ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[Aric Dunn]

That looks like a remnant eddy at St. Martin

right , most likely , but it is in line with the previous postions. and there is low level curved band slightly wrapping into it. I agree it should break down and something should take shape near that ridiculus Mid level circ

although my confidence in that being the present postion it raised a little higher with the observations out of Sanit kitts which is reporting SSW wind . they are located just south of St.martin .

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/TKPK.html

http://www.paradise-islands.org/images/Leeward.jpg

[KWT]

Yep thats the leftover LLC that we had yesterday to the SW of the convection, new center should be forming under the MLC and deep convection right now.

Steve, the only risk would be if this underwent some RI. IF the LLC is well stacked given its got very good upper conditons and warm waters I wouldn't rule out rapid strengthening.

[Sanibel]

Aric: Look at the inflowing mid-surface clouds over Guadeloupe. If your center were the center they would have to do an awkward turn back towards your center after racing in towards the CDO from the SW.

[haml8]

Does anyone have a good resource for understanding the Dvorak results? Trying to get my arms around that.

[HURAKAN]

Does anyone have a good resource for understanding the Dvorak results? Trying to get my arms around that.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/CI-chart.html

[Derek Ortt]

what we should be watching for is a surprise storm like Debby 1994

[haml8]

Does anyone have a good resource for understanding the Dvorak results? Trying to get my arms around that.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/CI-chart.html

Thank you! It is easy to get lost in the ackronyms

[gatorcane]

it seems to be bending ever so slightly WNW now or just north of W. That may mean it could skirt just north of the big islands and Puerto Rico.

[KWT]

I'm not sure they will bother that far west Sanibel when it comes to recon, clearly there is nothing there and best track will probably edit the data to show a further east center later I guess.

MLC heading seems to be around 285 looking at radar IMO.

[artist]

>>it's the reverse...weaker tracks west...strong tracks north...coriolis effect

Not necessarily. If you have been following along, you would have seen a pro-met's explanation on how 92L could be different in that regard (at a point - hey I missed it too, just saw some reference posts to that discussion). It's buried way back and the search feature is inactive, so good luck finding it. But it might be something worth looking at down the road to see what the reasoning was and how that could apply down the road in future, similar situations.

As for the lead time for Puerto Rico, I'm guessing an STDs would be issued if necessary. They'll get the word out about possible flooding rains/ts conditions if warranted. This isn't a 155mph, mature system, so if it upgrades to something classifiable, they'll get the word out appropriate to the threat. It may be that Puerto Rico is reached in a down pulse if there doesn't yet (or by then) exist a low level center. Clearly the system looks good on IR, but that's IR. And that's the trickiest thing to rely on IMHO.

FWIW, for those calling for an early end of Summer, I would bring you back to 2005. Yours truly got into several arguments with people cancelling the Gulf season in early August due to some frontal activity. I claimed those "cold" fronts were precisely how the summer would be ushered into Dixie with big domes of hot, high pressure building in. Of course there was a difference in that pattern as the highs coming down were merging into the SW Atlantic Ridge, but still. Just because a front comes down doesn't mean that the summer or hurricane season is over - especially when we're still over a day from the mid-point of August.

Steve

I remember when Wilma hit us - afterwards it was very very cool. She had drawn a cold fronts winds above us down to us.

[tailgater]

I hope this is a bad ob
152930 1442N 06019W 6432 03882 0107 +072 -075 244141 143 024 000 00
Just a litttttle off.

[Aric Dunn]

That looks like a remnant eddy at St. Martin

right , most likely , but it is in line with the previous postions. and there is low level curved band slightly wrapping into it. I agree it should break down and something should take shape near that ridiculus Mid level circ

although my confidence in that being the present postion it raised a little higher with the observations out of Sanit kitts which is reporting SSW wind . they are located just south of St.martin .

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/TKPK.html

http://www.paradise-islands.org/images/Leeward.jpg

thats it (presently) anyway dont think it will maintain

[cycloneye]

Derek,what do you mean about the Debby thing?

[haml8]

Derek,what do you mean about the Debby thing?

Debby came and went in two days right? It was a severe rainmaker that dissapated in high winds an sheer. According to SHIPS the sheer in that area is low right? do you think that it will pick up? What is leading you to that comparison?

[Derek Ortt]

Debby in 1994 was analyzed as a weak TS when it moved through the Islands

Martinique had sustained winds very near hurricane force and gusts to 85KT

That was a combination of a bizarre interpretation of the recon data (calling it a TD with 60KT flight level winds) and not anticipating the intensification

we won't see the former... but I wonder if we have missed some intensification

[KWT]

Debby was tohught to be just an open wave...recon flew in and found a 50kt tropical storm....with 70kts also found higher up!

I think he is talking about recvon today finding more then expected.

[curtadams]

What a strange storm. Very impressive MLC but there's no LLC associated with it! There are west winds (at low cloud level anyway) so you could find a circulation but it would be far to the west. Too far to be associated and the shear is in the wrong direction anyway.

[Normandy]

There has to be some kind of low level vorticity in that convection, MLC's don't sustain vigorous convection like that for this period of time...It has had this feature for nearly 10 hour now.

[dixiebreeze]

Banding underway it appears:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/rb-l.jpg

[gtsmith]

are we at the point to were the stronger this storm gets the farther west it gose and the weaker it is the farther north it gose?????????

it's the reverse...weaker tracks west...strong tracks north...coriolis effect

not true at all


stronger often tracks north because of the deeper steering flow dictating a northern track

In my own defense, then I am done with this (cited from wiki, which was cited from other sources including my brother who is a meteorolgist with the FAA):

The Earth's rotation imparts an acceleration known as the Coriolis effect, Coriolis acceleration, or colloquially, Coriolis force. This acceleration causes cyclonic systems to turn towards the poles in the absence of strong steering currents. The poleward portion of a tropical cyclone contains easterly winds, and the Coriolis effect pulls them slightly more poleward. The westerly winds on the equatorward portion of the cyclone pull slightly towards the equator, but, because the Coriolis effect weakens toward the equator, the net drag on the cyclone is poleward. Thus, tropical cyclones in the Northern Hemisphere usually turn north (before being blown east), and tropical cyclones in the Southern Hemisphere usually turn south (before being blown east) when no other effects counteract the Coriolis effect.

The Coriolis effect also initiates cyclonic rotation, but it is not the driving force that brings this rotation to high speeds – that force is the heat of condensation.

Sorry Derek, but to say that what I wrote was "Not true at all" was a little out of line and a little over the top...but whatever, you're the "pro"