ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[Sanibel]

Smart people won't commit to track with a slow-mover.

[ericinmia]

What happens if that ull and the convection with pseudo old 95l gets close to Gustav?
For whatever its worth, it appears to be moving MUCH faster toward Gustav than he is moving away.
I have some ideas... but I'd like to hear a Met chime in on it.

[93superstorm]

It continues to intensify. Now showing stronger cloud tops above -80 north and south of the center. Also the Eye is starting to show more now on the Avn:

[dwg71]

nhc seems to be left of consensous of models at end of track. But not by much. I do think DR will have a bigger impact than forecast, maybe down to 60kts after its exit. I think the path closer to the mountians is to blame.

[gatorcane]

What happens if that ull and the convection with pseudo old 95l gets close to Gustav?
For whatever its worth, it appears to be moving MUCH faster toward Gustav than he is moving away.
I have some ideas... but I'd like to hear a Met chime in on it.

The CLIPPER solution takes this ULL into account (and forecasts weaker heights across the Bahamas and Florida) and brings Gustav NNW into the Bahamas --

of course all of the other dynamic model guidance disagrees so I doubt CLIPPER is going to verify.

[x-y-no]

The CLIPPER solution takes this ULL into account (and forecasts weaker heights across the Bahamas and Florida) and brings Gustav NNW into the Bahamas --

of course all of the other dynamic model guidance disagrees so I doubt CLIPPER is going to verify.

If you're talking about climatology and persistence, that doesn't take anything into account other than past statistics.

Or is CLIPPER something else I've never heard of? If that's the case, they ought to name it something else in order to avoid confusion.

[Steve]

>>Now this is an excellent post. You can't fight climatology and I believe it's working in the central GOM's favor.

Yeah, but climatology says that it's not going to snow in New Orleans and especially not on Christmas Day. Enter Christmas 2004. You never know. Glad the early trends are this way so we can watch them evolve elsewhere.

Steve

[ericinmia]

The CLIPPER solution takes this ULL into account (and forecasts weaker heights across the Bahamas and Florida) and brings Gustav NNW into the Bahamas --

of course all of the other dynamic model guidance disagrees so I doubt CLIPPER is going to verify.

If you're talking about climatology and persistence, that doesn't take anything into account other than past statistics.

Or is CLIPPER something else I've never heard of? If that's the case, they ought to name it something else in order to avoid confusion.

You are correct, the CLIPPER is simply climatology and persistence.

[Agua]

If you're talking about climatology and persistence, that doesn't take anything into account other than past statistics.

Or is CLIPPER something else I've never heard of? If that's the case, they ought to name it something else in order to avoid confusion.

Yeah, that.

[Bocadude85]

If the high is building why are the thunderstorms of the coast of Florida moving from south to north?

[drezee]

may those in hispanola be blessed, flooding is going to be horrible

[HouTXmetro]

>>Now this is an excellent post. You can't fight climatology and I believe it's working in the central GOM's favor.

Yeah, but climatology says that it's not going to snow in New Orleans and especially not on Christmas Day. Enter Christmas 2004. You never know. Glad the early trends are this way so we can watch them evolve elsewhere.

Steve

http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/i ... _climo.gif

Climo suggest W Gulf or Panhandle

[tgenius]

If the high is building why are the thunderstorms of the coast of Florida moving from south to north?

You know.. thats a good question, I noticed on my Miami Radar that as I was wondering if those would come to Lake O like the ones yest did.

[x-y-no]

If the high is building why are the thunderstorms of the coast of Florida moving from south to north?

Winds at MIA are southerly up to 700mb.

At 500mb, the wind is NE.

[cpdaman]

If the high is building why are the thunderstorms of the coast of Florida moving from south to north?

You know.. thats a good question, I noticed on my Miami Radar that as I was wondering if those would come to Lake O like the ones yest did.

perhaps the high is just at the mid levels? enough to steer deeper systems but not shower/tstorms or the high is progged to build west as fay move NE.

[Stormcenter]

>>Now this is an excellent post. You can't fight climatology and I believe it's working in the central GOM's favor.

Yeah, but climatology says that it's not going to snow in New Orleans and especially not on Christmas Day. Enter Christmas 2004. You never know. Glad the early trends are this way so we can watch them evolve elsewhere.

Steve

Yes but it has snowed before on Christmas in N.O. before 2004 but this Gustav senario for LA. has NEVER happened before per climatology.

[Steve]

>>Climo suggest W Gulf or Panhandle

Ever used to watch the weather channel's tropical udpates? They'd show little dots representing where a storm has formed in a month or period of a month over the last 100 years or whatever. Seemed like every year they'd be adding dots farther away from the cluster and tracks without recent historical precedent. I'm not saying that Gustav won't be an eastern or western Gulf problem. But if it is, I'm relying on the science to get it there, not the history. The smart money is always on the current relevance over historical trends. Sure, you don't want to ignore something with a greater likelihood based on past experience, but past experience doesn't necessarily even mean anything. So you wait, and you watch things unfold and you see what happens and you react if you have to. Nowhere on storm2k or elsewhere have I made a call even so much as what is going to happen in the Greater Antilles. There are people much smarter than I arguing over the possibilities. I'm in watch mode. If I feel comfortable enough to make a call at some point, I will. If not, then I will watch and participate in the discussion. But just because I happen to live in South Louisiana doesn't mean I'm predicting the storm to come here or anywhere near here. That's not how I operate which you probably already know.

Steve

[Bocadude85]

Winds from the SW at 8mph in Ft Lauderdale... just a observation

[PTrackerLA]

>>Now this is an excellent post. You can't fight climatology and I believe it's working in the central GOM's favor.

Yeah, but climatology says that it's not going to snow in New Orleans and especially not on Christmas Day. Enter Christmas 2004. You never know. Glad the early trends are this way so we can watch them evolve elsewhere.

Steve

Yes but it has snowed before on Christmas in N.O. before 2004 but this Gustav senario for LA. has NEVER happened before per climatology.

So since the models seem to be indicating a threat towards LA just because there isn't a record of a similar track in our brief history of record keeping we can discount that? I just don't understand the obsession with climatology sometimes. Bertha was perfectly normal this year right? There's been multiple years this decade that have completely shown no regard for climatology either. With that being said, it's a little comforting knowing models will change and to be targeted this far out makes me feel better. Texas to Florida Panhandle are all under the gun IMO.

[Agua]

it's a little comforting knowing models will change and to be targeted this far out makes me feel better.

You can nearly count on it.

My opinion only, based on nothing, don't take this post seriously, rely on NHC