ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[Air Force Met]

If GFS isn't identifying that obviously well-formed cyclone I would disregard it.

you cant disregard the GFS steering patterns though..

Agreed. Everyone needs to stop stressing over the GFS not seeing a 980 mb low. Its resolution isn't high enough. The steering flow is what you want to understand anyway...and its OK to consider it...with our without a well formed cyclone on its grid.

[dwg71]

If GFS isn't identifying that obviously well-formed cyclone I would disregard it.

you cant disregard the GFS steering patterns though..

Agreed. Everyone needs to stop stressing over the GFS not seeing a 980 mb low. Its resolution isn't high enough. The steering flow is what you want to understand anyway...and its OK to consider it...with our without a well formed cyclone on its grid.

AFM, give us the 1:12PM AFM update...

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

The latest NHC track makes me sick to my stomach...I'd hate to
see the gulf coast get another hit after the 2005 monsters
did catastrophic damage to those same areas.

I PRAY that Gustav does NOT reach high strength in the gulf.
My PRAYERS are with gulf coast residents in the possible
path this weekend.

[Yankeegirl]

whatever it is or whatever it becomes i don't like the looks of it.... this is something everyone who lives on the gulf coast needs to watch closely.... i know i am....

[tailgater]

The Canadian.......LOLOLOLOL!!!!!

It has 5 storms out there.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

6 if you count the 1 in the E Pac. and Gus is the weakest one of the bunch.

[Air Force Met]

Gatorcane, as I said before this system is very close to being on the eastern side of the high, once its under that then the ULL won't make much if any difference to gustav as it won't possibly be able to reach it as this high is strong at the upper levels as well.

I think the only thing that ULL will do is ventilate it on the eastern side...and probably pretty efficiently.

[haml8]

Oh boy... let the hype begin!! Did anyone catch the National Fox weather lady Janice @1:15 CST? They are saying "We feel it is moving south of cuba and will possibly strengthen to a CAT 5 storm.... Let the doomcasting begin...

[x-y-no]

If GFS isn't identifying that obviously well-formed cyclone I would disregard it.

you cant disregard the GFS steering patterns though..

Agreed. Everyone needs to stop stressing over the GFS not seeing a 980 mb low. Its resolution isn't high enough. The steering flow is what you want to understand anyway...and its OK to consider it...with our without a well formed cyclone on its grid.

AFM, do you have any thoughts about whether I'm crazy? I'm looking at the current and forecast 500mb ridging wrapping around to the west of Gustav, and thinking that should lead to slower movement west than is forecast.

[Dean4Storms]

Yeah, the eye is squarely onshore in that shot. So it is a touch N of NHC.


Yes, Dean, I should have said "peninsular" Florida.

Thank You!

[Stormcenter]

The eye of Gustav is TINY. The pressure was pinpointed at 980mb but quickly rose back up.

That's the only good news about this storm.
It is NOT (well at least not now) anywhere near
the size of that K storm.

[jlauderdal]

Already a lot of buzz in the office today about this thing coming nearby this weekend.

In reviewing the maps, there looks to be some signifigant turns/changes in direction for the forcast track to come actually occur. Any any when we can start seeing if the NHC track is being followed?

it could make it to houston this weekend if it put on some jet engines

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Have the levees been rebuilt since Katrina?? I saw a documentary
they are building a stronger levee???

[jlauderdal]

Gatorcane, as I said before this system is very close to being on the eastern side of the high, once its under that then the ULL won't make much if any difference to gustav as it won't possibly be able to reach it as this high is strong at the upper levels as well.

I think the only thing that ULL will do is ventilate it on the eastern side...and probably pretty efficiently.

we had a good lesson on nautical miles from you yesterday, how about some other goodies..

[CrazyC83]

The eye of Gustav is TINY. The pressure was pinpointed at 980mb but quickly rose back up.

That's the only good news about this storm.
It is NOT (well at least not now) anywhere near
the size of that K storm.

Gustav's entire circulation could fit in Katrina's hurricane wind field. It is similar to Charley at this point.

[CourierPR]

Oh boy... let the hype begin!! Did anyone catch the National Fox weather lady Janice @1:15 CST? They are saying "We feel it is moving south of cuba and will possibly strengthen to a CAT 5 storm.... Let the doomcasting begin...

For the moment, however, Gustav is moving northwest over the SW coast of Haiti.

[Dean4Storms]

Have the levees been rebuilt since Katrina?? I saw a documentary
they are building a stronger levee???

There is nothing they can do with a Cat 4 or 5.

[tgenius]

So is the NW motion of Gustav NOT expected? Wasn't it supposed to be West?

[KWT]

Yep thats the real fear AFM, esp once this system manages to round the high pressure's eastern flank which does seem to be slightly surpressing the northern outflow a little.

Still see no reason why this won't be a cat-4 by early this weekend to be honest unless this goes north of where its expected. Overall conditons just look primed IMO.

[duris]

Have the levees been rebuilt since Katrina?? I saw a documentary
they are building a stronger levee???

There is nothing they can do with a Cat 4 or 5.

Recent AP story "New Orleans repeating deadly levee mistakes", http://www.neworleanscitybusiness.com/U ... ecID=19382

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Have the levees been rebuilt since Katrina?? I saw a documentary
they are building a stronger levee???

There is nothing they can do with a Cat 4 or 5.

I thought I saw a TWC documentary with the Army Engineers
building a much higher better constructed "wall" in the area
that is supposed to resist a cat 4/5. It was a few months ago,
but there is a large group of Army engineers building an impressive
wall of defense- at least on that documentary.