ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[KWT]

For some parts of Haiti any wobble will make a huge difference, because the core is so small a wobble of 15 miles may mean the difference between an eyewall hit and only getting maybe high end TS winds. However either way they are going to get huge rains with Gustav slowing right down before the turn to the West.

[jlauderdal]

I can see everyone scrutinziing every single move when Gustav gets further up into the Gulf, but at this point every little wobble doesn't necessarily mean anything. We still have a few days before we need to worry ourselves with even the slightest movement.

Keep your sanity in tact for now. You may REALLY need it in a few days.

there should really be a rule, no posting of movement until you watch at least 4 hours of a loop, this frame by frame stuff is really ridiculous and quite frankly a couple of frames doesn't prove jack just like a 6 or 18z model run doesnt prove jack, you have to see a few before you start thinking on a change

[Sanibel]

I don't see how the storm moves much at all in this scenario - it ought to stall over Haiti.

Although Gus is enveloped by the High the High still has a clockwise flow around it that will send the system west-ish as the path of least resistance. The strong easterly tropical flow coming into the Caribbean from the Atlantic also has a pushing effect.

[Sabanic]

For some parts of Haiti any wobble will make a huge difference, because the core is so small a wobble of 15 miles may mean the difference between an eyewall hit and only getting maybe high end TS winds. However either way they are going to get huge rains with Gustav slowing right down before the turn to the West.

I didn't meant that as a slam on any of the islands, but many of the posts concerning the slightest movments are then followed by a question of whether or not that will make a difference on an area on the GC.

[Steve]

>>I am not -removed- a Florida hit, just asking a question of how certain a Gulf hit is?

Look at the NHC Cone of Uncertainty for that answer. As of now, only parts of FL in the cone are some of the Keys and the Dry Tortugas.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?5day

If the pros see a need to change it to include Jupiter or wherever, they will. Nothing is set in stone.

[alienstorm]

Gustave just coming ashore along the sw pennisular of Haiti...

[KWT]

If you have a look at the ULL you will see that Gustav is pretty much on the eastern side of the high, this will almost certainly force gustav towards the west very soon, motion will probably slow but to the extent where the motion will be in question.

Also recon will be in Gustav soon enough, will be very interesting to see what it shows wit hthe eye just emerging again, though may not get to sample the northern quadrant due to how close the system is to Haiti.

[jlauderdal]

For some parts of Haiti any wobble will make a huge difference, because the core is so small a wobble of 15 miles may mean the difference between an eyewall hit and only getting maybe high end TS winds. However either way they are going to get huge rains with Gustav slowing right down before the turn to the West.

I didn't meant that as a slam on any of the islands, but many of the posts concerning the slightest movments are then followed by a question of whether or not that will make a difference on an area on the GC.

every movement of the system now makes a difference down the world, guess what, thats one reason there is a cone of concern or uncertainty or destruction or whatever you want to call it..think geometry everyone, when you extrapolate all this over time you get massive changes in the final solution, its really complicated stuff in case nobodys noticed

roll tide

[KWT]

Also the northern eyewall is probably moving onshore now in SW Haiti, probably the hurricane force winds just moving inland now, eye probably still has another hour or so over water but we shall see what recon says.

Also high resoltuion imagery suggest this hasn't slowed in the last few hours.

[Wx_Warrior]

Looking at some maps, I notice Upper Air would bring Gustav to south texas and I did see some shear @ 200.

[Sanibel]

Now it looks like we have a slow grinder sending a prolonged eyewall across Haiti with heavy rain. Not spared now.

[rockyman]

Looking at some maps, I notice Upper Air would bring Gustav to south texas and I did see some shear @ 200.

which maps?

[KWT]

Depends what models you trust Wxwarrior, ECM would suggest that but I've noticed it has overdone ridges in the past...equally the GFS has underdone them as well...

I actually think Lili may be a very good system to compare to this one based on the expected track, though conditions and its current strength may mean it reaching the higher categories faster than Lili did.

[hial2]

Gustave just coming ashore along the sw pennisular of Haiti...

It's official then..not a fish storm

[deltadog03]

ya 1km vis showing landfall now.

[tolakram]

http://maps.google.com/maps/ms?hl=en&ie ... bd94124246

[PTrackerLA]

Looks to be right on NHC track for landfall in Haiti.

[KWT]

Yep tip of the eye is coming ashore right now it seems, will be interesting to see what the conditions are like in that part of Haiti, the only small blessing is the core is pretty small but the slow motion is allowing some real heavy rains to cause floodinmg issues I'd guess...also wind damage is very likely simply because this is probably very close to being a category-2 hurricane at landfall.

[cpdaman]

generally motion seems to have turned from about 320 last nite-early this morning to about 305-maybe a touch higher or lower depending on how gradaul the turn is. this motion may take it over pretty high mountains for a good deal of the afternoon and possibly evening, so being a compact storm we may have a larger amount of weakening (should this be over land for 12-14 hours)

as of 1615 utc i have this at 18.1 / 72.6 should be over mountains by about 130 or 200 thru and if this decides to hang a left right now , it may be over the mountains for longer, a continuation NW would see it emerge even sooner, but then he would have to hang a left shortly after emerging SE of cuba to avoid much land interaction there. hope gustav is a good driver

[cycloneye]

There are not very tall mountains compared to the 10,000 peak in central Hispanola.