ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[Carrie]

I think a cat 3 looks generally good...low end likely. Could be a cat 4 or a cat 2. Will have to see what Cuba does...but there is plenty of time for Ike to rebuild its inner core over the Gulf and besides some dry air entrainment which happens in the Gulf this time of year...everything else look good to go...moreso than Gustav. However, some storms are not able to rebuild their inner cores as easily as others.. ie Isidore 2002.

I lived in Cancun for Isidore. I felt *some* of the storm as it went by as a Cat 3. Merida sure got rocked! Merida is the major distribution for the Northern Yucatan; as such it made grocery shopping in Cancun more difficult for a couple weeks thereafter! Then the headlines read 'Lili's coming'... but it didn't. It turned north at the last minute. Thank God! But then there was Wilma... (but I was already back here at that point)

Prayers for anyone impacted by Ike!

[hurrican19]

I hate to say it but better this hits near the TX/LA border than just about anywhere within 100 miles east or west of that border.

If you hate to say it then you shouldn't! That's right over my house!!

I'm sorry, I was just trying to place it at a landfall with the least amount of population. But I understand where you are coming from, been there and done it twice with Ivan and Dennis.

umm no, you DON'T want it making landfall in SETX or SWLA -- There are close to a half million people in that area.. How about Kings Ranch area of Texas, THAT is your least amount of population......... I'm so sick of people saying that the area is "Sparsely Populated" I now that isn't YOUR words, but geez! There's a LOT more people living in this area than most know!

[southerngale]

I hate to say it but better this hits near the TX/LA border than just about anywhere within 100 miles east or west of that border.

BPT and LCH may disagree...but I do understand your point. Vermillion Bay area or S TX between BRO and CRp would be the best options. Offshore rigs may take a Rita type hit.

I think we've been beaten up enough. Rita devastated us nearly 3 years ago. Humberto caused a good bit of trouble last year. Then TS Edouard (albeit kinda wimpy) earlier this year. A (what turned out to be unnecessary) mandatory evacuation with Gustav about a week ago... yes, I definitely disagree.

[hurrican19]

Going to be a close call for Houston area either way. Looks like we might be on the clean side of the storm if the storm tends to track right of the guidance and NHC.

A hit in SW LA would be like Rita in SE TX with strong TS winds across HOU and Hurricane force across BPT.

A BPT hit would likely put hurricane force winds into at least E Harris.

jeff did you get my pm? (Sorry for the offtopic post)

[Windy]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/index_ten_l_loop.shtml

00z kickin

Haven't compared it to the last run, but just from memory that looks pretty far east from the 12Z.

[HouTXmetro]

Looks about the same.. Perhaps a tad bit east.

[Windy]

Yeah, looks about the same.

[PTPatrick]

0z GFS furth North and east it looks like. at 108 it shows trough over upper midwest opposed to hung up over Montana and Wyoming. Looks to have caught Ike and pulled him a little more poleward in that time frame comared to the 114 hr point on the 18z


Edit: Compare the 18z 114 hr at 500mlb to the 0z at 108 hours. You can clearly see the trough is more progressive...its over Minnesota not Wyoming
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_114l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_108l.gif

[Ivanhater]

Trough deeper and faster on this run..breaking down the ridge faster

18z run


00z

[deltadog03]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_108l.gif

Ike should be moving due north by that point.......This run breaks down the ridge quicker. IMO (early looks from 00z gfs) Is that the trend has been for the ridge to break down a bit quicker....from the 12z to 18z to now 00z.

[Texashawk]

Yeah, looks about the same.

Looks the same to me.

[HouTXmetro]

If the GFS is correct could be eastward shift. Bus as some of the promets said, models will flip flop. Couple of more runs, then consider it a trend for the GFS who was in South Texas a few runs ago.

[deltadog03]

IMHO the trends could go east for now...We are finally getting some better data(btwn now and a day or so from now) on the strength and position of the incoming trof..

[PTPatrick]

Hits the wall south of SE LA and sits there...still off the coast of SE LA at 138 hrs...tough trying to pick up over NOLA it looks like.

[deltadog03]

Here comes the hook....

[Windy]

Hits the wall south of SE LA and sits there...still off the coast of SE LA at 138 hrs...tough trying to pick up over NOLA it looks like.

I think Joe Bastardi has figured out how to hack into NCEP.

[superfly]

150 hours, south of NOLA moving NE.

[Ivanhater]

MAJOR change on this run..gets picked up by trough after sitting off SE Louisiana then pulling NE

[Stormcenter]

Hits the wall south of SE LA and sits there...still off the coast of SE LA at 138 hrs...tough trying to pick up over NOLA it looks like.

The stall is hard to buy since it did the same thing with Gustav.

[cycloneye]

Deltadog,here is the hook.