ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[Scorpion]

With the eye clearing out it wouldn't surprise me if this was around 90 kts now.

[tolakram]

Google map and location where I think it made landfall.

http://maps.google.com/maps/ms?hl=en&ie ... bd94124246

That inlet near jacmel ... that looks bad, might get the worst of the surge. I hope they had warning and time to evacuate.

[cpdaman]

With the eye clearing out it wouldn't surprise me if this was around 90 kts now.

i would say yes, quite possible given the compact nature

how long to recon is in the center?

[KWT]

Yeah I think its just about to go through a strengthening phase again just as its making landfall, thats never a good sign, remember Fay did the same upon Sw Florida landfall. The conditions aren't as good for Gustav so it should weaken but probably not a huge deal given it will only be over the small strip of land for around 6-9hrs.

[Sanibel]

I think I'm noticing an increase in forward speed as if it just got picked up by a ridge. Maybe.

[canegrl04]

Correct me if I'm wrong,but if the current projected track verifies,wouldn't this be th first hurricane to do this since Camille?

[tgenius]

So the models and everything are in agreement to take it under CUBA and then into the GOM?

[Weatherfreak000]

Looking at some maps, I notice Upper Air would bring Gustav to south texas and I did see some shear @ 200.

Mind showing us these maps?

[mattpetre]

Google map and location where I think it made landfall.

http://maps.google.com/maps/ms?hl=en&ie ... bd94124246

That inlet near jacmel ... that looks bad, might get the worst of the surge. I hope they had warning and time to evacuate.

I was checking the map too and it looks like Jacmel could really take a beating and an enhanced surge due to the direction of that bay. Thoughts are with the people of that area. I really didn't think it would make this Haitian landfall (but as usual I was very wrong.)

[KWT]

Maybe Sanibel though would need a longer timeframe clearly to know either way.

One thing is true, its not stalling like some were saying for some reason a few hours ago, foward speed seems to be the same as before.

[hurricanefloyd5]

I think I'm noticing an increase in forward speed as if it just got picked up by a ridge. Maybe.

If that's true then the track shifts which wat westward??????

[ColdFusion]

I think I'm noticing an increase in forward speed as if it just got picked up by a ridge. Maybe.

If that's true then the track shifts which wat westward??????

Would not indicate a track shift.

[jlauderdal]

I think I'm noticing an increase in forward speed as if it just got picked up by a ridge. Maybe.

frame count please?

[tolakram]

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... ive_0.html

No westward shift that I can see.

[cycloneye]

[x-y-no]

Maybe Sanibel though would need a longer timeframe clearly to know either way.

One thing is true, its not stalling like some were saying for some reason a few hours ago, foward speed seems to be the same as before.

Just to clarify - I wasn't arguing that it would stall - certainly not before reaching Haiti. My question is regarding the speed of the forecast westward movement. It looks to me like the 500mb ridge will wrap around to the west of it and that could slow that movement over the next day or two.

[ColdFusion]

Maybe Sanibel though would need a longer timeframe clearly to know either way.

One thing is true, its not stalling like some were saying for some reason a few hours ago, foward speed seems to be the same as before.

Just to clarify - I wasn't arguing that it would stall - certainly not before reaching Haiti. My question is regarding the speed of the forecast westward movement. It looks to me like the 500mb ridge will wrap around to the west of it and that could slow that movement over the next day or two.

That is the official forecast isnt it?

[x-y-no]

Maybe Sanibel though would need a longer timeframe clearly to know either way.

One thing is true, its not stalling like some were saying for some reason a few hours ago, foward speed seems to be the same as before.

Just to clarify - I wasn't arguing that it would stall - certainly not before reaching Haiti. My question is regarding the speed of the forecast westward movement. It looks to me like the 500mb ridge will wrap around to the west of it and that could slow that movement over the next day or two.

That is the official forecast isnt it?

The official forecast has some slowing, not a lot. I think it may be slower than forecast.

[Dean4Storms]

Landfall, should start making the turn later today/tonight.

[KWT]

Yep motion will probably slow as it reaches the eastern side of the high, maybe speed up a little bit as it gets deeper alonbg the highs circulation but either way the foward speed shouldn't be too quick.

Looks like now we've got landfall on Haiti, eye becoming much better defined just like Fay.