ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[jeff]

I hold from Matagorda Bay to Vermillion Bay...narrowing toward the TX/LA state line. That is the best right now at days out. Landfall late Saturday afternoon or early evening. I echo again that well developed Gulf storms moving greater than 8mph tend to track right of NHC and guidance. So if NHC puts this into Matagorda Bay at 400pm Monday...look out upper TX/SW LA coast.

jeff, I get your updates and if you remember, I sent you an email about my folks in SELA using your updates as guides for their own preparations. Right now, they have a hotel booked up here in Rockwall, but they don't want to pull the trigger on that if they don't have to. I won't ask you to tell me if they should or should not leave based on what you stated in the quoted text. But what do you think the affects would be in NOLA with that landfall position?

Likely similar to Rita...We should know much better Tuesday. Will not give the all clear for SE LA as that would be not the correct action...but I feel the threat is more west of that area.

Call me anytime...you have my number

[Wx_Warrior]

Jeff,

You seem very sure on location several days out and some model uncertainty. What Golden Triangle folks don't understand that traffic wasn't too bad last week leaving for Gustav because this part of Texas was the only area under evac. If Galv and/or Hou has to leave, this could be a nightmare scenario trying to get out.

Here's hoping you are wrong and, I will thank you for being wrong if you are.

[Dean4Storms]

Man that is a general consensus this far out, what a mess.

[gboudx]

Call me anytime...you have my number

Very kind of you sir. Thanks again.

[jeff]

Jeff,

You seem very sure on location several days out and some model uncertainty. What Golden Triangle folks don't understand that traffic wasn't too bad last week leaving for Gustav because this part of Texas was the only area under evac. If Galv and/or Hou has to leave, this could be a nightmare scenario trying to get out.

Here's hoping you are wrong and, I will thank you for being wrong if you are.

I am not sure how many people left for Gustav from Jefferson County...it seems that not many left...a lot of wait and see type of action...This will not be the same deal.

Plan is for HOU/GAL not to use US 59 N so SE TX can flow N into US 59 and then it will be contra flowed. That is the plan...if the public does not listen then it will be Rita all over again.

[HouTXmetro]

Going to be a close call for Houston area either way. Looks like we might be on the clean side of the storm if the storm tends to track right of the guidance and NHC.

[jeff]

Going to be a close call for Houston area either way. Looks like we might be on the clean side of the storm if the storm tends to track right of the guidance and NHC.

A hit in SW LA would be like Rita in SE TX with strong TS winds across HOU and Hurricane force across BPT.

A BPT hit would likely put hurricane force winds into at least E Harris.

[Diva]

I hate to say it but better this hits near the TX/LA border than just about anywhere within 100 miles east or west of that border.

If you hate to say it then you shouldn't! That's right over my house!!

I'm sorry, I was just trying to place it at a landfall with the least amount of population. But I understand where you are coming from, been there and done it twice with Ivan and Dennis.

Oh, I understand. I think one thing that people don't realize is that this is the I-10 corridor and, when LA is evacuating west and then we get called for an evacuation as well, it quickly goes from an area of "least amount of population" to an extremely LARGE population. I-10 becomes a literal parking lot of people going nowhere fast.

Question....anyone have an educated guess as to what way Ike will travel once he's made landfall? I realize it's way off but it will have a huge bearing on where I will make evac plans to if/when the need arises.

[jwayne]

Going to be a close call for Houston area either way. Looks like we might be on the clean side of the storm if the storm tends to track right of the guidance and NHC.

A hit in SW LA would be like Rita in SE TX with strong TS winds across HOU and Hurricane force across BPT.

A BPT hit would likely put hurricane force winds into at least E Harris.

Jeff, one more question: I know it's almost impossible to predict intensity this far out, but are we looking at a realistic possibility of this thing being above a cat 3 or more likely a cat 3 or lower?

thanks

[HouTXmetro]

Going to be a close call for Houston area either way. Looks like we might be on the clean side of the storm if the storm tends to track right of the guidance and NHC.

A hit in SW LA would be like Rita in SE TX with strong TS winds across HOU and Hurricane force across BPT.

A BPT hit would likely put hurricane force winds into at least E Harris.

What are your thoughts about the EURO and south Texas? Is it unrealistic?

[smw1981]

The problem with making statements that predict the exact location a hurricane will hit 5,6, or 7 days out is that everyone in the area will begin to panic when the hurricane is a week away!

If Texas starts a mandatory evac on Wednesday, then on Thursday the storm looks like it's headed more towards LA, imagine the roads/traffic situation. It COULD create a horrible road/getaway situation for the people actually in the direct path of the storm (with millions more people panicing).

And to the person that posted the "If you're not from Texas, you don't understand...", I imagine that everyone who lives on the coast feels that exact same way. I live in north Alabama, and yet I could say the same thing about AGC, MGC, NO, etc...mainly because when they evacuate, they come up here creating horrific traffic 4-5 hours north of the coast. Therefore, I think everyone understands

[jeff]

Going to be a close call for Houston area either way. Looks like we might be on the clean side of the storm if the storm tends to track right of the guidance and NHC.

A hit in SW LA would be like Rita in SE TX with strong TS winds across HOU and Hurricane force across BPT.

A BPT hit would likely put hurricane force winds into at least E Harris.

What are your thoughts about the EURO and south Texas? Is it unrealistic?

It is likely a little too far south...but I think it has the right thinking with the ridge...It has been the benchmark trend setter with this storm...along with the UKMET. I think they will remain aimed at the lower to middle coast with the GFS toward the upper TX/SW LA and the GFDL and HWRF in SW LA or C LA. I could see a little more trending west and then in 2-3 days a slight trend eastward...more experience with Gulf storms this time of year. Still keeps me in my area from Matagorda to Vermillion.

[Wx_Warrior]

And if Galveston or just west...?

[jeff]

The problem with making statements that predict the exact location a hurricane will hit 5,6, or 7 days out is that everyone in the area will begin to panic when the hurricane is a week away!

If Texas starts a mandatory evac on Wednesday, then on Thursday the storm looks like it's headed more towards LA, imagine the roads/traffic situation. It COULD create a horrible road/getaway situation for the people actually in the direct path of the storm (with millions more people panicing).

And to the person that posted the "If you're not from Texas, you don't understand...", I imagine that everyone who lives on the coast feels that exact same way. I live in north Alabama, and yet I could say the same thing about AGC, MGC, NO, etc...mainly because when they evacuate, they come up here creating horrific traffic 4-5 hours north of the coast. Therefore, I think everyone understands

Problem is when you have large coastal populations like in Hou/Gal you have to make the call early so you can get everyone out in time. Now with contra-flow the trigger is even sooner so the state can get the exchange points ready and sweep the "inbound lanes" Takes 40 hours to clear GLS county...Trigger is usually H-48 to H-42, but the not public call is made much sooner H-72...so all the resources can be placed in the proper locations

[Stratosphere747]

Not to much different that what 57 shared. Track at 11 will most likely imply the threat to the mid and upper Texas coast.

[wxman57]

Jeff, one more question: I know it's almost impossible to predict intensity this far out, but are we looking at a realistic possibility of this thing being above a cat 3 or more likely a cat 3 or lower?

thanks

I would think it has a better chance of being weaker than a 3. We'll have to see what's left of Ike after spending 36 hours over Cuba. It can take a hurricane quite a few days to recover from such an extended time over land.

[jeff]

Going to be a close call for Houston area either way. Looks like we might be on the clean side of the storm if the storm tends to track right of the guidance and NHC.

A hit in SW LA would be like Rita in SE TX with strong TS winds across HOU and Hurricane force across BPT.

A BPT hit would likely put hurricane force winds into at least E Harris.

Jeff, one more question: I know it's almost impossible to predict intensity this far out, but are we looking at a realistic possibility of this thing being above a cat 3 or more likely a cat 3 or lower?

thanks

I think a cat 3 looks generally good...low end likely. Could be a cat 4 or a cat 2. Will have to see what Cuba does...but there is plenty of time for Ike to rebuild its inner core over the Gulf and besides some dry air entrainment which happens in the Gulf this time of year...everything else look good to go...moreso than Gustav. However, some storms are not able to rebuild their inner cores as easily as others.. ie Isidore 2002.

[sphelps8681]

The problem with making statements that predict the exact location a hurricane will hit 5,6, or 7 days out is that everyone in the area will begin to panic when the hurricane is a week away!

If Texas starts a mandatory evac on Wednesday, then on Thursday the storm looks like it's headed more towards LA, imagine the roads/traffic situation. It COULD create a horrible road/getaway situation for the people actually in the direct path of the storm (with millions more people panicing).

And to the person that posted the "If you're not from Texas, you don't understand...", I imagine that everyone who lives on the coast feels that exact same way. I live in north Alabama, and yet I could say the same thing about AGC, MGC, NO, etc...mainly because when they evacuate, they come up here creating horrific traffic 4-5 hours north of the coast. Therefore, I think everyone understands

I evacuated for Gustav and the thing did not even come here. We evacuated to the Toledo Bend area not knowing it would eventually head there. Ended up evacuating again from there back home. I would do it again. But evacuations take time. We will need a start on Wednesday, for the forcast for Friday will be TS force winds from what I understand. If it comes here. I heard Beaumont takes around 32 hours to evacuate. I don't want to hurry up and get out evac.

[jeff]

The problem with making statements that predict the exact location a hurricane will hit 5,6, or 7 days out is that everyone in the area will begin to panic when the hurricane is a week away!

If Texas starts a mandatory evac on Wednesday, then on Thursday the storm looks like it's headed more towards LA, imagine the roads/traffic situation. It COULD create a horrible road/getaway situation for the people actually in the direct path of the storm (with millions more people panicing).

And to the person that posted the "If you're not from Texas, you don't understand...", I imagine that everyone who lives on the coast feels that exact same way. I live in north Alabama, and yet I could say the same thing about AGC, MGC, NO, etc...mainly because when they evacuate, they come up here creating horrific traffic 4-5 hours north of the coast. Therefore, I think everyone understands

I evacuated for Gustav and the thing did not even come here. We evacuated to the Toledo Bend area not knowing it would eventually head there. Ended up evacuating again from there back home. I would do it again. But evacuations take time. We will need a start on Wednesday, for the forcast for Friday will be TS force winds from what I understand. If it comes here. I heard Beaumont takes around 32 hours to evacuate. I don't want to hurry up and get out evac.

This is what I say at my hurricane presentations "If you live on the coast...you must be willing to evacuate and have nothing happen."

[Texashawk]

The problem with making statements that predict the exact location a hurricane will hit 5,6, or 7 days out is that everyone in the area will begin to panic when the hurricane is a week away!

If Texas starts a mandatory evac on Wednesday, then on Thursday the storm looks like it's headed more towards LA, imagine the roads/traffic situation. It COULD create a horrible road/getaway situation for the people actually in the direct path of the storm (with millions more people panicing).

And to the person that posted the "If you're not from Texas, you don't understand...", I imagine that everyone who lives on the coast feels that exact same way. I live in north Alabama, and yet I could say the same thing about AGC, MGC, NO, etc...mainly because when they evacuate, they come up here creating horrific traffic 4-5 hours north of the coast. Therefore, I think everyone understands

If you're referring to my post, I didn't mean it in the sense that we just understand better than others. I meant it in the sense that we have an enormous population to move, more than most population centers along the coast, and the logistics for such a move must be set in motion well in advance and it changes the scope of a very large area. Again, no offense intended, just I don't know that people truly understand just how many people live on the UTX coast.