TC Bertha

[WmE]

The first time I heard the name Bertha, it was in a Math question about probability!

"Answer the following questions with certain,likely,uncertain,and never"...
The Pacific ocean will be renamed Bertha!!!"

And your answer?

Anyway it's looking really good, i'd say the NHC will be conservative and only upgrade it to Category 2. (90-95kts)

[hurricanefloyd5]

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.9 / 951.7mb/112.4kt

How accurate are these estimates? Holy smokes.

Are you sure. Is this accurte??????I mean if this is right then this is already a rapid strenghtening Hurricane.

[SkyDragon]

The first time I heard the name Bertha, it was in a Math question about probability!

"Answer the following questions with certain,likely,uncertain,and never"...
The Pacific ocean will be renamed Bertha!!!"

And your answer?

Anyway it's looking really good, i'd say the NHC will be conservative and only upgrade it to Category 2. (90-95kts)

Certain!!!

[WmE]

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.9 / 951.7mb/112.4kt

How accurate are these estimates? Holy smokes.

Are you sure. Is this accurte??????I mean if this is right then this is already a rapid strenghtening Hurricane.

These CIMSS numbers are calculated by a computer. I don't know if they are accurate.

[Frank2]

Could be just a wobble, but, it appears to be on a 320 or 325 heading now:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

also, the eye is now cloud-filled at the surface...

[brunota2003]

Why aren't they now sending in recon, or is that Bermuda isn't seen as important enough to bother?!

Due to the lack of available places to fly to in the event of an emergency.

Or to just to land in general.

[senorpepr]

SAB and TAFB are both going with T5.0 (90KT). However, TAFB did mention a DT of T6 (I must stress, there final number was T5.0!!!)

[WmE]

The first time I heard the name Bertha, it was in a Math question about probability!

"Answer the following questions with certain,likely,uncertain,and never"...
The Pacific ocean will be renamed Bertha!!!"

And your answer?

Anyway it's looking really good, i'd say the NHC will be conservative and only upgrade it to Category 2. (90-95kts)

Certain!!!

That has a nice ring to it. 2008 Bertha hurricane/typhoon season.

[Stratosphere747]

Why aren't they now sending in recon, or is that Bermuda isn't seen as important enough to bother?!

It has nothing to do with how important Bermuda "isn't."

Key words = Logistics and safety of the crew.

[KWT]

Looks to be about 300 now Frank IMO, its more then the 290 that they had before though I agree, but not quite NW yet as its still gaining more longitude then latitude now.

[hurricanefloyd5]

If this Huricane Big Bertha gets strong enought then it creates it's own ENVIRMENT if I am not mistaken and if it slow to a crawl or stalls then this would be hugh trouble.

[HURAKAN]

Latest:





This smells like a major hurricane.

[KWT]

Also I was just wondering about the recon issue, I weren't accusing them of not caring for Bermuda I was just asking a question.

Hurakan, that eye has really cleared out, estimates are 90kts but I think if it holds that presentation those estimates will start to increase again.

[WmE]

If this Huricane Big Bertha gets strong enought then it creates it's own ENVIRMENT if I am not mistaken and if it slow to a crawl or stalls then this would be hugh trouble.

...for the storm. Stalling=cold water upwelling=weakening.

[OuterBanker]

I think Berta 08 will go down as the strongest July hurricane in history. Why not, it has already made history in about every other category in July already. And strong just about guarantees a recurve.

[SkyDragon]

I think Berta 08 will go down as the strongest July hurricane in history. Why not, it has already made history in about every other category in July already. And strong just about guarantees a recurve.

Emily was the earliest Cat 5 and it was in July!

[Category 5]

I think Berta 08 will go down as the strongest July hurricane in history. Why not, it has already made history in about every other category in July already. And strong just about guarantees a recurve.

You know you just predicted a Category 5 right?

[LAwxrgal]

Bertha is getting stronger and as she does so, she's gonna want to move more poleward, it's just the nature of the thing.

Plus she's feeling the weakness in the ridge and is going towards it. The paths should start going to the right.

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 07 JUL 2008 Time : 191500 UTC
Lat : 20:03:42 N Lon : 51:43:42 W

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.0 / 949.3mb/115.0kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
6.0 6.1 6.1

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +1.3mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 18 km

Center Temp : +6.9C Cloud Region Temp : -62.8C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

****************************************************