ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[drezee]

Refiring near center already, lets see what the Recon finds.

ANy area of low pressure it has is near buoy 42058 and is racing ahead of the convection...

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42058

no ... that buoy is at 15n 75w .. and that is way far in front of the system ,, 94l will be over that buoy later tonight..

I believe recon will tell a very different story...the low is likely 8 hours from this buoy or less

[Wx_Warrior]

Emotional? Oh my lands.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Just watched JB's update. Half of a 10 minute video about why the NHC should be calling this 94L a TD since yesterday, and some more on how he got the Southeast system when nobody else did.

His cone of uncertainty on 94L issued to his better paying clients yesterday shows 94L becoming a hurricane just before the Yucatan, with a landfall between Tampico and Brownsville, with the usual uncertainty area up to near Corpus Christi-ish area.

96L is a strong tropical storm or maybe a hurricane Sunday/Monday in Hatteras, and may swing close enough to New England to effect weather Tuesday.


Don't want to give more info than that, lest I violate a terms of service agreeement, and I offer no commentary on whether JB is correct or not, and while I do recall a few significant errors he has made, I also recall he basically called last year's Humberto 2 or 3 days before anyone else.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Speaking of recon, based on what the satellite looked like a couple of hours ago, I was expecting a tropical storm from this.


So far, anyhow, recon doesn't seem to support that, per my last visit to the recon thread. Matter of fact, it may look better on satellite, but today's recon doesn't seem any better than yesterday's, at least so far.

[HouTXmetro]

At this poingt, 96L looks much more organized than 94L.

[PTrackerLA]

Convection sure is refiring right over the same spot I've been following all morning. If there is a closed center, I'd bet its in that vicinity.

[Brent]

I don't know what to think about this system anymore. Don't see anything to support an upgrade though.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I don't know what to think about this system anymore. Don't see anything to support an upgrade though.

Based on how this was looking this morning, I was expecting more from recon than what is actually there. The 30-ish knot winds were at altitude and far from the possible center.


I was pretty sure this would be upgraded a few hours ago. Now I'd say less than 50/50 this is called a depression.


Maybe tomorrow.

Bad for Central America, good for Texas. The later it organizes, the less chance it has to come up into our part of the world.

[Derek Ortt]

not necessarily

even the models that keep this weak have this moving toward Texas

weak does NOT mean west... it means it moves with the low-level flow

[HouTXmetro]

Convection sure is refiring right over the same spot I've been following all morning. If there is a closed center, I'd bet its in that vicinity.

Am I missing something? I really don't see convection refiring anywhere.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html

[tailgater]

Convection sure is refiring right over the same spot I've been following all morning. If there is a closed center, I'd bet its in that vicinity.

Am I missing something? I really don't see convection refiring anywhere.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html

try this site
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

[Comanche]

Hey Ed, go read JB's new blog, just put out. He doesn't expect them to upgrade this yet as he thinks the center is in the process of re-forming north of where the NHC thinks it is.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Hey Ed, go read JB's new blog, just put out. He doesn't expect them to upgrade this yet as he thinks the center is in the process of re-forming north of where the NHC thinks it is.

Will do. Recon has no West winds, and they are close to the coast. Looking at NW Venezuelan coast and Eastern Colombian coast, along with Curacoa and Bonaire, most have Easterly or Southeasterly winds, I forget whether it was Coro or Maracaibo that was calm.


Just on that, 94L was better organized yesterday, when it was a loose area of low pressure with a broad but closed low. Now it is apparently just a sharp and convectively active wave.

[HouTXmetro]

So despite the sustained convection it's failing to organize.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I don't think this snip violates the terms of service, and this brings back a memory.

Now, I want to say something here. I doubt that there has been any one that has worked on hurricanes as long as I have. My first public hurricane forecast drew the ire of the NWS in 1976 when on WOND in Atlantic City I predicted a hurricane threat (I was in college at the time, and they paid me $25.00 a week, which covered gas for a month back then) for Atlantic city on a Thursday night for the Monday in front of us. At that time Belle had not formed. One of the people working at the Weather Service office at Pomona looked at me when I came in to check the maps Friday and asked me, just what the heck kind of voodoo was I looking at. Needless to say on Monday, they were getting plenty of overtime. (If I remember correctly, it was a storm that came early that week).

We hadn't moved to Texas quite yet, the National Guard came to our house and we evacuated. The Harkins also lived in Massapequa, but on the other side of Sunrise Highway. Mr. Harkin also worked flight dispatch with my Dad. The Harkins had cable and HBO, we just had rabbit ears and WABC and WOR and WPIX etc. I vaguely remember a Pittsburgh Pirate pitcher maybe throwing a no-hitter late into a game, and then what would have been my first ever "R" rated movie was starting. My parents were in NYC, my younger sister had a cancer scare with a stomach tumor, and was at the NY Hospital for Special Surgery (she didn't have cancer, and is alive today, although, unrelated, she has had pre-cancerous skin lesions removed and had some polyps snipped a few months ago during a colonoscopy). The Blue MPAA or whatever screen, with the "this picture is rated "R" came on TV, then the lights went out.


Belle did not flood our home on the Great South Bay, but a weeping willow tree uprooted and punched a hole through the roof of our neighbors, the Smiths, who lived on the corner of Curlew and Leewater.

[Brent]

2pm TWO:

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION TODAY. AN
AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY
INVESTIGATING THE DISTURBANCE. A TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD FORM AT
ANY TIME DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH. ALL INTERESTS IN JAMAICA...THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
COULD SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA THIS AFTERNOON AND ACROSS
JAMAICA TONIGHT. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE
CONSULT STATEMENTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

[gatorcane]

2pm TWO:

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION TODAY. AN
AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY
INVESTIGATING THE DISTURBANCE. A TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD FORM AT
ANY TIME DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH. ALL INTERESTS IN JAMAICA...THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
COULD SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA THIS AFTERNOON AND ACROSS
JAMAICA TONIGHT. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE
CONSULT STATEMENTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

WOW folks Jamaica and NW Caribbean sea? This thing won't be crashing into Central America then it looks like.

Not surprising, it confirms the projected path I have forecasted in the models thread....problem is I didn't factor in 96L and any weakness it may create.

[LAwxrgal]

96L will beat this system to the punch in getting upgraded, methinks.

[SkyDragon]

This is one VERY interesting invest!

[PTrackerLA]

Looks like this one might wait for the weekend to form. I don't think whether it develops today is significant, the overall theme is that there will be a threat to the western gulf of mexico next week IMO.