ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[HouTXmetro]

If that convection center doesn't rebound these guys could be right and the shear is already getting it. Hate to admit it.

Seems to be holding its own at the moment. Different from yesterday afternoon, that's for sure.

Isn't this the time of day convection begins to weaken?

[Steve H.]

Well, i thought LA could also mean Lower Alabama

[hurricanefloyd5]

Yep that ship report at least justifies 30kts and thats without what recon may show.

Gaotrcane, I personally can't see Florida having anthing to worry about it would have to move NW right now and go right through that ULL which is not going to happen IMO. Main threat is probably from LA westwards. Still I'm no pro so can't be sure.

How can you disregaurd florida when we don't even know where this system could go??????? I say florida has something to watch untill we know for sure that florida is under no threat of this system!!!!!!!!

[tolakram]

If that convection center doesn't rebound these guys could be right and the shear is already getting it. Hate to admit it.

Seems to be holding its own at the moment. Different from yesterday afternoon, that's for sure.

Isn't this the time of day convection begins to weaken?

Yea, DMin, though I'm not too sure how much I buy into it for a developing system.

I'm looking for outflow boundaries and I may be seeing them north and west of the blob, which could indicate convection is falling apart. It looks better though and I'm honestly not sure exactly what I'm looking at.





SMURF!

[Javlin]

If that convection center doesn't rebound these guys could be right and the shear is already getting it. Hate to admit it.

Looks like it just spit a little vortice due N@15'N and 71'W and another one looks to be emerging @14.7' and 70'.Not good for development.

[wxman57]

Convection is decreasing now. Don't see any evidence of a well-defined LLC. No TD today from this one. Look to the north off the GA coast for TD 3 today. I see the 12Z GFS track is a bit left of earlier runs. The longer it takes to develop, the more west it'll track. Main threat area Tampico to mid TX coast. I don't see any threat to the NE Gulf or Florida.

Oh, and note that the convection is elongating to the north now as the northern part of the wave interacts with the upper trof just to the west.

[gatorcane]

Convection is decreasing now. Don't see any evidence of a well-defined LLC. No TD today from this one. Look to the north off the GA coast for TD 3 today. I see the 12Z GFS track is a bit left of earlier runs. The longer it takes to develop, the more west it'll track. Main threat area Tampico to mid TX coast. I don't see any threat to the NE Gulf or Florida.

Oh, and note that the convection is elongating to the north now as the northern part of the wave interacts with the upper trof just to the west.

Hmmm... I can buy that somewhat. I'm not sold on a Mexico hit yet by any means. I'm hoping this thing just doesn't develop. It's already been a big headache just in speculation alone.

[drezee]

Convection is decreasing now. Don't see any evidence of a well-defined LLC. No TD today from this one. Look to the north off the GA coast for TD 3 today. I see the 12Z GFS track is a bit left of earlier runs. The longer it takes to develop, the more west it'll track. Main threat area Tampico to mid TX coast. I don't see any threat to the NE Gulf or Florida.

Oh, and note that the convection is elongating to the north now as the northern part of the wave interacts with the upper trof just to the west.

ANy area of low pressure is S of Haiti and is almost exposed...

[HouTXmetro]

Just full of Trickery

[cycloneye]

The rollercoaster of 94L continues.

[bvigal]

Convection is decreasing now. Don't see any evidence of a well-defined LLC. No TD today from this one. Look to the north off the GA coast for TD 3 today. I see the 12Z GFS track is a bit left of earlier runs. The longer it takes to develop, the more west it'll track. Main threat area Tampico to mid TX coast. I don't see any threat to the NE Gulf or Florida.

Oh, and note that the convection is elongating to the north now as the northern part of the wave interacts with the upper trof just to the west.

VERY good point, thanks!!

SSD-dvorak sure hasn't liked 94L... here are last 3 days estimates:

Code: Select all

  DATE/TIME     LAT     LON    CLASSIFICATION        STORM
  18/1145 UTC    35.6N   53.0W    T3.5/3.5           BERTHA
  18/1145 UTC    31.0N   80.9W    T1.0/1.0              96L
  18/1145 UTC    13.5N   70.8W    T1.0/1.0              94L
  18/0545 UTC    34.2N   54.6W    T3.0/3.0           BERTHA
  18/0545 UTC    30.8N   80.9W    T1.0/1.0              96L
  17/2345 UTC    30.6N   80.6W    TOO WEAK           INVEST
  17/2345 UTC    13.0N   83.0W    TOO WEAK              95L
  17/2345 UTC    33.6N   56.2W    T3.0/3.0           BERTHA
  17/1745 UTC    30.5N   80.3W    TOO WEAK           INVEST
  17/1745 UTC    13.3N   81.9W    TOO WEAK              95L
  17/1745 UTC    12.9N   66.1W    TOO WEAK              94L
  17/1745 UTC    33.9N   57.8W    T3.0/3.0           BERTHA
  17/1145 UTC    34.7N   58.8W    T3.0/3.0           BERTHA
  17/0545 UTC    34.7N   59.7W    T3.0/3.0           BERTHA
  17/0545 UTC    28.4N   81.2W    OVERLAND              INV
  17/0545 UTC    12.0N   61.0W    T1.0/2.0              94L
  16/2345 UTC    35.6N   60.1W    T3.0/3.0           BERTHA
  16/1745 UTC    12.3N   57.9W    T2.0/2.5              94L
  16/1745 UTC    36.3N   60.7W    T3.0/3.5           BERTHA
  16/1745 UTC    27.8N   81.3W    OVERLAND           INVEST
  16/1145 UTC    13.0N   56.1W    T2.5/2.5              94L


[fci]

The rollercoaster of 94L continues.

94L has been quite the entertainer hasn't it????

[tailgater]

Refiring near center already, lets see what the Recon finds.

[Aric Dunn]

interesting buoy report...
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42058

[drezee]

Refiring near center already, lets see what the Recon finds.

ANy area of low pressure it has is near buoy 42058 and is racing ahead of the convection...

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42058

[HouTXmetro]

interesting buoy report...
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42058

What's interesting about it?

[Blown Away]

The rollercoaster of 94L continues.

What an emotional ride it has been with 94L, I'm thinking there will be at least one more surprise before it's over.

[senorpepr]

interesting buoy report...
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42058

What makes this buoy interesting? It's over 200 mi NW of the center/trough axis.

[Aric Dunn]

Refiring near center already, lets see what the Recon finds.

ANy area of low pressure it has is near buoy 42058 and is racing ahead of the convection...

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42058

no ... that buoy is at 15n 75w .. and that is way far in front of the system ,, 94l will be over that buoy later tonight..

[Aric Dunn]

interesting buoy report...
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42058

What makes this buoy interesting? It's over 200 mi NW of the center/trough axis.

thats whats interesting.. you nailed it.... seems more like a wave axis