ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[storms in NC]

You know I keep reading Floyd this and that. You I really don't like the( F) Word. Fran ,Floyd

But really you all in the island get thing ready if you haven't already. Best wish go to you all down there.

I can't believe that they haven't called it

[weatherguru18]

Well Fox News just sounded the alarm. Let me quote what was just said--"and next a tropical depression looks to be forming in the Atlantic. Forecasters say this could be a Category two hurricane in the coming days." He's saying this while a map of the east coast and Florida are showing.

As far as issueing warnings and what not...I know at my place of business, we can't get on tv and and spout off what we think...at least I can't. The news director would be through the roof if I did. Most meteorologists that are on tv have tied hands. I can't speak for everybody, but those who can't understand why we don't get up there and spout off "this thing could be a category two hurricane--prepare now!"...that's why. We converse behind the scenes. We see what's going on. We see it organizing. We just can't give false information...obviously.

[Aric Dunn]

If this is a TD...it is barely a TD. Looking at hi-res vis loops tells me that if there is a closed LLC...it is out near 18/63 and not under the MLC.

Anybody tracking an on-the-edge sloppy-looking LLC is going to get faked out. I say (in my furry unofficial jaguar capacity) that the MLC is going to close off an eyewall radar signature at around 700mb, then bomb straight to the surface in an hour, just like Dolly did near the northeast tip of the Yucatan while planes were futilely investing a dying swirl southwest of it.

first comes first. We need recon to confirm....

"Confirm" is exactly that: confirm. That does not mean that an LLC or a TD or aTS could not already be occurring, or even have been since sunrise.

Tropical systems aren't strange-quarks or Schrodinger's cats: They do exist in whatever state they are in independent of our examinations of them.

well actually they are ... just in our macroscopic world we dont notice it..

[Honeyko]

Estimated MLC center-fix from Antilles radar: 18.4N/61.5W
...or on the northwest edge of the coldest tops in the center of the round cirrus canopy. Ignore me if you like, but I'd suggest using that as a base tracking point for track projections.

[msbee]

I just wanted to interject for a second and remind everyone (as it seems we're in for a roller coaster few days) to take a deep breath. For those in the islands, this may become an immediate threat and we all need to remember that. For everyone, we need to remember that it's hard to understand a person's meaning just by reading the words. You can't get a tone just by reading a post. We need to remember that some people say things without thinking and we can't be offended by everything, but we also have to be sensitive to those that are dealing with bad weather situations too.

K...just wanted to get that off my chest.

On topic: WOW it's looking good today...I'm amazed. And I'm not happy to see how those waters near the Bahamas can support one nasty storm...oy LOL

good point but I for one sometimes get tired of people who say things without thinking. I find people on this board are sometimes insensitive to those who live in the islands . I understand that but they also may need a little reminding from time to time.
Especially since even tropical waves can sometimes cause a lot of damage on the islands.
Just MHO!

[expat2carib]

Local weather station on Anguilla here:

http://www.anguilla-weather.com/[/url]

[Thunder44]

Well Fox News just sounded the alarm. Let me quote what was just said--"and next a tropical depression looks to be forming in the Atlantic. Forecasters say this could be a Category two hurricane in the coming days." He's saying this while a map of the east coast and Florida are showing.

As far as issueing warnings and what not...I know at my place of business, we can't get on tv and and spout off what we think...at least I can't. The news director would be through the roof if I did. Most meteorologists that are on tv have tied hands. I can't speak for everybody, but those who can't understand why we don't get up there and spout off "this thing could be a category two hurricane--prepare now!"...that's why. We converse behind the scenes. We see what's going on. We see it organizing. We just can't give false information...obviously.

I didn't see Fox News. But I think they are getting that from Accuwx:

The thunderstorms by late Friday will begin to wrap around the center of the low pressure. As the developing system moves through the warm water of the western Atlantic it could rapidly intensify. Miller says that by the weekend, the system could become a Category 1 or Category 2 hurricane.

http://www.accuweather.com/news-top-hea ... 8-14_14:34

[canegrl04]

Well Fox News just sounded the alarm. Let me quote what was just said--"and next a tropical depression looks to be forming in the Atlantic. Forecasters say this could be a Category two hurricane in the coming days." He's saying this while a map of the east coast and Florida are showing.

As far as issueing warnings and what not...I know at my place of business, we can't get on tv and and spout off what we think...at least I can't. The news director would be through the roof if I did. Most meteorologists that are on tv have tied hands. I can't speak for everybody, but those who can't understand why we don't get up there and spout off "this thing could be a category two hurricane--prepare now!"...that's why. We converse behind the scenes. We see what's going on. We see it organizing. We just can't give false information...obviously.

Nobody in their right mind should be saying on the air what cat. of hurricane its going to be before its even officially upgraded to TS yet. .It could die off,recurve,or possible be a stronger than cat 2

[Vortex]

12Z CMC Central Gulf

12Z Nogaps still updating but by day 5 brings across eastern cuba then Keys/SFL.


12 Z loop


https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... 2008081412

[storms in NC]

It is really not moving that fast right now. Take a look at this one and you can see it is slow todayBut building up more and more.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

[Honeyko]

Eastward-darting cloud elements over Barbuda, suggesting closed circulation down to at least 850mb.

[KWT]

high resolution Sat imagery shows the weak LLC is indeed to the west of the convection but not by a big amount and less then it was yesterday by a good 75 miles. Some weak convection firing on it but compared to the powerful MLC with its convective ball its still a pathetic effort right now.

[Derek Ortt]

new TWO

000
ABNT20 KNHC 141739
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU AUG 14 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH INTO THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. WHILE
THE ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME MORE
CONCENTRATED...MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS LOCATED WELL EAST OF THE LOW
CENTER AT THIS TIME. NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT ARE CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING THE SYSTEM TO SEE IF A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS FORMED. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS
SYSTEM COULD BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS TO PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO
RICO...AND HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND INTERESTS IN
THESE AREAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT 1100 MILES EAST
OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM REMAINS LIMITED AND DISORGANIZED AND DEVELOPMENT...IF
ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES
MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE.. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 1739.shtml

NHC does not seem as impressed with this as I thought they'd be

[KWT]

NHC still tracking that weak LLC west of the MLC thats why Derek I think.

[Gustywind]

I just wanted to interject for a second and remind everyone (as it seems we're in for a roller coaster few days) to take a deep breath. For those in the islands, this may become an immediate threat and we all need to remember that. For everyone, we need to remember that it's hard to understand a person's meaning just by reading the words. You can't get a tone just by reading a post. We need to remember that some people say things without thinking and we can't be offended by everything, but we also have to be sensitive to those that are dealing with bad weather situations too.

K...just wanted to get that off my chest.

On topic: WOW it's looking good today...I'm amazed. And I'm not happy to see how those waters near the Bahamas can support one nasty storm...oy LOL

good point but I for one sometimes get tired of people who say things without thinking. I find people on this board are sometimes insensitive to those who live in the islands . I understand that but they also may need a little reminding from time to time.
Especially since even tropical waves can sometimes cause a lot of damage on the islands.
Just MHO!

Excellent post, wonderful reasoning i congratulate you and this is classical in many replies here unhopefully and i 'm a little upset sometimes:spam: when i read this dirty tkinks, hope you put some CLEARENCE with your nice post Msbee. Put some love compation sensibility in your heart before posting sometimes!

[littlevince]

Radar Loop (15:30-17:30z)

[Air Force Met]

Anybody tracking an on-the-edge sloppy-looking LLC is going to get faked out. I say (in my furry unofficial jaguar capacity) that the MLC is going to close off an eyewall radar signature at around 700mb, then bomb straight to the surface in an hour, just like Dolly did near the northeast tip of the Yucatan while planes were futilely investing a dying swirl southwest of it.

first comes first. We need recon to confirm....

"Confirm" is exactly that: confirm. That does not mean that an LLC or a TD or aTS could not already be occurring, or even have been since sunrise.

Tropical systems aren't strange-quarks or Schrodinger's cats: They do exist in whatever state they are in independent of our examinations of them.

Well...here is the diff b/w "furry unofficial jaguar" language and that of the scientist. You called it a TD. To be a TD...it has to have a closed LLC and I am saying...AS OF RIGHT NOW...if it has a LLC...it is that "sloppy-looking" thing on the edge of the convection. I even stated in my post that it could drill down from the MLC to its east...but RIGHT NOW is what we are talking about (or at least I am)...and right now consists of what is happening RIGHT NOW...not what MAY happen in an hour.

If you are going to call it a TD (present tense)...you have to do it based on what is happening RIGHT NOW. There is no getting faked out going on. You make a forecast based on what is happening RIGHT NOW and you forecast the very real possibility of something happening to the east.

As far as Schrodinger's cat and 92L are concerned...I can see into the box and the cat isn't alive...but I think the MLC is working CPR on it and it will be alive very shortly. You can see it catching up with the low level vortmax...and the winds are starting to back a little in front of it...so the cat will be alive soon enough.

As far as the other stuff you were saying...eyewall radar sig...etc...well...I'm not going to touch that.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Estimated MLC center-fix from Antilles radar: 18.4N/61.5W
...or on the northwest edge of the coldest tops in the center of the round cirrus canopy. Ignore me if you like, but I'd suggest using that as a base tracking point for track projections.

Using radar, I would personally place it closer to 18.0N/61.8W.

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... SAIC2.html

http://maps.google.com/maps?um=1&hl=en& ... a=N&tab=wl

[cheezyWXguy]

high resolution Sat imagery shows the weak LLC is indeed to the west of the convection but not by a big amount and less then it was yesterday by a good 75 miles. Some weak convection firing on it but compared to the powerful MLC with its convective ball its still a pathetic effort right now.

It will likely either get sucked in underneath it in the next few hours or just reform. It looks like inflow maybe flowing into two places: the dominant but weak llc to the west, and possibly the strong mlc that may be trying to work its way down to the surface in the middle of the convection. I still think that this will be a td in the next 12 hours.

[storms in NC]

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