ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[HurricaneHunter914]

I think we'll have to wait till it's a good distance away from SA to become a TD. Convection has been very consistent throughout the day though.

[Ivanhater]

Well It has a good setup to form in the Western Caribbean, and the Low level flow (even if it stays weak) is also to the NW, not into Mexico..Even the new GFDL, which keeps this weak this run makes landfall in Louisiana..My take is this is a go for this weekend...

[CalmBeforeStorm]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/sloop-vis.html

Now that it 94L is clearing the influence of South America you can see evidence of clouds wrapping into the system on the SW side. I think you will see more evidence of a circulation very soon.

[gatorcane]

To me it looks like another possible location of a "center" would be on the 15N lattitude and about 73W. Check it out here in this pic. If a center manages to form farther north the ballgame does change as to where a developing system out of 94L goes. It puts it basically ESE of Jamaica on a WNW track that takes it on a more northerly lattitude through the Central Caribbean.

I'm venturing to say the NHC sees this and why it mentions Northwest Caribbean instead of Western Caribbean (and NHC mentions Jamaica) in its last discussion. Chances for an eventual northerly turn increase in this case. Hopefully it just doesn't develop.

[HarlequinBoy]

I wonder what the longest trackest invest has been? 94L has had a pretty long path w/o getting upgraded.

[cycloneye]

Well It has a good setup to form in the Western Caribbean, and the Low level flow (even if it stays weak) is also to the NW, not into Mexico..Even the new GFDL, which keeps this weak this run makes landfall in Louisiana..My take is this is a go for this weekend...

Look what awaits whatever this system may be before entering the NW Caribbean:

[Portastorm]

Yep, that's why Mr. Ortt has posted over in the Tropical Analysis section as has concerns about rapid intensification in that area of the Caribbean. Also should mention he believes he may see the LLC at 15.5 N, 72 W.

Correction: 14.5 north, 72 W.

[gatorcane]

Yep, that's why Mr. Orrtt has posted over in the Tropical Analysis section as has concerns about rapid intensification in that area of the Caribbean. Also should mention he believes he may see the LLC at 15.5 N, 72 W.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Then that is where I see it also. I do expect this to be a Hurricane before all said and done.

[coreyl]

Yep, that's why Mr. Ortt has posted over in the Tropical Analysis section as has concerns about rapid intensification in that area of the Caribbean. Also should mention he believes he may see the LLC at 15.5 N, 72 W.

Correction: 14.5 north, 72 W.

Where can I look at what Mr. Ortt says?

[gboudx]

Yep, that's why Mr. Ortt has posted over in the Tropical Analysis section as has concerns about rapid intensification in that area of the Caribbean. Also should mention he believes he may see the LLC at 15.5 N, 72 W.

Correction: 14.5 north, 72 W.

Where can I look at what Mr. Ortt says?

It's the Tropical Analysis forum. viewforum.php?f=29

[cycloneye]

Yep, that's why Mr. Ortt has posted over in the Tropical Analysis section as has concerns about rapid intensification in that area of the Caribbean. Also should mention he believes he may see the LLC at 15.5 N, 72 W.

Correction: 14.5 north, 72 W.

Where can I look at what Mr. Ortt says?

Here is the link to the thread of Derek Ortt

viewtopic.php?f=29&t=101823&start=0

[BigA]

You can find Derek Ortt's post on this in the Tropical Analysis section here

viewtopic.php?f=29&t=101823&start=60

[MiamiensisWx]

The Heat Content around Jamaica is higher than what hurricane katrina went over.

...and what's your implicit implication in your post? I know that you're stating a fact, but OHC is insignificant when compared to synoptics/thermodynamics.

Hopefully, some newer members won't grow unnecessarily antsy in regards to this post.

[Ed Mahmoud]

94L may not be exactly dead, but yesterday it had a closed, if broad, low level center, today it is an open wave.


I don't know about Dr. McCoy and "Its dead, Jim", but it has had its head frozen like Walt Disney in cryogenic storage.


I still think this eventually becomes something, but it seems to be in no hurry at the moment.

[Stratosphere747]

It's something that can't be emphasized enough. While SST's are an important ingredient, atmospheric conditions are far more important for a developing system.

[Cryomaniac]

The Heat Content around Jamaica is higher than what hurricane katrina went over.

...and what's your implicit implication in your post? I know that you're stating a fact, but OHC is insignificant when compared to synoptics/thermodynamics.

Hopefully, some newer members won't grow unnecessarily antsy in regards to this post.

Or any members for that matter.

I personally saw no implication in it, beyond stating a fact.

[Ivanhater]

This sure looks like this is in the process of developing to me..just look at the structure now compared to yesterday..if you watch the loop, you can see the northern part of 94L expand northward and "fanning" off to the Northeast (indicative of some good UL Divergence), this is getting the look of a developing cyclone, My take is this will be named tomorrow...

[ColdFusion]

My take is this will be named tomorrow...

If those deep reds keep re-firing on IR for the next few hours, maybe sooner?

[sgastorm]

18/1745 UTC 15.1N 71.5W T1.0/1.0 94L -- Atlantic Ocean

SAB seems to think the center is farther north.

[Stratosphere747]

The ULL while dipping more to the SW over the last few hours and inhibiting 94l in some form, looks to now have begun to move more towards the WSW.