ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[Viper54r]

6Z GFS: Ike not picked up by the trough, moving west towards Texas

You're calling that through 114 hrs?

[caneman]

Can't see it making it to Tampa unless some major slow down, stall in the GOM occurs but do think Ms. to Panhnadle are very much in play on a NE hook

[KWT]

Does look like it only moves slightly north of west through 108-120hrs...

[stormhorn]

Can't see it making it to Tampa unless some major slow down, stall in the GOM occurs but do think Ms. to Panhnadle are very much in play on a NE hook

NOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[stormhorn]

What the He!!?? Went to bed thinking, "Ahhhh...Texas!" Wake up to this blasphemy.

[caneman]

can someone please post the run? The sites I use doesn't have the 06 run yet

[Viper54r]

Same ole 00Z hook between 126 and 144

[dwg71]

144 hours just stalled off sw la coast.

[caneman]

What the He!!?? Went to bed thinking, "Ahhhh...Texas!" Wake up to this blasphemy.

One again, you can't get hung up on the 06 run For the last 2 days they've trended East. If you see that trend there with later runs then you have cause for concern, however, it is still many days away.

[Air Force Met]

6Z GFS even further east than 0Z. The trend has begun, and the trend is Texas friend. I suspect the 12Z models will continue, and my prediction I backed away from, Lake Charles to Tampa, centered on Mobile, would have been a good one if I hadn't gotten nervous.

Very unofficial, Lake Charles to Panama City Beach, centered between Morgan City and Mobile. Very unofficial and quite amateur,

Its further west. Not sure where you are getting that its further east. Its 200 miles further west at day 6.

00z



06z





00z


06z

[caneman]

Models from different ends of the spectrum starting to lock in on an area but still many days away. And that lock in could change by several hundred miles either way within a couple of days.

[stormhorn]

What the He!!?? Went to bed thinking, "Ahhhh...Texas!" Wake up to this blasphemy.

One again, you can't get hung up on the 06 run For the last 2 days they've trended East. If you see that trend there with later runs then you have cause for concern, however, it is still many days away.

Ohhh..Ok?? You don't think it will ACTUALLY go between Miss and Panhandle.

[dwg71]

156 hours and still off shore

[caneman]

What the He!!?? Went to bed thinking, "Ahhhh...Texas!" Wake up to this blasphemy.

One again, you can't get hung up on the 06 run For the last 2 days they've trended East. If you see that trend there with later runs then you have cause for concern, however, it is still many days away.

Ohhh..Ok?? You don't think it will ACTUALLY go between Miss and Panhandle.

everyone has a guess/opinion. I'm just an amateur who has followed these things for many years. Follow the NHC. Track these things long enough and you will too

[Ed Mahmoud]

6Z GFS even further east than 0Z. The trend has begun, and the trend is Texas friend. I suspect the 12Z models will continue, and my prediction I backed away from, Lake Charles to Tampa, centered on Mobile, would have been a good one if I hadn't gotten nervous.

Very unofficial, Lake Charles to Panama City Beach, centered between Morgan City and Mobile. Very unofficial and quite amateur,

Its further west. Not sure where you are getting that its further east. Its 200 miles further west at day 6.

00z



06z





00z


06z

See edit. I realized I clicked on wrong thingie on FSU experimental page and fixed it before you even posted on the error.

[dwg71]

168 hours and still off shore

[superfly]

Stalled off TX/LA border for 2 days.

132h:


174h:

[stormhorn]

One again, you can't get hung up on the 06 run For the last 2 days they've trended East. If you see that trend there with later runs then you have cause for concern, however, it is still many days away.[/quote]
Ohhh..Ok?? You don't think it will ACTUALLY go between Miss and Panhandle. [/quote]


everyone has a guess/opinion. I'm just an amateur who has followed these things for many years. Follow the NHC. Track these things long enough and you will too[/quote]
Note where I live Tracking these things isn't a NEW proposition.

[vaffie]

Interesting to note that it appears on its present heading it will indeed make it to the Caribbean coast. This was only observed for the Euro and the UKMET models. So their more southerly tracks should not be discounted so much as it's current position and track will have longer scale implications for its ultimate track.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Interesting to note that it appears on its present heading it will indeed make it to the Caribbean coast. This was only observed for the Euro and the UKMET models. So their more southerly tracks should not be discounted so much as it's current position and track will have longer scale implications for its ultimate track.

If I saw more convection in the Caribbean than I do now, I might believe it might pull the center into the Caribbean, but I don't. I think Ike may spend a fair amount of time over Cuba. It should be past the mountainous parts, and Cuba is narrow enough it still is getting good ocean air from both sides, but even NHC discussion hinted it would probably be weaker than official forecast.