ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[Aric Dunn]

ok here use this site .. animate 10 images or so full zoom and click near the system .. you can see it , its likely the old one that was estiamted earlier and has moved west. im going with that as the inital position till further data would suggest a surface feature under that midlevel circ..

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

[KWT]

Yeah Normandy I'll be very surprised if recon doesn't find a closed low and enough to allow an upgrade but we shall have to wait and see I suppose.

[KWT]

Banding underway it appears:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/rb-l.jpg

Thats crazy presentation, if someone said that was a 55kt TS you would believe them, very impressive indeed!

[Extremeweatherguy]

The MLC is looking better and better by the minute! My thinking is that a LLC has formed or is forming under the MLC...



I can't wait to see what recon finds.

[Aric Dunn]

ok here use this site .. animate 10 images or so full zoom and click near the system .. you can see it , its likely the old one that was estiamted earlier and has moved west. im going with that as the inital position till further data would suggest a surface feature under that midlevel circ..

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

if you look you can clearly see banding around that rainless circ ...

[gatorcane]

Headed for just north of Puerto Rico based on this graphic:

[KWT]

Aric, I really am struggling to see anything of the sort, its just an eddy, even the dvorak estimates are much further east, I bet theres nothing there other then a quickly decaying eddy, clearly the LLC is going to form or has formed under the MLC, its so impressive right now.

Yep gatorcane a little to the north, still going to see gusty winds and rainfall for PR if thats right.

[sfwx]

what we should be watching for is a surprise storm like Debby 1994

[b]Debby brought heavy rains to Martinique with totals reaching as high as 183.8 millimeters (7.2 inches) and winds gusts as high as 90 mph. In the Dominican Republic, a weather station reported a 54 knot (63 mph) gust although Debby had already been officially downgraded to a tropical wave when this reading took place.

In St. Lucia, Debby's heavy rains caused several landslides that killed four people and injured more than 600 others. The landslides blocked main roads and closed an airport and flooding was reported in Anse La Raye. In Martinique, about 200,000 people were left without power and there was moderate tree damage. Debby's winds damaged much of the banana crop in St. Lucia and Martinique. Debby then brought 38 knot winds to Puerto Rico, and caused coastal damage that amounted to $50,000 dollars (1994 USD) and high seas left a ferry stranded. The remnants of Debby also caused isolated flooding in the Dominican Republic. There were three fatalities (all from electrocutions).

In all, Debby killed nine people and left two missing. Five were unaccounted for and more than a hundred people had been left homeless. The damage total from Debby was $230 million (1994 USD, $294 million 2005 USD).[/b]

[bvigal]

The MLC is looking better and better by the minute! My thinking is that a LLC has formed or is forming under the MLC...

I can't wait to see what recon finds.

PLEASE!!! Do NOT post live loops of our radar. Many of us (in the islands) can't get it to load - I've had 2 captains tell me that already today!!

Post the link, or a snapshot on imageshack.

[canegrl04]

Headed for just north of Puerto Rico based on this graphic:

Good for Cuba,not good for the US

[Ed Mahmoud]

Noted on recon thread, NOAA plane sending back a lot of obviously bogus data.

eg

Code: Select all

154130 1511N 06037W 6433 03884 0116 +070 -084 244146 146 025 000 00


[Aric Dunn]

Aric, I really am struggling to see anything of the sort, its just an eddy, even the dvorak estimates are much further east, I bet theres nothing there other then a quickly decaying eddy, clearly the LLC is going to form or has formed under the MLC, its so impressive right now.

i have been saying all a long that the center should form near that mid level .. but right now that LLC is in line with the earlier position estiamtes and is likely what they based that off of .. and right now we have nothing else to go off of until recon gets out there..

[Just Joshing You]

Wow.. quite the development in such a shot time.

[jabber]

what we should be watching for is a surprise storm like Debby 1994

I agree at least Debby unexpectedly steered left and hit the mountains

[Ivanhater]

[Aric Dunn]

The MLC is looking better and better by the minute! My thinking is that a LLC has formed or is forming under the MLC...

I can't wait to see what recon finds.

PLEASE!!! Do NOT post live loops of our radar. Many of us (in the islands) can't get it to load - I've had 2 captains tell me that already today!!

Post the link, or a snapshot on imageshack.

thats not live i made those myself by saving the individual images

[Ed Mahmoud]

The MLC is looking better and better by the minute! My thinking is that a LLC has formed or is forming under the MLC...

I can't wait to see what recon finds.

PLEASE!!! Do NOT post live loops of our radar. Many of us (in the islands) can't get it to load - I've had 2 captains tell me that already today!!

Post the link, or a snapshot on imageshack.

This is the link on the image.
http://www105.blibs.com/editor/working/ ... 1106525445


He isn't linked directly to MeteoFrance...

[fci]

:uarrow:

Its way too early to call indeed. But for those in the Bahamas, Florida and up the SE Coast of the US, maybe 92L should be a wakeup call for those who have not completed at least some preliminary hurricane preps. I'm not talking shutters or anything but maybe do a quick check on your hurricane supplies while you can (water, nonperishable items, generators, etc)

The heart of the hurricane season is not even here yet believe it or not.

I totally agree....this "could" get very ugly for someone if it does in fact develop into something more then just a tropical storm. Possibly a slow mover.

Slow mover would be a good thing if it indeed turns out to threaten islands/CONUS.
More time for people, who might otherwise be caught by surprise; to prepare.

I know for our area, if and when we get into the "cone" the media will jump on it and we will get a lot of updates during Olympics Coverage which will alert most to the situation.

[Honeyko]

Aside from Vance, are there any other instances of a non-subtropical Atlantic system being immediately assigned hurricane status?

[JonathanBelles]

Wow.. quite the development in such a shot time.

Cyclops!