ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[Wx_Warrior]

Big shifts to the east now....the trend is setting. I'm not ready to give a "halftime" prediction but my first (last week) was NE GOM (East of Miss).

EDIT: Thank you 'hater!!!!

[GoneBabyGone]

So I'm guessing the NHC will follow that trend?

Not good.

[Duddy]

Back and forth and back and forth. I'm no pro-met, but it's pretty obvious that since 1961, the central Texas coast has had a Hurricane Shield over it, preventing strong storms from coming here. So based on that fact, I'm guessing LA again. Because life is getting alittle too repetitive and predictable.

[Ivanhater]

Big shifts to the east now....the trend is setting.

EDIT: Thank you 'hater!!!!

No problem..off to bed now..these 00z models had the Noaa mission it seems..tomorrow should be interesting to see the models handle this trough..still many days out and models will flip

[Duddy]

Big shifts to the east now....the trend is setting.

EDIT: Thank you 'hater!!!!

I thought a trend is when model runs at different times (00z, 08z, 12z) had a certain agreement. Not when multiple models predict the same thing at once.

[Ivanhater]

Edit...Euro takes a turn at the end..landing TX/LA border..big shift east with nearly every model

[attallaman]

Edit...Euro takes a turn at the end..landing TX/LA border..big shift east with nearly every model

How far to the E? LA/MS state line?

[Stratosphere747]

Edit...Euro takes a turn at the end..landing TX/LA border..big shift east with nearly every model

You sure you're looking at the model...

[Ivanhater]

Edit...Euro takes a turn at the end..landing TX/LA border..big shift east with nearly every model

You sure you're looking at the model...

Lol Strat...I think you have to be a pro or pay to get the early output, but hearing from the ones that do, thats what they say

[Weatherfreak000]

No surprises here....shift East with a pick up by the trough...models are starting to see the trough without a doubt.


A bit early, but i'll go on a limb and say SE Texas may be spared. Of course...I totally expect model shifts again today.

[Duddy]

The NGFDL and UKMET still point to Corpus-Freeport.

[Ivanhater]

Euro hooking Ike NE shortly aflter landfall

[attallaman]

Big shifts to the east now....the trend is setting. I'm not ready to give a "halftime" prediction but my first (last week) was NE GOM (East of Miss).

EDIT: Thank you 'hater!!!!

How many times a day do those noodle model runs update? Model runs like the ones posted on Wunderground? The track from the NHC updates every 4 or is it every 6 hours?

[Duddy]

[Stratosphere747]

Edit...Euro takes a turn at the end..landing TX/LA border..big shift east with nearly every model

You sure you're looking at the model...

Lol Strat...I think you have to be a pro or pay to get the early output, but hearing from the ones that do, thats what they say

One thing of note is that this run shows almost exactly what yesterdays 0z run showed. It will be curious to hear how they NHC handles the changes in the next disco.

[attallaman]

Is the next advisory on Ike from the NHC due out at 4:00 a.m., CDT?

[attallaman]

Which model or models are the most reliable when it comes to tracking a cane?

[southerngale]

Is the next advisory on Ike from the NHC due out at 4:00 a.m., CDT?

Yes.

[attallaman]

Is the next advisory on Ike from the NHC due out at 4:00 a.m., CDT?

Yes.

Thanks.

[superfly]

Which model or models are the most reliable when it comes to tracking a cane?

ECMWF, GFS, GFDL, and HWRF are the only 4 I really pay attention to now. UKMET has been really off with TCs this season.