ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[weatherrabbit_tx]

Definite breakdown of the ridge.

I know the gfs did good with dolly and I think gus?

[Ed Mahmoud]

Recurves just in time to spare Texas a direct hit.

[Dean4Storms]

Looks like NE Texas to SW LA

[vaffie]

Looks like it will be SW LA this run.

[ROCK]

Recurves just in time to spare Texas a direct hit.

We are saved!!!

Edit to add: Ed, your "Texas Season Over" Thread in August holds true.....

[srainhoutx]

Trough moves E over KS at 138 hrs

[vaffie]

Wow, apparently it boils down to when the ridge breaks down--and the difference is like four or five hours.

[Stratosphere747]

I know the gfs did good with dolly and I think gus?

It seems to have done well this year and the NHC mentions it every so often in the discos compared to the others. Then again it does having problems showing a storm at times and did so with Gustav for quite awhile.

[AL Chili Pepper]

SW LA it is. Another one of those cases of just how far the ridge extends west...a la Rita.

[Ivanhater]

Wow, apparently it boils down to when the ridge breaks down--and the difference is like four or five hours.

almost a week out, you could be looking at ridge breakdowns and trough progressions change from 6 hours to 2 day swings...someone is gonna get slammed

[Stratosphere747]

[deltadog03]

Shifted a bit east....The ridge breaks down a bit quicker...Now, slow that down about 12 hours and it could be easily EAST of there. Thats why anyone on the gulf coast needs to pay attention.

[HouTXmetro]

I'm spliting the difference between the GFS and EURO.

[ROCK]

Shifted a bit east....The ridge breaks down a bit quicker...Now, slow that down about 12 hours and it could be easily EAST of there. Thats why anyone on the gulf coast needs to pay attention.

all about timing.....

[Duddy]

Anyone else think that it's just alittle strange that major storms keep hitting that same area? Does God hate I10?

[perk]

I'm spliting the difference between the GFS and EURO.

That would put Ike somewhere between Corpus & Galveston.

[Weatherfreak000]

This inclusion of the trough is big time evidence there is absolutely ZERO model certainty right now.

[Ivanhater]

Gets picked up by the trough and heading NE shortly after landfall...7 days out, the trough progression will be very important when the ridge breaks down, and the trough picks Ike up and turns him NE...the nogaps and HWRF are showing it sooner...once again, all the gulf coasters are on alert...

[perk]

Shifted a bit east....The ridge breaks down a bit quicker...Now, slow that down about 12 hours and it could be easily EAST of there. Thats why anyone on the gulf coast needs to pay attention.

all about timing.....

Checked the 12Z run and they are almost identical.

[Jagno]

Anyone else think that it's just alittle strange that major storms keep hitting that same area? Does God hate I10?

Living in Bay City I'd think you'd realize that I-10 parallels the Gulf.