TC Bertha

[dixiebreeze]

Looks like she could be steered back westerly in about 72 hours:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... testBW.gif

[storms in NC]

There is a High right above her now. why she is going North Is a surprise to me she should be moving WNW or W if any thing Not North Can some one tell be Why? Or is it a weak high?

[cycloneye]

We have a cat 2: 90kts.

07/1745 UTC 19.8N 51.6W T5.0/5.0 BERTHA -- Atlantic Ocean


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/CI-chart.html

[pojo]

thank you Ed. With a storm that is north of the islands, it is harder to find a close divert airport that WE have approval to land at.

You don't have approval to land in Bermuda? Although that only helps once it is in the 25N-40N range.

yes we have approval to land in bermuda... but if the storm is bearing down on Bermuda, we can't land there........ for safety reason.

[dwg71]

my uneducated novice opinion based on current motion, setup and models. I see this missing bermuda to the east at least by 250 miles.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Looks like she could be steered back westerly in about 72 hours:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... testBW.gif

Ive always loved these drawlings that look like my 5 year old drew..Do they Ever verify? LOL

[Frank2]

There is a High right above her now. Why she is going North is a surprise to me she should be moving WNW or W if any thing not north can someone tell be why? Or is it a weak high?

There's been a trough to the north of 20N and west of 50W for the past several days, and, since it's strengthened, it's more prone to turn to the right (or north) into the trough, than had Bertha remained as weak as it was over the weekend, so, even though there's high pressure over the top of the system, that doesn't affect where it will go...

[Thunder44]

There is a High right above her now. why she is going North Is a surprise to me she should be moving WNW or W if any thing Not North Can some one tell be Why? Or is it a weak high?

15z CIMSS analysis shows a weakeness ridge at the 400 - 850mb level:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm3.html

The stronger she gets the more she's feels it, in the upper-levels.

[cycloneye]

ATCF 18:00 Update=90kts,970 mbs:

AL, 02, 2008070718, , BEST, 0, 199N, 516W, 90, 970, HU, 64, NEQ, 20, 0, 0, 20,

[Sjones]

Is Recon scheduled to go out anytime soon?

[DESTRUCTION5]

ATCF 18:00 Update=90kts,970 mbs:

AL, 02, 2008070718, , BEST, 0, 199N, 516W, 90, 970, HU, 64, NEQ, 20, 0, 0, 20,

I smell record ACE for July coming next..

[pojo]

Is Recon scheduled to go out anytime soon?

nope.

Unless CARCAH amends the POD....

[TheEuropean]

Wow...

UW-CIMSS Automated Satellite-Based
Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT)
Version 7.2
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation Algorithm

Current Intensity Analysis

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 07 JUL 2008 Time : 174500 UTC
Lat : 19:56:52 N Lon : 51:30:26 W

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.6 / 958.9mb/104.6kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
5.6 6.2 6.2

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +1.3mb
Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 16 km
Center Temp : +5.6C Cloud Region Temp : -64.5C

Scene Type : EYE
Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
****************************************************

[arkestra]

ATCF 18:00 Update=90kts,970 mbs:

AL, 02, 2008070718, , BEST, 0, 199N, 516W, 90, 970, HU, 64, NEQ, 20, 0, 0, 20,

I smell record ACE for July coming next..

Record ACE? and 2005?

[WmE]

Very impressive system for July. I'd go with 90 kts now.

[WmE]

Emily had an ACE of 32.9 in July 2005. I doubt Bertha will reach that, I could be wrong though.

[TheEuropean]

Very impressive system for July. I'd go with 90 kts now.

We have nearly two hours to the next update. May be 90 kts are too low.

[txwatcher91]

What does ACE mean? I remember the term from 05 but don't recall what it means.

[Scorpion]

Well if Bertha stalls around Bermuda and stays intense then she likely could set the ACE single storm record for July.

[RL3AO]

What does ACE mean? I remember the term from 05 but don't recall what it means.

Accumulated cyclone energy.