ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[Weatherfreak14]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-rb.html on the very last frame u can see the tallest of clouds surrounding what looks like the center, sorta looks like a developing "eyewall" like feauture.

[HURAKAN]

Weird! They may have found something interesting and decided to take a better look.

[Steve]

Btw, thanks to msbee for the great camera shot of the sky earlier.

>>I remember when Wilma hit us - afterwards it was very very cool. She had drawn a cold fronts winds above us down to us.

That also happened with Juan 1985 in Louisiana as well as it dragged down a cold front to usher in Autumn. Juan landfell on October 29th, Wilma hit on October 23rd or 24th. The summer, though it is still often hot then, was over by more than a month, not barely halfway through. I don't think you were arguing my point, but mid-August fronts don't really portend anything. It's usually what's behind them that tells the real story.

Steve

[artist]

has anyone heard from msbee? She is on St. Martin.

yep, a few pages back she posted a photo of the conditions on the island,.....

thank you

[canegrl04]

This has got to be TS Fay already.

[Aric Dunn]

Weird! They may have found something interesting and decided to take a better look.

yeah that midlevel circ.. checking to make sure its at the surface...

[Extremeweatherguy]

It is just crawling now. Last night I thought it would be plowing over PR by now, but at this rate, it has plenty of time to make Da Big H before it hits.

If this swirl is actually the center, then the radar indicates that 92L still has a decent forward motion. Definitely not crawling.

http://img134.imageshack.us/my.php?image=radaroc9.gif

If the models are right, then this system should be near the north or northwest side of Puerto Rico by tomorrow morning.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Chacor]

This has got to be TS Fay already.

Not without an LLCC.

[CajunMama]

The MLC is looking better and better by the minute! My thinking is that a LLC has formed or is forming under the MLC...

I can't wait to see what recon finds.

PLEASE!!! Do NOT post live loops of our radar. Many of us (in the islands) can't get it to load - I've had 2 captains tell me that already today!!

Post the link, or a snapshot on imageshack.

I'm bumping this up as a reminder. Also, before posting click preview and if you see a pic that is similar to yours being posted with no new relevent info please don't post it. Let's be considerate of others. Links are great

[tolakram]

If the center isn't under that convection now it's darn close.

[canegrl04]

what we should be watching for is a surprise storm like Debby 1994

Derek; you do make me work!
I looked at 1994 Debby and don't see what the reference is.
She developed over the southtern Leewards and then died in the East Carib.
What are you comparing 92L to?

I think he means the fact that she went straight to TS status and skipped TD

[jlauderdal]

what we should be watching for is a surprise storm like Debby 1994

Derek; you do make me work!
I looked at 1994 Debby and don't see what the reference is.
She developed over the southtern Leewards and then died in the East Carib.
What are you comparing 92L to?

debby was forecasted to come right into sofla and instead went right into hispanola and died a very quick death

[Extremeweatherguy]

what we should be watching for is a surprise storm like Debby 1994

Derek; you do make me work!
I looked at 1994 Debby and don't see what the reference is.
She developed over the southtern Leewards and then died in the East Carib.
What are you comparing 92L to?

debby was forecasted to come right into sofla and instead went right into hispanola and died a very quick death

That was Debby of 2000, not Debby of 1994.

[HURAKAN]

Unfortunately the plane is having instrumental problems and any data should be looked with suspicion. The next RECON, leaving at 1 PM EDT, should give us a better idea.

[gatorcane]

the NHC should upgrade this thing to at least TD before the next mission IMHO

It's about time we see a cone.

[93superstorm]

Amazing how good this thing is looking:

[KWT]

It is just crawling now. Last night I thought it would be plowing over PR by now, but at this rate, it has plenty of time to make Da Big H before it hits.

Looks like its still moving at a fairly decent speed, nothing too fast but probably close to PR in about 24hrs time. If it is developing quickly like it seems to be right now then it could become a decent system by then though.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/avn-l.jpg

Looks like a 60 mph Tropical Storm to my amateur eyes.

[Aric Dunn]

seriously if the center does not form under that midlevel ... im going drink myself stupid later and stare in awe for a while casue satellite presentaion is brilliant!! as long as you dont look for feeder band and banding.. lol it really does look like its on the verge of a hurricane ( but its not well it least not in the real sense) its just wierd ... but interesting

[gatorcane]

so why is NHC waiting so long to pull the trigger? I don't get it. If anything it would make people take it more seriously in its path ATTM.