently, I'd say final landfall somewhere between about Veracruz and Tampa for now

57,that is a supergiant cone there.

At least you're off the hook!

[Lowpressure]

He will have to slow down first. Until we see a decrease in forward speed, an immediate turn does not seem likely. Also the increase in strength came faster than most models could anticipate. Gustav gets much stronger and he may become a driving factor not a follower, he will be more difficult to steer away from poleward. The ridge needs to be established with no breaks, soon. IMO.

[cheezyWXguy]

He will have to slow down first. Until we see a decrease in forward speed, an immediate turn does not seem likely. Also the increase in strength came faster than most models could anticipate. Gustav gets much stronger and he may become a driving factor not a follower, he will be more difficult to steer away from poleward. The ridge needs to be established with no breaks, soon. IMO.

He has already slowed down, moving less than 10mph now if Im correct. Turn should begin in a couple hours, just as it makes landfall or just before.

[HURAKAN]

He will have to slow down first.

8/25 REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH.

8/26 REPEATING THE 800 AM EDT MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH.

Also remember that Fay turned without having to crawl.

[perk]

JB just updated his blog and believes Florida is "off the hook." He's pretty much in agreement with the consensus of this being a monster Gulf storm and hitting someone west of Florida.

Portstorm i guess after that initial forecast on Gustav and the bad forecast on Fay he is being a little more careful on pinpointing an exact landfall.

[Sean in New Orleans]

This storm has got me very uneasy. Do I think that lightning will strike twice with Gustav and Katrina? No---that is VERY rare for storms to hit at the exact same spot. It could hit anywhere in the GOM. However, you better believe they will evacuate New Orleans real quick. That could be a pretty significant inconvenience. Initial guestimations on my part would be a Texas hit---most models are trending fairly far South. We've got plenty of time to watch.

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

If you watch the water vapor loop, the dark dry area to the north of Gustav has slowly edged southward over the loop (is that part of the ridge?)...I don't see how Gustav can move much more North against that...the turn may start within the next few hours...

I was just watching this and noting the ridge is much further south than I thought. You can see the clouds north of gustav moving from east to west as well.

[cycloneye]

[sunny]

This storm has got me very uneasy. Do I think that lightning will strike twice with Gustav and Katrina? No---that is VERY rare for storms to hit at the exact same spot.

ummmm, Ivan in 2004 and Dennis in 2005?

[mvtrucking]

Right now prayers are needed for the folks in Haiti as they get ready for a possible Cat 2 landfall.

[Meso]

That's a fairly large blow up on the SW side. The storm is starting to grow a bit. Not yet the prettiest storm, but I got a feeling with the new convection blooming, once it starts wrapping around nicely it shall improve it's looks.

[cpdaman]

with a storm with a tiny wind radii such is this , the biggest threat in haiti remains flooding

[ConvergenceZone]

This is looking more and more like a Yukatan storm. Even the latest TWO stresses that this may be turning westward and that the track is probably too far right...Perhaps WXMAN was right afterall calling for a Yukatan hit. I wouldn't be suprised if the Gulf of Mexico is out of the track by tonight or tomorrow......Even so, this can be a dangerous hurricane....

[Ed Mahmoud]

This storm has got me very uneasy. Do I think that lightning will strike twice with Gustav and Katrina? No---that is VERY rare for storms to hit at the exact same spot. It could hit anywhere in the GOM. However, you better believe they will evacuate New Orleans real quick. That could be a pretty significant inconvenience. Initial guestimations on my part would be a Texas hit---most models are trending fairly far South. We've got plenty of time to watch.

WxMan57 said high pressure is large and in charge. I'd unofficially guess at worst, a near border Dolly type landfall, although stronger. But I'll keep an eye open, and since I'll be in Austin Saturday and Sunday, if there appears even a remote chance this effects my general part of Texas, I'll do some minor stocking up Friday, just in case I return to a panic Sunday night. I stocked up ahead of Edouard, so I don't need massive provisions, but I have been drinking the bottled water.

[poof121]

000
FXUS64 KLIX 260928
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
428 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2008

.SHORT TERM...
RUNNING A TAD LATE WORKING ON EXTRACURRICULAR ACTIVITY REGARDING
GUSTAV AND THE PROSPECTS OR THE NORTH GULF OF MEXICO. MORE ON THAT
IN EXTENDED. MEANWHILE...TRAILING TROUGH FROM REMNANTS OF FAY...NOW OVER
NORTHWEST ALABAMA NEAR TUSCALOOSA...IS SERVING AS A COOL FRONT OF
SORTS WITH DRIER AIR CONTINUING THROUGH INFILTRATE THE AREA ON A
NORTHWEST WIND. WILL INDICATE 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY ON DAYTIME HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. THE NEXT FEW DAYS SHOULD
BE RELATIVELY DRY AND HOT...WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND NORMAL
THROUGH THURSDAY. 24

.LONG TERM...
THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND SHOULD BE NICE FOR THE MOST PART LOCALLY BUT
WITH A DEGREE OF UNEASINESS AS HURRICANE GUSTAV APPEARS POISED TO
MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF BY WAY OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ON
SUNDAY. THE FORECAST PERIOD BEYOND MONDAY WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT
ON FUTURE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF GUSTAV. CLIMATOLOGICALLY...WE ARE
NEARING THE PEAK OF THE SEASON...WHICH IS SEPTEMBER 10TH. THE
FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER SHOWS 10 NAMED STORMS DIRECTLY IMPACTING
OUR FORECAST AREA SINCE 1851. CONDITIONS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO
LOOK FAVORABLE FOR MAINTAINING HURRICANE INTENSITY THROUGH THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL WHERE THE HIGHEST HEAT CONTENT IS FOUND. AN EDDY
OF VERY WARM WATERS RESIDES AROUND 25N 90W BUT WATER HEAT CONTENT
AND DEPTH REALLY FALL OFF NORTH OF 27N...WHICH MAY WORK IN
SOMEONE`S FAVOR WHEREVER GUSTAV ULTIMATELY TREKS. DEEP LAYERED
WIND PROFILES OVER THE SYSTEM WOULD SUPPORT MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS
IN THE CATEGORY 3 RANGE...AND A FEW OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
INTENSITY MODELS DO RAMP INTENSITY OF GUSTAV INTO LOW END CATEGORY
5 THOUGH A MAJORITY OF THE MODELS LEVEL OFF IN THE LOW END
CATEGORY 3...WHICH LOCAL RESEARCH SUPPORTS. HOPE THE ADDED
INFORMATION WAS WORTH THE TARDINESS. TIME WILL TELL IF WE MAY BE
FACED WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF DESTINY ALONG OUR SHORES. CLOSE
ATTENTION TO THIS SYSTEM WILL BE PRUDENT OVER THE LABOR DAY
WEEKEND. 24

&&

.AVIATION...
LOW CLOUD DECKS WILL REMAIN FOR A WHILE THIS MORNING FROM SW MISS TO
SLIDELL AND OVER THE COAST OF MISS. MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS MORNING AT THE MCB AND GPT TERMINALS
BUT WILL GRADUALLY BREAK THESE CEILINGS BY NOON. LINEAR CONVECTION
SHOULD FORM FROM WEST TO EAST EITHER NEAR OR OVER THE MSY TERMINAL
TODAY BRINING THE POSSIBILITY OF TS IN THAT AREA. ALL TERMINALS
SHOULD BREAK OUT OF INSTRUMENT NAVIGATION RELIANCE BY WED. 17

.MARINE...
A WAKE TROUGH LEFT OVER FROM THE REMNANTS OF FAY CONTINUES TO
AGGRAVATE CONDITIONS OVER THE OUTER GULF WATERS EAST OF THE MISS
RIVER. THE ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH TODAY
AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
BE HIGHER IN AND AROUND AREAS OF SH/TS. THE LINE OF CONVECTION
OFFSHORE THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TODAY WITH STABILITY
INCREASING OVER THE GULF WATERS. AS INSTABILITY TAKES HOLD
ONSHORE...THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO RELOCATED INLAND SOMEWHERE NEAR
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AROUND NOON. 17

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 88 70 94 72 / 30 10 20 10
BTR 88 73 93 72 / 30 10 20 10
MSY 89 75 91 76 / 30 10 20 10
GPT 88 74 92 73 / 30 10 20 10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR GMZ575.

MS...NONE.
GM...&&

$$


very nervous discussion from New Orleans this morning...

[Ed Mahmoud]

This is looking more and more like a Yukatan storm. Even the latest TWO stresses that this may be turning westward and that the track is probably too far right...Perhaps WXMAN was right afterall calling for a Yukatan hit. I wouldn't be suprised if the Gulf of Mexico is out of the track by tonight or tomorrow......Even so, this can be a dangerous hurricane....

6Z GFDL says major near NOLA...

[hial2]

This is looking more and more like a Yukatan storm. Even the latest TWO stresses that this may be turning westward and that the track is probably too far right...Perhaps WXMAN was right afterall calling for a Yukatan hit. I wouldn't be suprised if the Gulf of Mexico is out of the track by tonight or tomorrow......Even so, this can be a dangerous hurricane....

Hurricane Gilbert began @ same area...

[ROCK]

This storm has got me very uneasy. Do I think that lightning will strike twice with Gustav and Katrina? No---that is VERY rare for storms to hit at the exact same spot. It could hit anywhere in the GOM. However, you better believe they will evacuate New Orleans real quick. That could be a pretty significant inconvenience. Initial guestimations on my part would be a Texas hit---most models are trending fairly far South. We've got plenty of time to watch.

WxMan57 said high pressure is large and in charge. I'd unofficially guess at worst, a near border Dolly type landfall, although stronger. But I'll keep an eye open, and since I'll be in Austin Saturday and Sunday, if there appears even a remote chance this effects my general part of Texas, I'll do some minor stocking up Friday, just in case I return to a panic Sunday night. I stocked up ahead of Edouard, so I don't need massive provisions, but I have been drinking the bottled water.

Now come on Ed, you dont stock up for a non- threatening hurricane do you? I would have thought different.........

Ed have a wager for you. If it does hit STX or any part of TX LOCK the "Texas season over thread" and never bring it up again......sound good

[Chris_in_Tampa]

This is looking more and more like a Yukatan storm. Even the latest TWO stresses that this may be turning westward and that the track is probably too far right...Perhaps WXMAN was right afterall calling for a Yukatan hit. I wouldn't be suprised if the Gulf of Mexico is out of the track by tonight or tomorrow......Even so, this can be a dangerous hurricane....

I don't see anything in the TWO or TWD that says that. The storm is right of the track at the moment and the models are close to the NHC track.

[ROCK]

This is looking more and more like a Yukatan storm. Even the latest TWO stresses that this may be turning westward and that the track is probably too far right...Perhaps WXMAN was right afterall calling for a Yukatan hit. I wouldn't be suprised if the Gulf of Mexico is out of the track by tonight or tomorrow......Even so, this can be a dangerous hurricane....

6Z GFDL says major near NOLA...

6 days out I think the GFDL destroys every major city in the CONUS......