ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[Chacor]

the NHC should upgrade this thing to at least TD before the next mission IMHO

It's about time we see a cone.

With no data to confirm a closed LLC, they're not going to upgrade.

[KWT]

Will be very interesting to see what recon does, it seems like they are flying towards the old LLC first where the NHC have the center then explore east from there.

Cloud tops are warming somewhat like they did around this time yesterday but the shape still looks pretty impressive IMO and clearly ther is little shear.

[Sanibel]

The dent in the west side is just the next step up in Dvorak.

[tolakram]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 031815.GIF

Look how the inflow clouds that were streaming toward the old center are now being pulled under the convection ... at least to my eyes. I'd say at least a TD and I can't remember the last time I saw a TD look this vigorous.

[Honeyko]

PLEASE!!! Do NOT post live loops of our (Antilles) radar. Many of us (in the islands) can't get it to load - I've had 2 captains tell me that already today!!

I'm bumping this up as a reminder.

The Meteo France radar is loading very fast for me (I'm in the central US); I suspect the bottleneck isn't at the source, but with the ISP the Islanders and ship captains are using.(Unless the whole place has only one ISP, in which case, I dunno....)

It is just crawling now. Last night I thought it would be plowing over PR by now, but at this rate, it has plenty of time to make Da Big H before it hits.

Looks like its still moving at a fairly decent speed, nothing too fast but probably close to PR in about 24hrs time. If it is developing quickly like it seems to be right now then it could become a decent system by then though.

Which means it could even be cat-2 by then. Remember how Floyd ramped up?

The betting window is now open for which recon flight today or tomorrow first encounters hail.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

Okay, nevermind, looks like a 70 mph TS to me.

[Blown Away]

so why is NHC waiting so long to pull the trigger? I don't get it. If anything it would make people take it more seriously in its path ATTM.

Because the 5 day cone will have SFL and I think they want to be sure before upgrading and creating a panic to the W.

[NEXRAD]

seriously if the center does not form under that midlevel ... im going drink myself stupid later and stare in awe for a while casue satellite presentaion is brilliant!! as long as you dont look for feeder band and banding.. lol it really does look like its on the verge of a hurricane ( but its not well it least not in the real sense) its just wierd ... but interesting

Some of the less commonly used satellite imagery (e.g. color composite) shows what appear to be weak bands, esp. SW and E of the main convective cluster.

- Jay

[Blown Away]

Ding, Ding, Ding, we have a winner for the best looking Invest ever:
92L

[Brent]

This is the best looking invest I've ever seen. There's got to be an LLC in there somewhere.

[tolakram]

Another loop:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_1

and image.



I can clearly see low level clouds streaming into that blob.

[KWT]

Yeah agreed Chacor though I think theres nothing wrong with saying if you do think it looks a certain strength, then thats upto them I suppose!

blown_away, yep I totally agree this is one of the best looking invests I've ever seen as well to be honest.

[Gustywind]

Orange alert for ST Marteen and St Barth at 11 am given the latest weather forecast of Meteo-France !!! They added strong gustywinds near 80 km/h or higher during the thunderstorms beginning this afternoon! Good luck for Msbee hope no TD or a TS crossing here island, but looks like it may not be a simple strong wave....we should monitor very closely this feature getting better and better hours after hours...

[Extremeweatherguy]

This has to be one of the best looking non-classified systems that I have ever seen. In fact, this looks as good as some strong Tropical Storms I have seen in the past. Once the MLC is able to work down to the surface, I think we could easily see a Humberto-like jump in strength with this one. JMO.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[CourierPR]

This system has gone from the outhouse to the penthouse in terms of development. Oh my!

[deltadog03]

llc has to be close to that ball. Mlc don't usually sustain covection like that for this long. If the llc is there this should be fay

[Steve]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc0 ... atest.html

New Chart is out on 11WNONAME to hit the SE tip of Korea and hook off west of Japan. 7 days would be Thursday the 21st, so if we're dealing with Fay by then, it may be a coast-brusher. Confidence in this solution is extremely low but there is obviously ridging across Japan meaning that the avenue of escape to the temperate regions would be fairly close to the SE US Coast if everything matched up to the T (which isn't likely but it's something to follow).

Steve

[hurricanefloyd5]

Wouldn't it be cool if this invest gose straight to Hurricane cause it looks so well orginized!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[gatorcane]

I can't believe there is not even an STDS on this yet. I am puzzled. Is the NHC wanting recon data that bad before upgrading?

[Vortex]

this may be one of those rare situations where you have a very strong MLC and with very favorable conditions aloft gives the appearance of being at the surface. Often in these cases its just a matter of time before it works to the surface and would like go right to TS status.