ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[Innotech]

you can somewhat see bands of convection being spiralled around the circulation. I think it is definitely wrapping up now. There was always some circulation, but never this pronounced. You can see the clouds moving SW to NE in the lower SW quadrant and in all directions around it the clouds are appearing to circulate. If this is mid levels it wont just be for long.

[senorpepr]

Cow bell baby! Needs more cow bell. Always a nice day when a Walken photo can show up on the ole s2k!

That sparked an idea. Just like the "It's dead, Jim" images, I should make some "I need more ____, baby!" images w/ Walken.


I can see it now: "I need more convection, baby!"

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

you can somewhat see bands of convection being spiralled around the circulation. I think it is definitely wrapping up now. There was always some circulation, but never this pronounced. You can see the clouds moving SW to NE in the lower SW quadrant and in all directions around it the clouds are appearing to circulate. If this is mid levels it wont just be for long.

I will believe it when the nhc declares this a tropical depression.

[Sanibel]

No doubt 94L is going to take a roughing up from the ULL. My guess is 94L will compromise the ULL slightly and that should allow it to survive while it passes.


(On-topic ehmm, ehmm)

[Innotech]

000
WONT41 KNHC 182043
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
445 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2008

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FOUND THAT THE
BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA NO LONGER HAS
A CLOSED CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM COULD STILL BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT 15-20 MPH. ALL INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/BLAKE

94L seems to be playing hide and seek with Recon. Juast as they were leaving, it began to wrap. If they went in right now I bet they would find something very interesting.

[jasons2k]

It's running north of the models now - a bit more concerning. As it clears the S.A. coast it will have a better chance to develop - tonight should be interesting for sure.

[gatorcane]

It's running north of the models now - a bit more concerning. As it clears the S.A. coast it will have a better chance to develop - tonight should be interesting for sure.

jasons I agree, been watching 94L gain in lattitude. Lately the proposed LLC seems to be moving due W though.

[cheezyWXguy]

000
WONT41 KNHC 182043
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
445 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2008

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FOUND THAT THE
BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA NO LONGER HAS
A CLOSED CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM COULD STILL BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT 15-20 MPH. ALL INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/BLAKE

Well, obviously not, because as a new center forms, the old one opens up. I think recon caught the storm in between the dying of the old one and the reformation of the new one.

[Derek Ortt]

NHC seems a lot less bullih on the system than earlier today

som need to accept the data that there IS NO SURFACE CIRCULATION. It dissipated. It will take a little while for it to reform

[Sanibel]

The lower (more west) 94L tracks the more it clears the ULL.

[cpdaman]

I dont want a big storm either, but it seems like "anti-wishcasting."

That has to be a first... someone being called an "anti-wish caster".

If you look up this definition you would find ---"Frank2"

sorry i have to laugh (and yes i will be getting right back on topic)

[PTrackerLA]

I hope it just vanishes overnight, I'm so sick of this thing. Please send some moisture our way next week though, it's been hot and dry for a while.


Hey 94L, can we all have our week back? Thanks.

[Derek Ortt]

the ULL is dropping SW... a southerly track will send the WAVE right into the heart of the shear

It needs to move more northerly to be aided by the ULL

[wxman57]

94L is definitely developing a pretty significant LLC. Theres no questioning it at this point. Its obvious.

Recon shows no LLC. This won't have a LL defined enough to be upgraded before it slams into centeral America.

There was no circulation center when recon was in. There is now.

What you're seeing may not be at the surface. I agree, I see spin too. Surface obs don't support an LLC.

[Innotech]

I hope it just vanishes overnight, I'm so sick of this thing. Please send some moisture our way next week though, it's been hot and dry for a while.


Hey 94L, can we all have our week back? Thanks.

say what? I live in Lafayette too and it sure as heck hasnt been dry. hot yes, but its been raining almost daily for the last month. There was a thunderstorm yesterday in fact.

[gatorcane]

Agreed but its just a matter of time now. 94L has made two important steps in becoming a TD:

1) Moved itself far enough N of South America
2) Build up deep convection and show some divergence

Problem is it lost the LLC in the process. That should come back over the next 6-12 hours though. I still think it will develop.

IMHO it probably could have been nominally classified as a depression a few times in its evolution. Soon though there should be no doubt.

[Derek Ortt]

I just looked at a high-res vis and it is clearly at the mid levels

[JPmia]

000
WONT41 KNHC 182043
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
445 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2008

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FOUND THAT THE
BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA NO LONGER HAS
A CLOSED CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM COULD STILL BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT 15-20 MPH. ALL INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/BLAKE

"NO LONGER HAS A CLOSED CIRCULATION." implies that there was one...so why didn't they call it a depression then? I am confused. Oh, and I am definitely an "anti-wishcaster."

[Innotech]

the ULL is dropping SW... a southerly track will send the WAVE right into the heart of the shear

It needs to move more northerly to be aided by the ULL

mid level that will soon be low level.
This storm is going to spin up. Its too tenacious to stop now.

[senorpepr]

"NO LONGER HAS A CLOSED CIRCULATION." implies that there was one...so why didn't they call it a depression then? I am confused. Oh, and I am definitely an "anti-wonderful forecaster."

While it was a closed circulation, it was broad. You need a well-defined closed circulation to qualify as a tropical depression.