Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

[txwatcher91]

Look, whats coming down at hour 120 though...A front...I am skeptical any WSW movement would happen...Yes a W movement, but not WSW...But, hey....She hasn't done very well with models...

Deltadog, do you think the models may be overestimating the high and/or underestimating the trough or cf that should once again pick Fay up around the Jacksonville area? The reason I ask is because I would love for an inch or two of rain...

[DESTRUCTION5]

6z Gfdl crosses Chobee..

[cycloneye]

18z GFDL shifts east.

[txwatcher91]

Sorry if this has already been posted or is a dumb question, but on the GFS it shows a hp WAY east of Bermuda and one near the Great Lakes. IF this verified, wouldn't Fay go through the weakness between the two as I don't see how the HP to the N or E could influence it being so far away from it.

[deltadog03]

More than likely yes....Thats why I am a bit skeptical of all that WSW movement...

[txwatcher91]

More than likely yes....Thats why I am a bit skeptical of all that WSW movement...

That is also why I have a hard time believing the W or WSW movement. The Bermuda high is a long ways east of bermuda and the hp to the north of the Great Lake region is not the strong and would not be pushing fay west, and the weakness between the two would be around SC/NC or so if I am reading the map right.

[salescall]

More than likely yes....Thats why I am a bit skeptical of all that WSW movement...

That is also why I have a hard time believing the W or WSW movement. The Bermuda high is a long ways east of bermuda and the hp to the north of the Great Lake region is not the strong and would not be pushing fay west, and the weakness between the two would be around SC/NC or so if I am reading the map right.

Is there a possibility that the High in Canada moves south and replaces the Bermuda High. Wouldn't that steer Fay back south and west?

[artist]

there is more weather in Key West than the last couple of hours I have been watching this -


http://mycampage.com/keywestcam
posted in wrong thread - sorry

[DESTRUCTION5]

GFDL,GFS,HWRF and UKMET Take Fay over Lake Okeechobee in the next 24 hrs..Thats a pretty good consensus..

[Steve]

>>Is there a possibility that the High in Canada moves south and replaces the Bermuda High.

Well it was to join with it (it's the 2nd one we talked about last Tuesday) which was to be the block in my scenario that brought it into the SC region. But who knows?

Steve

[Weatherfreak14]

18z GFDL shifts east.

GFDL TAKES IT AT MY HOUSE AS A CAT 2!!!!!!!

[bayoubebe]

18z GFDL shifts east.

This is very confusing for an amateur such as myself.
Why so many differences in the models??
East? West? North?

[dmaui]

18z GFDL shifts east.

This is very confusing for an amateur such as myself.
Why so many differences in the models??
East? West? North?

Me, too. Jeff Masters does a better job than I would at explaining the different models, their strengths and weaknesses:
http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/models.asp

[Recurve]

18z GFDL shifts east.

This is very confusing for an amateur such as myself.
Why so many differences in the models??
East? West? North?

The models have radically different steering setups when it reaches north Florida. There is more than one solution now depending on what's left behind after the trough and where it is when that happens. HTH

[Dean4Storms]

As long as she crawls the more the possibility this scenario puts her back over in the Gulf.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Just logged on and can't believe these model runs. I guess nobody really knows where she will go after making landfall. The problem looks to be once again forecasting the strength/weakness of the highs and or troughs if they make it far enough south. Is Fay expected to accelerate towards the north tomorrow or slow down even more?

[ROCK]

Steering is weak right now:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm2.html

0z NAM takes her onshore but moves her back off of Tampa into the EGOM.....

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml


Looks like the high builds back in pretty strong also....

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_084l.gif
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[Dean4Storms]

THat run of the NAM has her crawling.

[canetracker]

GFS starts in about 1/2 hr.

[Wx_Warrior]

FWIW, i just don't agree with the GFS taking Fay'er back west in the GOM then heading back NE to Alabama...The thing is everyone have the trough picking her up just don't know when and where.