#2695 Postby duris » Tue Aug 26, 2008 1:51 pm
From NOLA.com story on LA gearing up for possible impact (not anything I don't think we don't already know from this board or NHC discussion):
At noon Central time, Gustav crossed the southwestern coast of Haiti, packing winds of 90 mph, said Lieut. Cmdr. Dave Roberts, a Navy hurricane specialist sharing forecasting duties at the National Hurricane Center.
"You'll probably see some slight weakening until it pops out over the passage (between Haiti and Cuba)," Roberts said. "Then we should see significant strengthening as it moves over the northwestern portion of the Caribbean and potentially becoming a Category 2 as it reaches the Yucatan Strait."
Very warm sea surface temperatures and favorable upper-level winds are fueling Gustav's growth, Roberts said.
Gustav is forecast to turn more towards the west northwest and west over the next few days, and should be in the south central Gulf by Sunday morning.
Several computer models show the storm tracking northwestward across the Gulf towards the mouth of the Mississippi River after that, and strengthening to a Category 4 hurricane.
But there are some signs that there will be weak steering currents greeting Gustav when it enters the Gulf, he said. At the moment, the storm is being steered by a southwestern extension of a subtropical high pressure system sitting over the Bahamas and Florida, while a lower pressure "weakness" extending from the Mississippi valley into the central Gulf seems to be drawing the storm forward.
"In terms of the dynamical models, the spread is rather large," Roberts said. "We have models showing motions into the Bay of Campeche to the west, all the way into the northeastern and eastern Gulf.
"That's very close to what you see in the forecast cone of uncertainty," he said. "Interests in the northern Gulf, along the Texas coast, even northeastern portions of Florida, should watch where it's going."
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