TC Bertha

[Air Force Met]

Because the official forecasts were convenent to me, and 3 hours basically seemed irrelevant. so maybe in 3 hours Bertha moved 0.2N 0.8W. So now you have a difference that was more like -0.9N +2.8W from forecast. That's maybe -27N +170W nautical miles from forecast. That's still significant. Of course forecast track will be closer to actual as each forecast point becomes closer to the current time. But the forecast track has been tending to the left and has not been static.

The reason for the difference...especially in the first forecasts...is due solely to the increase in forward speed...not in any trend of the track to the west. Bertha was moving very fast on Sat and Sun (20 MPH+)...and that pushed the track to the west. Plus...early tracks are always bad.

But if you look at the track issued at 21Z on Friday...and compare it to now...they were only off by 60 miles to the WNW...which is really good....and they also indicated the turn would begin at about this time...which is is.

[weatherwoman]

Can anyone tell me what Joe Bastardi is saying from Accuweather on Bertha I have not been able to get on yet this year anyone know?

[ncweatherwizard]

Is it undergoing an ERC or why did the eye get obscured?

Take a look at the IR loops to get a better view. IMO, it was just the combination of the big blowup of convection wrapping around and the moderate southerly shear effecting the storm. I'm guessing it will clear up in within the next couple of hours. Didn't look anything like an ERC to me because the original eye was never that well defined and there hasn't appeared to be a second eyewall (or even a complete main eyewall) in the microwave images.

Yep, thanks for clarification.

Granted that's an old microwave from earlier this morning. But combine that with the visible image...



...and tell me that that's not an ERC.

[Ed Mahmoud]

It's an absolute travesty that there are no scheduled recon flights into this system. This is at least 90 kt right now.

Its not going to threaten land for several days if at all. With the high cost of fuel im sure they are being more selective as to what systems are investigated.

More than the high price of fuel is the distance involved to the nearest divert base in case of a mechanical problem, for a storm that doesn't pose an immediate threat to any land.

If they start flying Thursday that will still give more accurate info a day and a half or more before any possible strike on Bermuda.

[vacanechaser]

Can anyone tell me what Joe Bastardi is saying from Accuweather on Bertha I have not been able to get on yet this year anyone know?

he still see a possible storm, bertha that is in the bahamas, or north of there i should say... but he is starting to give it up... he said that he can see where it would find a way out with it getting stronger....


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[Category 5]

Granted that's an old microwave from earlier this morning. But combine that with the visible image...



...and tell me that that's not an ERC.

Well I'd think the NHC would mention it in the discussion.

[Derek Ortt]

that is nothing even remotely like an EWRC on the microwave passes

[AJC3]

Regarding the expected turn to the right, I've compiled the forecast predictions for 5AM AST today from Thursday through Sunday, and then today's actual position for comparison:
Forecast postion 7/3 through 7/7:
20.0N 46.5W 07/0600Z 03/0900Z
19.0N 48.0W 07/0600Z 04/0900Z
19.0N 49.3W 07/0600Z 05/0900Z
18.7N 49.5W 07/0600Z 06/0900Z

Actual:
19.3N 50.2W 07/0900Z 07/0900Z

From what I'm seeing, Bertha has tracked considerably west of forecast with direction more to the west. Much of the latitude difference from yesterday's forecast appears to be from the northern relocation of the LLC in the last 24 hours.

Need to correct you here... AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 49.4W

Remember, these forecasts are not from the advisory time (09Z)...they are from the previous synoptic time (06Z). That's why the VTs for all those forecasts are 07/06Z.

[cheezyWXguy]

Granted that's an old microwave from earlier this morning. But combine that with the visible image...



...and tell me that that's not an ERC.

Well I'd think the NHC would mention it in the discussion.

It's not an ERC...there are no consecutive eyewalls. A good example of an ERC about to take place are the microwaves of Wilma at her peak,and vacanechaser's avatar of charley.

[ncweatherwizard]

The microwave's from 11Z...what's with the visible presentation? Aside from that visible image above..check out some older visible images from 10Z to 11Z.

[cpdaman]

Bertha seems to be on a more NW heading (add lat/lon grid to see):

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

i think it is very close . i would guess about borderline between WNW and NW probably around 300 or 305 degrees iMO.

i think this is because it is feeling a little pull from the area to the north, which is supposed to ease away and turn this thing more true wnw/w for a day and a half and then a turn nw will take this near 29/62. the big question remains will the first trough lift it out , will it stall than lift out (w/ possible loops) or lastly will it get pushed to the west (and how far).

The path means little to me over the next 4 days, it's what the models decide to do with the storm over the next couple days (regarding post friday movement) that i have my eye on. ALSO being a small storm the possibilty of it weakening again (should it be more effected than currently forecast by mid-level shear) in a couple days could make the path less certain.

[cycloneye]

Getting very close to the 20n line:

[Seele]

By the way, was this an ERC early today ?

That's very interesting right there. Looks like a center relocation though I didn't think that could happen in this organized of a storm. Where did you get those images?

Being real speculative, and I'm not sure how to explain this well, maybe the cloud structure and the eye (at higher levels) got tilted to the north. The storm then carved out a new eye above the actual surface circulation.

[hurricanefloyd5]

By the way, was this an ERC early today ?

That's very interesting right there. Looks like a center relocation though I didn't think that could happen in this organized of a storm. Where did you get those images?

Being real speculative, and I'm not sure how to explain this well, maybe the cloud structure and the eye (at higher levels) got tilted to the north. The storm then carved out a new eye above the actual surface circulation.

uh what huh. Did I jsut miss something here??

['CaneFreak]

Bertha seems to be on a more NW heading (add lat/lon grid to see):

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

i think it is very close . i would guess about borderline between WNW and NW probably around 300 or 305 degrees iMO.

i think this is because it is feeling a little pull from the area to the north, which is supposed to ease away and turn this thing more true wnw/w for a day and a half and then a turn nw will take this near 29/62. the big question remains will the first trough lift it out , will it stall than lift out (w/ possible loops) or lastly will it get pushed to the west (and how far).

The path means little to me over the next 4 days, it's what the models decide to do with the storm over the next couple days (regarding post friday movement) that i have my eye on.

Latest GFS suggests a stall over Bermuda (24 hour duration) and then out to sea. Could be devastating for them. The model controversy has pretty much ended in my mind with the current intensity of the storm and the future intensity of this storm.

[wjs3]

Granted that's an old microwave from earlier this morning. But combine that with the visible image...



...and tell me that that's not an ERC.

Well I'd think the NHC would mention it in the discussion.

It's not an ERC...there are no consecutive eyewalls. A good example of an ERC about to take place are the microwaves of Wilma at her peak,and vacanechaser's avatar of charley.

I think the mimic imagery does a really nice job of demonstrating eyewall replacements. Here's a good one from Ivan...note how an outer eyewall forms encircling (cutting off) the inner eyewall with a moat between the two...then the outer contracts to complete the cycle.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... ivan1.html

[Derek Ortt]

looks like the chances of a USA landfall are currently slim and none, and slim is searching for the door. Hoping he can find it

[kpost]

Take a look at the IR loops to get a better view. IMO, it was just the combination of the big blowup of convection wrapping around and the moderate southerly shear effecting the storm. I'm guessing it will clear up in within the next couple of hours. Didn't look anything like an ERC to me because the original eye was never that well defined and there hasn't appeared to be a second eyewall (or even a complete main eyewall) in the microwave images.

By the way, was this an ERC early today ?


[url]Loop: http://img135.imageshack.us/img135/9859 ... r05oa3.gif[/url]

bump for hurricanefloyd5

['CaneFreak]

looks like the chances of a USA landfall are currently slim and none, and slim is searching for the door. Hoping he can find it

You just had to say that didn't you!!! Now a 1035 mb high will set in right behind the first trough and steer this thing west.....LOL....

[Seele]

By the way, was this an ERC early today ?

That's very interesting right there. Looks like a center relocation though I didn't think that could happen in this organized of a storm. Where did you get those images?

Being real speculative, and I'm not sure how to explain this well, maybe the cloud structure and the eye (at higher levels) got tilted to the north. The storm then carved out a new eye above the actual surface circulation.

uh what huh. Did I jsut miss something here??

Here's a link to hurricanefloyd5's post w/ the pictures if that's what you mean: viewtopic.php?p=1730755#p1730755.

If you mean my attempt at an explanation, I don't think I can explain it too well. Just trying to think of the storm three dimensionally and take a shot at an explanation. I'm probably full of it though I don't think it's an ERC because a second eyewall doesn't form around the first one and collapse it. The storm just blows the first eye away and creates a second one.