ATL: IKE Discussion

[curtadams]

On the models: remember the track of the hurricane is strongly influenced by middle and upper air winds, and our data for that over the ocean isn't very good. For example, I'm sure Ike didn't get the 30 kt shear predicted yesterday; that's normally enough to -at the very least - expose a center even if the storm stays stacked and hurricane strength.

Basically all SFL still has a >10% chance of hurricane force winds by the NHC estimate; if I were facing that I'd shutter/board up. The track could shift back on Monday and it might be too late to prepare then. From a cost-benefit analysis I'd think a day of work and a couple sheets of plywood are well worth reducing the chance of serious damage to your house by even a few percent.

Also since the models overestimated Nly shear on Ike I suspect they're overestimating S movement too. You *certainly* can't rule out a shift back north yet.

[AtlanticWind]

Does look better for us in Se fla tonight excluding the keys , still too early fopr an all clear though.

[wxman57]

My thoughts are I really would like a day off sometime. 12 days straight of 12-16 hr shifts now and at least 7 more to go with Ike.

Oh...Boo Hoo. I did 10 days of 20-21 hours each. Darn near went unconscious when I finally was able to go out and eat with the family on Monday night. Fell asleep in the booth.

Suck it up and drive on soldier!

do you get overtime?

Overtime? Ha! At least the season will be over after Ike, right?

Does anyone know if the G4 is out there sampling the upper-air environment around Ike today? I'm wondering if that data will get into the 00Z models.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

Does look better for us in Se fla tonight excluding the keys , still too early fopr an all clear though.

Ike's is going more westerly now. A wobble you think?

[KWT]

curtadams, no it got hit by that shear more recently, Ike looked terrible about 9-12hrs ago, its rebounded somewhat now...

As you say Ike is a powerful hurricane and even if there is just a small threat it could take an unexpected wobble you'd be prepared.

Remember the cone folks, the NHC will likely shift SW a touch next advisory again but will place a lot of empthesis on the uncertainty.

[AtlanticWind]

Does look better for us in Se fla tonight excluding the keys , still too early fopr an all clear though.

Ike's is going more westerly now. A wobble you think?

Maybe , its is expanding now at least
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-rb.html

[CrazyC83]

With those steering currents, wouldn't Ike follow Hanna?

[tracyswfla]

Prepare now for Hurricane Ike
from nbc-2.com




Originally posted on: Friday, September 05, 2008 by NBC2 News
Last updated on: 9/5/2008 6:21:51 PM

LEE COUNTY: The Lee County Emergency Operations Center will go into full operation Monday morning at 8 a.m. in preparation for Hurricane Ike.

The county has already ordered 260 tons of sand, which will be available at fire departments.

The Lee County Board of Commissioners will be asked to extend the local state of emergency.

Now is the time to begin your preparations. There are several things you'll need to think about.

"Number one, what can I do to best protect my family, how do I keep them safe? Number two, how can I protect my pets, the little guys inside and the big guys outside? Third, what do I have to do to best protect my property?" said Booch DeMarchi of Lee County Emergency Operations.

DeMarchi says you should take the opportunity to get a plan in place this weekend.

Evacuations orders may be issued as early as Monday morning.

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

I live in the florida city/homestead area. If possible, does anyone know what type of weather we might experience from Ike? Thanks

I would expect 115kt winds - torrential rain, CAT3/4 force storm.

Code: Select all

Category Three Hurricane:
    Winds 111-130 mph (96-113 kt or 178-209 km/hr). Storm surge generally 9-12 ft above normal. Some structural damage to small residences and utility buildings with a minor amount of curtainwall failures. Damage to shrubbery and trees with foliage blown off trees and large trees blown down. Mobile homes and poorly constructed signs are destroyed. Low-lying escape routes are cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the center of the hurricane. Flooding near the coast destroys smaller structures with larger structures damaged by battering from floating debris. Terrain continuously lower than 5 ft above mean sea level may be flooded inland 8 miles (13 km) or more. Evacuation of low-lying residences with several blocks of the shoreline may be required. Hurricanes Jeanne and Ivan of 2004 were Category Three hurricanes when they made landfall in Florida and in Alabama, respectively.

Category Four Hurricane:
    Winds 131-155 mph (114-135 kt or 210-249 km/hr). Storm surge generally 13-18 ft above normal. More extensive curtainwall failures with some complete roof structure failures on small residences. Shrubs, trees, and all signs are blown down. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Extensive damage to doors and windows. Low-lying escape routes may be cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the center of the hurricane. Major damage to lower floors of structures near the shore. Terrain lower than 10 ft above sea level may be flooded requiring massive evacuation of residential areas as far inland as 6 miles (10 km). Hurricane Charley of 2004 was a Category Four hurricane made landfall in Charlotte County, Florida with winds of 150 mph. Hurricane Dennis (pdf) of 2005 struck the island of Cuba as a Category Four hurricane.

[Air Force Met]

do you get overtime?

I'm DoD...there's no such thing

Can't complain though. I've been off the last 2 days...so I've only had to work about 15 hr days from my office at the house.

Did get a break yesterday afternoon...took a nap...until a Col called me on my blackberry and got me up 5 minutes after I had fallen asleep.

[dizzyfish]

Thanks pojo.

We really can't thank ya'll enough for what you do!

[wxman57]

Does look better for us in Se fla tonight excluding the keys , still too early fopr an all clear though.

Ike's is going more westerly now. A wobble you think?

Being in the right-front quadrant of an approaching Cat 3-4 hurricane is never good. Ike would only need to slow down just a little or have the high to its north move just a tiny bit faster eastward for SE FL to be slammed. You won't be out of the woods until it passes to your south and keeps going. I wouldn't be surprised if it slows considerably in the FL straights then turns north. Just about anything could happen to produce a SE FL hit.

Ike is going more west in the past hour. Doesn't mean much. But the less south of west it goes, the greater the risk to the SE FL peninsula and Keys.

[KWT]

EVeryone in the cone should be preparing for possibly a top end-4, remember the advice from the NHC to prepare for a category above what is expected.

Whether or not those safety preps are needed is another matter but if your in the cone best to play the safety game always.

Edit, I'm also starting to see a slightly more westerly motion just recently, as wxman57 said every little bit of lattiude it doesn't lose raises the odds for South Florida...and the keys as well.

[dizzyfish]

Just called my Aunt in Wauchula. I've heard so many references (including a local met) to Donna that I wanted to ask her what Donna was like. (I was too young to remember) From what she told me (they lived in Bowling Green at the time) it wasn't pretty or nice.

I sure hope the Donna replica doesn't happen. She is ready though and will be watching the weather all weekend. Told her I would call her if/when I got some cold hard facts.

I am very antsy about Ike. I'm not usually like that.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I don't think the 18Z GFS is that improbable at all, and with a trough taking a negative tilt, a second US landfall after Florida doesn't seem all that improbable wither...

[jlauderdal]

My thoughts are I really would like a day off sometime. 12 days straight of 12-16 hr shifts now and at least 7 more to go with Ike.

Oh...Boo Hoo. I did 10 days of 20-21 hours each. Darn near went unconscious when I finally was able to go out and eat with the family on Monday night. Fell asleep in the booth.

Suck it up and drive on soldier!

do you get overtime?

Overtime? Ha! At least the season will be over after Ike, right?

Does anyone know if the G4 is out there sampling the upper-air environment around Ike today? I'm wondering if that data will get into the 00Z models.[/quote]

maybe air force met does with those 20 hour days, thats a brutal schedule

[tgenius]

From what I read, the G4 plane isn't sampling the air until Sunday...

[KWT]

Being in the right-front quadrant of an approaching Cat 3-4 hurricane is never good. Ike would only need to slow down just a little or have the high to its north move just a tiny bit faster eastward for SE FL to be slammed. You won't be out of the woods until it passes to your south and keeps going. I wouldn't be surprised if it slows considerably in the FL straights then turns north. Just about anything could happen to produce a SE FL hit.

Ike is going more west in the past hour. Doesn't mean much. But the less south of west it goes, the greater the risk to the SE FL peninsula and Keys.

I'm really worried about the keys to be honest in this set-up ,even if it does take a slightly more southerly trak close to Cuba theres enough time for Ike to lift up and strike them dead on.

Really there is no ideal set-up now, hit Cuba and your going to get a very severe hit, hits SE Florida and your looking at severe conditions across the region and the keys, goes into the gulf and then its got loads of waters to power up...

[Ed Mahmoud]

No outflow at all on the North side, and the eye is still trying to become visible on intermittent frames of IR imagery.


It looks to be moving near due West now, but I could believe a continued path South of due West is in the cards just based on all the flow from the North.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I'm taking this storm very seriously, and I am ready to board up
the glass sliding doors (most vulnerable point).