ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[cycloneye]

A mini,mini rant:

If this was located in the GOM a Special Tropical Disturbance Statement would haved been issued even if recon haved not gone to the system. Rant over.

[KWT]

i have been saying all a long that the center should form near that mid level .. but right now that LLC is in line with the earlier position estiamtes and is likely what they based that off of .. and right now we have nothing else to go off of until recon gets out there..

Well we have got the experts involved with the Dvorak and the latest fix shows it to be in the deep convection, plus the pro mets says that clearly there is nothing there. I bet that the next best track at 18z is rather further east then the last one.

[Aric Dunn]

new updated radar loop few new frames..

[Aric Dunn]

i have been saying all a long that the center should form near that mid level .. but right now that LLC is in line with the earlier position estiamtes and is likely what they based that off of .. and right now we have nothing else to go off of until recon gets out there..

Well we have got the experts involved with the Dvorak and the latest fix shows it to be in the deep convection, plus the pro mets says that clearly there is nothing there. I bet that the next best track at 18z is rather further east then the last one.

where is the dvorak... huh?

[deltadog03]

wow at sat pic. There has got to be atleast a developing llc under that CEO like ball of fire.

[jasons2k]

Sorry Derek, but to say that what I wrote was "Not true at all" was a little out of line and a little over the top...but whatever, you're the "pro"

No need to get snippy - and this goes for everyone.

Also, the key caveat with the corioilis effect lies in this part of the definition: "in the absence of strong steering currents"

Steering currents will always win out in track, just as shear will always win-out over boiling SSTs in devlopment.

[DESTRUCTION5]

A mini,mini rant:

If this was located in the GOM a Special Tropical Disturbance Statement would haved been issued even if recon haved not gone to the system. Rant over.

Luis I agree this one is Crazy!..This has to be a 45MPH TS already..Ok my rant over too

[storms in NC]

It looks like it is moving to the W-NW and it is growing folks and fast. Not good for any one. Even if it pases to the N of DR it will still get rain and wind. So not good for them there. Hold on to your hats all on the east coast from FL up.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-wv.html

[KWT]

A mini,mini rant:

If this was located in the GOM a Special Tropical Disturbance Statement would haved been issued even if recon haved not gone to the system. Rant over.

Yep I totally agree with you cycloneye, this relaly should have had a STDS about 6hrs ago IMO, NHC may get caught with thier pants down with this one given how impressive the convection is.

Aric, here it is:

14/1145 UTC 17.9N 60.0W T1.5/1.5 92L -- Atlantic Ocean

Probably a little further west now given that was a good few hours ago now.

[Aric Dunn]

just looked it up .. the last Dvorak was almost over St.martin..

here take a look .. and this from a few hours ago so it is over the island now

[Honeyko]

Remember this one, and how everybody burnt mucho joss sticks hoping it wouldn't take a track slightly farther north?

[KWT]

Aric I believe thats the best track position (the yellow dot) hence why it lines up with the best track from 12z...the actual fix is on my last post...

Also i agree this could easily be a TS right now, if its not a TC then its the best looking wave I've ever seen hold convection like this for this long.

[littlevince]

Zoomed radar loop

[Aric Dunn]

Aric I believe thats the best track position hence why it lines up with the best track from 12z...the actual fix is on my last post...

Also i agree this could easily be a TS right now, if its not a TC then its the best looking wave I've ever seen hold convection like this for this long.

60w is impossible that is east of the convection .............
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-rgb.html

[Aric Dunn]

Zoomed radar loop

nice you can take over then>>>

[KWT]

Yep but don't forget that fix was at 11.45 UTC, a good 4hrs ago. I agree it may be a little too far east of a fix but its a much better fix then the best track fix IMO, esp when you take into account the progress west its made recently.

Ah well recon will show either way I suppose.

[artist]

has anyone heard from msbee? She is on St. Martin.

[Aric Dunn]

one interesting thing to note ... the llc out west is starting to get over run by the convection ... its being pulled in which will help..

[ConvergenceZone]

has anyone heard from msbee? She is on St. Martin.

yep, a few pages back she posted a photo of the conditions on the island,.....

[Honeyko]

It is just crawling now. Last night I thought it would be plowing over PR by now, but at this rate, it has plenty of time to make Da Big H before it hits.