ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[PTrackerLA]

I hope it just vanishes overnight, I'm so sick of this thing. Please send some moisture our way next week though, it's been hot and dry for a while.


Hey 94L, can we all have our week back? Thanks.

say what? I live in Lafayette too and it sure as heck hasnt been dry. hot yes, but its been raining almost daily for the last month. There was a thunderstorm yesterday in fact.

I live on the southside near the mall. That storm yesterday made alot of noise but only dropped 5 drops where I live. Other than a cement wetting earlier this week we haven't had a substantial rainfall in well over a week. I've got the dried grass and wilted plants to prove it. Your area must be alot luckier than mine.

To stay on topic, 94L...have fun with that upper level low.

[Ed Mahmoud]

The pro-mets can slam me as a rank amateur and wonder-caster, but I'm still going to be the first to post an image at S2K of every 6Z GFS that shows precip with sub-540 dm thicknesses over Southeast Texas at 336 hours.

Just can't take that away from a guy...

[gboudx]

The pro-mets can slam me as a rank amateur and wonder-caster, but I'm still going to be the first to post an image at S2K of every 6Z GFS that shows precip with sub-540 dm thicknesses over Southeast Texas at 336 hours.

Just can't take that away from a guy...

Depending on how quickly EWG can get to S2K, you may be the 2nd.

Okay, back on topic.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

THIS IS NOT A FORECAST BASED ON ANY WISHING BIAS

Staying on TOPIC 94L:

Reference: http://www.hwn.org/atlantic/ir-caribbean-loop.htm

From my amateur analysis, it appears that the convection of 94L is
intensifying, and that it will be entering a favorable environment of
less shear in the Central Caribbean. Thus, I expect intensification.
As for track, I am going to go with the current model runs consensus
of a 5-6 day track into South Texas/Northern Mexico, it is too
early to tell but people in South Texas and in Mexico
should monitor this system closely. The Yucatan needs to
watch this closely, and the Jamaica Island/ Caymans and nearby
islands should watch this very closely.

I think it may intensify into a 85 mph hurricane before hitting
the Yucatan, and then weaken to a tropical storm, but
given its large size, re-strengthen gradually to a hurricane
and making landfall in 5 days somewhere between Central
Mexico and South Texas.

[BigA]

It seems like there is a nacent circulation at about 15 N, 73W. Hard to tell though. Certainly has the look.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

BACK to 94L: What do you think of my forecast for 94L?

[Innotech]

I think we need to finsd out exactly where the LLc is going to form and then extrapolate from there. Currently it seems to be trying to reform well north of the model track, and even then, the ULL may pull it up further. If it does that, all bets are off as to where its going to go.

[Blown Away]

This invest is going to drive me to drinking!

[Ed Mahmoud]

BACK to 94L: What do you think of my forecast for 94L?

As noted in my quote on model thread, based on apparent convergence of models that do show 94L developing, I think you are in the right ballpark.


I do think it will develop, not sure aboout hurricane strength before the Yucatan, but wouldn't rule anything out.


This might wind up similar to Claudette, in some ways from 2003, except probably further South, Tampico to Corpus Christi, if I were to guess.


Of course, "Tampico to Corpus Christi" is unofficial and un-endorsed by Storm2K.

[x-y-no]

The season is heating up. Time for our members to practice some discipline regarding what they post. In particular, off-topic discussions in the active storm forum are subject to deletion without notice.

[canetracker]

Sure looks like it is taking on a classical shape. Notice the banding like features.

[Ed Mahmoud]

May not quite be at the surface yet, but I suspect will be within a few hours. Current circulation center around 14.9ºN and 72.5ºW, give or take.
In my unofficial opinion, and moving a tad bit North of due West, but not enough to be NW or even WNW.


Quitting time...

[Javlin]

BACK to 94L: What do you think of my forecast for 94L?

The ULL low out front needs more attention remember Claudette went around one like being directed.If the ULL low moves fast enough I could see this guy going more NW to NNW through the YUC channel it just depends then if there is a blocking mechanism in the BOC then?

[HouTXmetro]

May not quite be at the surface yet, but I suspect will be within a few hours. Current circulation center around 14.9ºN and 72.5ºW, give or take.
In my unofficial opinion, and moving a tad bit North of due West, but not enough to be NW or even WNW.


Quitting time...

IMO If thr convection doesn't deepen over the MLC it will not make it to the surface. That's the key.

[jabman98]

Back when 94L first showed up, I never would have thought we'd even have a shred of a chance of getting even a drop of rain from it here in Texas. Figured it would go fishing or slam into SA or CA. Now the models show it coming at least somewhat close to Texas. Obviously, it's way too early to tell (insert usual caveats and disclaimers here), but I'm staggered that we're still watching 94L, the lil' wave that could, and that there's even a tiny possibility that it could make it this far.

I'm intrigued by the possibility of it reforming slightly north of the model track. If that does happen, it'll certainly change things up.

[Frank P]

May not quite be at the surface yet, but I suspect will be within a few hours. Current circulation center around 14.9ºN and 72.5ºW, give or take.
In my unofficial opinion, and moving a tad bit North of due West, but not enough to be NW or even WNW.

Quitting time...

Yep, My best guess is that if it could get a LLC to form at 15.2 and 72.5 it could get over the hump... still shows a healthly mid level circulation, and the convection on the rise.... close but still no cigar...

[wxmann_91]

BACK to 94L: What do you think of my forecast for 94L?

Too bullish IMO.

The combination of a strong July Caribbean easterly LLJ (winds at 850mb from the east @ 30kt) along with the shearing influence of the ULL will make LLC formation difficult, for at least the next 36-48 hr until this makes it to the western Caribbean. From there on out, it's anyone's guess. IF this makes it far north enough, models prog an absolutely beautiful environment over the GOM in about 4 days with a large UL anticyclone and a ventilating ULL both the the west and east; a environment I have noticed is present in many RI cases. Of course it could also end up over land or running out of room by that time. That or the model UA forecasts are wrong, which is possible as well. Certainly many questions left.

[HURAKAN]

Loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 130845.GIF

Convection developing over the MLC and to the north and east of the circulation. Also shows that it's trying to rotate the convection.

[cycloneye]

This bouy located at 15.3n-75.3w will be interesting to follow the data to see how the winds are blowing and the pressure.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42058

[Frank P]

This bouy located at 15.3n-75.3w will be interesting to follow the data to see how the winds are blowing and the pressure.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42058

Yeah, and you'd expect a wind with some kind of north component in this area within the next several hours if a LLC is developing or develops... not happening just yet..