ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[meteorologyman]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.[/quote]

IMO as of now the bend area of FL is the main target and I'll list my observation and weather patterns can change at any time. first of all look at the water vapor loop in Gulf of Mexico and look where it is heading (this may be small indicator for tracking. storms). http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-wv.html

Also look at the wind mean analysis for tracking systems in MIDDEL OF PAGE. the 1st is for Tropical storms and the last one is for a cat 5 Hurricane notice that majority takes it to western tip of cuba as forcasted from all model as of now and take to bend area of FL.
Big PAGE ! http://www.crownweather.com/atlantic.html

There is what also appears to be a tail or front forming in center of Gulf of Mexico heading East.

Again weather can change at any time so prepare for the worst and hope for the best.
comments and oppinions are very appreciated. Again this is just my observation so please don't attack me lol.

[Dean4Storms]

I see no hints of a West turn yet at all, still NW or even NNW and moving into haiti now.

My look at the visible loop sees a mostly west-trending eye that could still be offshore and is, for the most part, right down the NHC track.

I feel the High pressure that has been well recognized on this board and by the storm itself would preclude any move towards Florida.

Hello????

Uh, there is such a thing called the Panhandle in Florida that is certainly not out of the possible track.

[Wx_Warrior]

Metro...I agree 100%...We haven't seen the last of a model shift being 7 days out!

[HURAKAN]

It looks pretty good in my opinion. If you use a low-resolution image, then it doesn't look that great.

[rockyman]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

IMO as of now the bend area of FL is the main target and I'll list my observation and weather patterns can change at any time. first of all look at the water vapor loop in Gulf of Mexico and look where it is heading (this may be small indicator for tracking. storms). http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-wv.html

Also look at the wind mean analysis for tracking systems in MIDDEL OF PAGE. the 1st is for Tropical storms and the last one is for a cat 5 Hurricane notice that majority takes it to western tip of cuba as forcasted from all model as of now and take to bend area of FL.
Big PAGE ! http://www.crownweather.com/atlantic.html

There is what also appears to be a tail or front forming in center of Gulf of Mexico heading East.

Again weather can change at any time so prepare for the worst and hope for the best.
comments and oppinions are very appreciated. Again this is just my observation so please don't attack me lol.

You'd be correct IF those steering currents were static...but they are not...as Fay moves out to the NE, those arrows will change and will no longer point toward the Big Bend

[ConvergenceZone]

I guess the good news is that if it gets in the gulf, it's flying....Check out the territory it covers from
Saturday Am to Sunday AM... http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... ml#a_topad

This is always good news in it won't be sitting there and dumping and blowing....It's really moving quickly..
Hopefully the quick speed of it will also keep it from strengthening near as fast.....

[Dean4Storms]

The Canadian.......LOLOLOLOL!!!!!

It has 5 storms out there.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[Scorpion]

I guess the good news is that if it gets in the gulf, it's flying....Check out the territory it covers from
Saturday Am to Saturday PM.... http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... ml#a_topad

This is always good news in it won't be sitting there and dumping and blowing....It's really moving quickly..
Hopefully the quick speed of it will also keep it from strengthening near as fast.....

Quick speed would result in stronger winds on the right front quad not to mention less time for weakening before landfall.

[x-y-no]

I see no hints of a West turn yet at all, still NW or even NNW and moving into haiti now.

I wouldn't be surprised if we see the NHC slow down the short-term motion/track substantially at the 5pm advisory given the evidence x-y-no has presented.

http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... 1_loop.gif

I see no reason to slow the system down based on what was a dodgy GFS run that lost then found then lost the system over and over again...

As for the motion however I also don't see any west turn either, looks to me still around 300, though I don't think its even close to NNW thats just the eye becoming better defined again IMO.

Finally...that looks ok for a category-1 hurricane, its nothing special I agree but equally its pretty typical of what cat-1's look like.

Again, just to clarify - my original question derived from this morning's upper air sounding at Kingston. The GFS run was merely further corroboration. Incidentally, what's dodgy about the GFS as I see it is that it decouples the low and mid levels of Gustav, moving the latter west while keeping the former in the vicinity of Haiti. That leads directly to it losing the system later.

[Sanibel]

Yeah, the eye is squarely onshore in that shot. So it is a touch N of NHC.


Yes, Dean, I should have said "peninsular" Florida.

[gatorcane]

I wonder why the GFS decouples Gustav -- it may just be on to something.

I still see a nasty ULL diving SW pretty quickly towards Gustav...if it just makes it in time, it will shear Gustav pretty badly:

http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... 1_loop.gif

I'm just hoping here but still there is a giant anticyclone building over the Western GOM and shear is very low -- Gustav is not that far from tapping into that very good upper-level environment, unfortunately.

[KWT]

Thats exactly the problem, there is no reason why Gustav will decouple, if there was 30kts of shear then that would be a fine forecast but theres not.

Hurakan, yep on the high resolution Gustav looks very good, much more like a cat-2 than a cat-1 in fact I think on that imagery.

[x-y-no]

Thats exactly the problem, there is no reason why Gustav will decouple, if there was 30kts of shear then that would be a fine forecast but theres not.

Hurakan, yep on the high resolution Gustav looks very good, much more like a cat-2 than a cat-1 in fact I think on that imagery.

Right. There's no reason to think Gustav will fall apart. But to me that implies that what he will do is move west more slowly than the decoupled low-level feature does in the GFS run.

[Sanibel]

If GFS isn't identifying that obviously well-formed cyclone I would disregard it.

[dwg71]

If GFS isn't identifying that obviously well-formed cyclone I would disregard it.

you cant disregard the GFS steering patterns though..

[KWT]

Gatorcane, as I said before this system is very close to being on the eastern side of the high, once its under that then the ULL won't make much if any difference to gustav as it won't possibly be able to reach it as this high is strong at the upper levels as well.

[gatorcane]

indeed and the GFS builds a SW-NE oriented ridge over the Western Caribbean which may drive Gustav even more WSW so if we are lucky, it could miss the GOM all together.

we shall see.

[CrazyC83]

The eye of Gustav is TINY. The pressure was pinpointed at 980mb but quickly rose back up.

[dwg71]

:uarrow:

indeed and the GFS builds a SW-NE oriented ridge over the Western Caribbean which may drive Gustav even more WSW.....

we shall see.

In the short term, let's look out 5-7 days and see where it might be.

[x-y-no]

WSW is one possibility, I think, The other is more slowly west.

Or I could just be wrong.