ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[Viper54r]

Shifted a bit east....The ridge breaks down a bit quicker...Now, slow that down about 12 hours and it could be easily EAST of there. Thats why anyone on the gulf coast needs to pay attention.

all about timing.....

Checked the 12Z run and they are almost identical.

Huh?

[Dean4Storms]

Gets picked up by the trough and heading NE shortly after landfall...7 days out, the trough progression will be very important when the ridge breaks down, and the trough picks Ike up and turns him NE...the nogaps and HWRF are showing it sooner...once again, all the gulf coasters are on alert...

I have to say I like my chances now of it being further west, but with a 300 miles error at 5 days this storm could be anywhere from the FL Panhandle westward. Agree that the timing will be key and this solution could change drastically this far out.

[weatherrabbit_tx]

Anyone else think that it's just alittle strange that major storms keep hitting that same area? Does God hate I10?

Living in Bay City I'd think you'd realize that I-10 parallels the Gulf.

one might think if you east of texas, I live south of I-10 for over 30 years and thought that the winter gods hated us for no winter, haha....anywho if ike came at us like rita did I know I will catch the wind from it. during rita the lake conroe area had 60 mph gusts which ruined the riprock or whatever you call it along the dam here and took a year or so to replace

[Sabanic]

Gets picked up by the trough and heading NE shortly after landfall...7 days out, the trough progression will be very important when the ridge breaks down, and the trough picks Ike up and turns him NE...the nogaps and HWRF are showing it sooner...once again, all the gulf coasters are on alert...

I have to say I like my chances now of it being further west, but with a 300 miles error at 5 days this storm could be anywhere from the FL Panhandle westward. Agree that the timing will be key and this solution could change drastically this far out.

Exactly. We are 6 days away from what would be a TX landfall. That is nearly a full week, and so many things can change in a week. I have always said that being a meteorologist is one of the only jobs you still get paid for when you make mistakes so often.

[ronjon]

Its interesting that the NOGAPs shows this trough by moving Ike eastward along the northern gulf coast from Mobile east to the FL big bend from 144 to 180 hrs. Its all going to come down to timing - forward speed of Ike and of course the second trough. The storm moves up NW into the GOM in response to the first shortwave in 2-3 days but then gets left behind and trapped by an expanding mid-level ridge. This will lead to some very slow movement, possibly stalling or looping, while getting stronger. It will be a long week of model and wobble watching.

[TTheriot1975]

What time is the UKMET to come out?

[sphelps8681]

Looks like it will be SW LA this run.

East Texas should still get something out of it. Yes?

[Ed Mahmoud]

What time is the UKMET to come out?

The 18Z comes out any time now, but only goes out to 48 hours. The tropical text version of the UK Met 0Z and 12Z comes out shortly after Midnight/Noon CDT.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Decay SHIPS says Ike is only a depression in five days...

Code: Select all

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE 

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 

1837 UTC SUN SEP 7 2008 

   

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS. 

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION. 

   

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR 

   

TROPICAL CYCLONE IKE (AL092008) 20080907 1800 UTC 

   

        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS... 

        080907  1800   080908  0600   080908  1800   080909  0600 

   

         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON 

BAMS    21.0N  74.0W   21.2N  76.7W   21.7N  79.0W   22.5N  80.8W 

BAMD    21.0N  74.0W   20.9N  76.1W   21.4N  78.1W   22.3N  80.0W 

BAMM    21.0N  74.0W   20.9N  76.3W   21.3N  78.3W   22.2N  79.9W 

LBAR    21.0N  74.0W   21.0N  76.5W   21.4N  79.2W   22.1N  81.8W 

SHIP       110KTS         112KTS         119KTS         120KTS 

DSHP       110KTS         112KTS          72KTS          51KTS 

   

        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS... 

        080909  1800   080910  1800   080911  1800   080912  1800 

   

         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON 

BAMS    23.7N  82.5W   25.7N  86.3W   26.6N  90.5W   26.6N  93.9W 

BAMD    23.5N  81.6W   25.7N  84.7W   26.8N  87.3W   27.5N  91.3W 

BAMM    23.5N  81.6W   25.9N  85.3W   26.7N  89.1W   26.5N  93.1W 

LBAR    22.9N  84.3W   24.7N  88.5W   25.8N  91.9W   26.2N  93.6W 

SHIP       122KTS         119KTS         107KTS          95KTS 

DSHP        51KTS          47KTS          35KTS          23KTS 

   

         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS... 

LATCUR =  21.0N LONCUR =  74.0W DIRCUR = 265DEG SPDCUR =  12KT 

LATM12 =  21.2N LONM12 =  71.6W DIRM12 = 263DEG SPDM12 =  12KT 

LATM24 =  21.5N LONM24 =  69.1W 

WNDCUR =  110KT RMAXWD =   15NM WNDM12 =  115KT 

CENPRS =  950MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD =  200NM SDEPTH =   D 

RD34NE =  125NM RD34SE =  125NM RD34SW =  100NM RD34NW = 125NM 

   

$$ 

NNNN 

 


[jhpigott]

shouldn't the 18z GDFL and HWRF be coming out soon?

[deltadog03]

One thing 18z did do is, as previously stated, further EAST. I also noticed that the quick hook N then NE does happen. Ridge breaks down quicker as well. Give this 12-18 more hours in the gom, then that quick hook could easily happen further east.

[jhpigott]

One thing 18z did do is, as previously stated, further EAST. I also noticed that the quick hook N then NE does happen. Ridge breaks down quicker as well. Give this 12-18 more hours in the gom, then that quick hook could easily happen further east.

which 18z model are you talking about?

[TTheriot1975]

yes what 18z are you referring to again?

[deltadog03]

The GFS....

[TTheriot1975]

what about the GFDL and HWRF? Where are they?

[rockyman]

18z HWRF shifts toward TX/LA area (I don't have a publicly available link yet)

[setxweathergal]

Looks like it will be SW LA this run.

East Texas should still get something out of it. Yes?

Rita!!! Well, I guess in all fairness Rita was EXTREME SW LA. But yes, I'd say so!

[deltadog03]

Not out yet....one more thing before going back to work. Just as there is no real data plots for the ATL ocean, we need noaa for that, we equally don't have any over pac ocean and into the NW territories either. Tonights 00z models might be a little better as the shortwave coming into our air network up there will be better sampled.

[rockyman]

HWRF hooks north at the very end of the cycle...toward SW LA

[PTPatrick]

That last HWRF at 12z that takes it up to Mobile looks like shear or something sets in and rips it up...brings it down to a borderline Cat 1/TS approaching landfall. Thats a long way from the Cat 5 monster it showed yesterday