ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[Wx_Warrior]

Thanks for posting 'hater...Much appreciated...Anything on the 0z GFDL? Last night it was a mirror image of HWRF.

[Stormcenter]

great

But it's the Canadian.

[Stratosphere747]

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

HURRICANE IKE 09L

INITIAL TIME 0Z SEP 8

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 21.1 75.2 275./11.1
6 21.0 76.3 268./10.4
12 21.5 77.4 295./10.8
18 21.8 78.8 281./14.1
24 22.1 80.1 282./11.6
30 22.4 81.3 282./11.5
36 22.7 82.2 292./ 9.3
42 23.2 83.0 301./ 8.5
48 23.5 83.6 299./ 6.6
54 24.1 84.2 315./ 8.2
60 24.6 84.9 307./ 7.8
66 25.0 85.6 300./ 7.2
72 25.4 86.1 303./ 5.9
78 25.8 86.8 299./ 7.5
84 26.3 87.6 302./ 9.3
90 26.7 88.5 295./ 8.9
96 27.1 89.5 294./ 9.6
102 27.5 90.3 295./ 8.2
108 28.2 90.9 316./ 8.8
114 28.7 91.5 312./ 6.7
120 29.1 91.8 325./ 4.9
126 29.4 92.0 321./ 4.3

[Stormcenter]

Here is another vote for the hook NE.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ngptc2.c ... =Animation

[Ivanhater]

gfdl stays the same..moving north at the end

[Wx_Warrior]

GFDL looks like the exact spot (Central La) as the 18z....Thanks for posting guys!

EDIT: Lafayette (per my pro met brother's eye)

[Stormcenter]

My early landfall guess is the Fl. panhandle as maybe a Cat.1-2. We shall see.

[shah8]

Hmmm, the GFDL follows pretty closely the NHC path over Cuba.

[hicksta]

So the cmc and gfdl are agreeing on LA. Gonna be a great week here in br

[Viper54r]

So the cmc and gfdl are agreeing on LA. Gonna be a great week here in br

And the HWRF

[vaffie]

UKMET still seeing a strong ridge and is south of the consensus. So far, CMC, HWRF, AVNO (GFS) shifted east. GFDL and UKMET stayed more or less the same. Waiting on the Euro now. If the EURO nudges east, the 5 am NHC track will surely nudge east too. I'm not buying the New Orleans/Panhandle track though. The front looks way too weak, even though it is more progressive. If it was strong, Ike would have jetted out northeast but it stalls in most of the runs. So I expect them all to move back westward over the next two or three runs.

[PTrackerLA]

Not concerned yet, I think Cuba will have its way with Ike and I'm hoping for an Isidore-like outcome to all of this. If by Wednesday we have a strengthening hurricane in the gulf then it's time to be alarmed. Hopefully the trough saves us.

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

So looks like I might be headed to LA sometime this week! I am excited about all though I wish it was under better circumstances. It will be my first time down to the Gulf coast!

[cape_escape]

Here is another vote for the hook NE.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ngptc2.c ... =Animation

Big yuck!

[Sanibel]

00Z GFDL is perched under New Orleans. Better hope for a trough.

[Ivanhater]

Euro thorough 96 hours is way east of the 12 run

[Wx_Warrior]

Post a landfall when finished 'hater.

[Ivanhater]

Post a landfall when finished 'hater.

Gotcha buddy

[Viper54r]

Can somebody post times for the 06Z runs for us "newbies"?

[Ivanhater]

Euro shifts from South Texas to Houston