ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[Steve]

>>Let the doomcasting begin...

Great term IMHO.

>>It is NOT (well at least not now) anywhere near
the size of that K storm.

Hard to say what effect mid-upper 80's water will have on size. If he finds himself under a strong anti-cyclone, there should be ample time and room to spread out. We won't know for a few days.

>>Have the levees been rebuilt since Katrina??

They are building stronger ones and ringing the coast all around SE and S LA. It's going to take 10 years or more. If we have a setback or two, that's expected.

Steve

[cycloneye]

The 18:00 UTC Best Track weakens Gustav down to 70kts,it was expected to weaken while in Haiti.

AL, 07, 2008082618, , BEST, 0, 182N, 728W, 70, 992, HU,

[cpdaman]

what was it about camile that allowed her to maintain such a high intensity whem the most recent (cat4's or 5's) that i see in the northern gulf almost always weaken 2 category's at landfall.

[dwg71]

The 18:00 UTC Best Track weakens Gustav down to 70kts,it was expected to weaken while in Haiti.

AL, 07, 2008082618, , BEST, 0, 182N, 728W, 70, 992, HU,

I think 70KTs is generous... Nothing from recon shows anywhere near that, unless I missed something.

[RL3AO]

Its over land. They didn't get the NE quad so the 70kt is probably right.

[Dean4Storms]

what was it about camile that allowed her to maintain such a high intensity whem the most recent (cat4's or 5's) that i see in the northern gulf almost always weaken 2 category's at landfall.

Warm SST's and no shear or dry air entrainment. Could repeat itself if the same perfect conditions ever exist right along the coast.

[CrazyC83]

992 seems too high, I guess they discounted the 980?

[Lowpressure]

what was it about camile that allowed her to maintain such a high intensity whem the most recent (cat4's or 5's) that i see in the northern gulf almost always weaken 2 category's at landfall.

I would say heat content above 27 north- not water temp- but heat content. I would also say we (NHC) is much more accurate with storm intensity now than in 1969. Camille was a relatively small but very violent storm. I will not go as far as to say they had her intensity wrong, but we are much more certain today.

[Derek Ortt]

how in the world did everyone miss the 980? Unless it was determined to be an error?

[KWT]

Not sure recon got the center as its probably a little inland now so I'm surprised the NHC have taken the recon report as truth.

Also indeed the NE quadrant probably does have much higher winds but is overland so can't be sampled. Shouldn't take at all long for it cross Haiti given how narrow it is, then after its done given Haiti a horrible time the real interesting stuff begins like watching for the turn to the west.

Derek, I don't know I wonder whether they will have to correct the VDM?

[DANNY-UK]

Hi guys,

Ill apolagise in advance if i have possted this in the wrong area

Well im going to florida (orlando) on the 3rd september for 2 weeks and i have been browsing the web only to find hurricane gustav. Now ill be the first to admit that i know pretty much nothing about hurricanes apart from the is alot of wind and rain, so i was wondering if one of you guys who know much more could tell me if it will affect our plans.

any help would be much appreciated,
thanks

[srainhoutx]

how in the world did everyone miss the 980? Unless it was determined to be an error?

I clearly saw the 979.7mb reading Derek.

[Sanibel]

I think people are missing the fact that it has already turned more west and should therefore run the length of that arm of Haiti. Or at least a good lengthwise portion.

[Derek Ortt]

there are 990 on both sides of the 980. 992 seems bizarre at this moment

[KWT]

Yeah I have to agree Derek its slightly odd, given its got such a small center of circulation its quite possible that there is a very tight gradient and 979.7 recording is valid.

[cycloneye]

Moving more Westnorthwest now as it was 325 degrees earlier.

INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 18.2N LONCUR = 72.8W DIRCUR = 310DEG SPDCUR = 9KT

[srainhoutx]

there are 990 on both sides of the 980. 992 seems bizarre at this moment

Agreed. Center fix was dead on, but then this pressure issue has raised my eyebrows.

[gtalum]

Well im going to florida (orlando) on the 3rd september for 2 weeks and i have been browsing the web only to find hurricane gustav. Now ill be the first to admit that i know pretty much nothing about hurricanes apart from the is alot of wind and rain, so i was wondering if one of you guys who know much more could tell me if it will affect our plans.

Orlando is generally relatively safe from damaging hurricane winds, but during hurricane season there is always a decent chance of getting drenched with rain. That said, just watch the evening news while you're there and you should be kept well-informed of what's going on with regards to any storm threats.

[Air Force Met]

AFM, give us the 1:12PM AFM update...

Here it is: Current Hurricane center track looks good. That is my track from yesterday morning. I am starting to lean away from my northern GoM ideas. Looking at a lot of the consensus forecasts (mostly CGUN, TCON, TCCN, along with HWRF and GFDL combo)...I think it heads up to the central Gulf slows down...then maybe continuing NW into the NW Gulf...or..depending on the high strength....it could turn back west.

So....the western and NW gulf is open now.

[Wx_Warrior]