ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[Ed Mahmoud]

Still just offshore at 180 hours per GFS. If we assume the GFS were right, this would be starting to pull in continental air, and upwelling water, so it'd be weakening. But the immediate coast and the offshore platforms and rigs would take a pounding, and major freshwater flooding would occur in SW Louisiana.


If the GFS were correct.

[Air Force Met]

Finally in on next Tuesday.

Hmmmm....don't think so.

Also...not to pick on Ed...but I have a request because I see this all the time:

When replying to a post...expecially one that has a lot of graphics...could everyone please edit them out unless it is absolutely necessary you post them?

Makes it a lot easier to read when you only have to scroll thru words...and not 10 duplicates of the same pic.

[KWT]

Yep Ed but given the huge size of the system would probably still getting hurricane gusts at least at the coast I reckon.

[sphelps8681]

From 5:00 am discussion:

There has been no significant change to the forecast track. Ike's
trajectory is expected to Bend gradually to the right as the storm
nears a weakness in the subtropical ridge over the next couple of
days...and the guidance models are tightly clustered through 72
hours. After that...the GFS is an outlier in calling for a sharp
short wave trough to move through the plains states on days 4-5.
The GFDL and HWRF...which use the GFS for boundary conditions...may
be picking up on that and show a Bend to the right at the end of
the forecast period. The other global models...such as the
ECMWF...show much more ridging over the eastern United States at
those ranges and have a more westward track. Even though the GFDL
has performed very well with Ike so far...i've chosen not to adjust
the track eastward given that the large-scale fields in the GFS
have no support from the other models. It is still too soon to
know what portion of the Gulf Coast will ultimately be affected by
Ike.

[caneman]

Yep Ed but given the huge size of the system would probably still getting hurricane gusts at least at the coast I reckon.

I have a hard time believe it would sit off the coast for that long. Little suspect to me. Would have to see that for more than one run to believe it.

[Sabanic]

From 5:00 am discussion:

There has been no significant change to the forecast track. Ike's
trajectory is expected to Bend gradually to the right as the storm
nears a weakness in the subtropical ridge over the next couple of
days...and the guidance models are tightly clustered through 72
hours. After that...the GFS is an outlier in calling for a sharp
short wave trough to move through the plains states on days 4-5.
The GFDL and HWRF...which use the GFS for boundary conditions...may
be picking up on that and show a Bend to the right at the end of
the forecast period. The other global models...such as the
ECMWF...show much more ridging over the eastern United States at
those ranges and have a more westward track. Even though the GFDL
has performed very well with Ike so far...i've chosen not to adjust
the track eastward given that the large-scale fields in the GFS
have no support from the other models. It is still too soon to
know what portion of the Gulf Coast will ultimately be affected by
Ike.

The last sentence says it all. They don't even know for sure.

[Air Force Met]

Yep Ed but given the huge size of the system would probably still getting hurricane gusts at least at the coast I reckon.

I have a hard time believe it would sit off the coast for that long. Little suspect to me. Would have to see that for more than one run to believe it.

Yeah...I'd have to see about a dozen runs from a couple of models to believe it.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Finally in on next Tuesday.

Hmmmm....don't think so.

Also...not to pick on Ed...but I have a request because I see this all the time:

When replying to a post...expecially one that has a lot of graphics...could everyone please edit them out unless it is absolutely necessary you post them?

Makes it a lot easier to read when you only have to scroll thru words...and not 10 duplicates of the same pic.

Its ok to pick on Ed. Especially if we have a SETX S2K meet-up and we drink beer by a BBQ. If you're an enlisted man, I'll bring the beer, as I myself was a Navy enlisted man, E-5 when I got out in 1988. Then I attended The University of Texas at Austin, so if a Longhorn alum and an officer, I'd still bring the beer. If you're an Aggie and an officer, well, you bring the beer.


I've been a passenger on C-5A and C-141 jets. And my Dad was in the Army Air Force in WW2. He is buried at the Veteran's Cemetery in Dallas, near the big hill on I-20.



*****Back on topic*****

Is precip scale on GFS 6 hour precip inches or centimeters. Noticing some six hour totals of 5 to 6, if it is centimeters, at 2.54 cm to an inch, bad enough, if inches, catastrophic in SW Louisiana.

[perk]

that was an interesting jump west at 114hr...


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

Rock i don't think the NHC will adjust their track east on the GFS run i just saw, the GFS is no longer the northern outlier.

[KWT]

Yeah the GFS isn't all that far away really from the NHC track guidence so they may not bother with really altering the track much if at all.

[Stratosphere747]

One thing of note is that this run shows almost exactly what yesterdays 0z run showed. It will be curious to hear how they NHC handles the changes in the next disco.

Have to give some major credit to Franklin for discounting the GFS, along with the GFDL/HWRF, for what did appear to be a fishy 0z run and openly stating as such in the disco. Haven't really looked at the 6z so I'm not sure if it's having the same boundary issues.

[Air Force Met]

Its ok to pick on Ed. Especially if we have a SETX S2K meet-up and we drink beer by a BBQ. If you're an enlisted man, I'll bring the beer, as I myself was a Navy enlisted man, E-5 when I got out in 1988. Then I attended The University of Texas at Austin, so if a Longhorn alum and an officer, I'd still bring the beer. If you're an Aggie and an officer, well, you bring the beer.


I've been a passenger on C-5A and C-141 jets. And my Dad was in the Army Air Force in WW2. He is buried at the Veteran's Cemetery in Dallas, near the big hill on I-20.



*****Back on topic*****

Is precip scale on GFS 6 hour precip inches or centimeters. Noticing some six hour totals of 5 to 6, if it is centimeters, at 2.54 cm to an inch, bad enough, if inches, catastrophic in SW Louisiana.

I'm an E-8 bound for E-9 in a couple years (hopefully). Been in 21 years. Did my undergrad at Texas A&M; my Masters (not in meteorology) at Liberty and my Doctorate at Southern.

The precip is in inches. What I have found is take those amounts and mult them by 2 or 3 to get the isolated totals.

[Sabanic]

According to the NHC forecast track this morning looks as though the timeline for landfall has been pushed back a bit. Had he come this way it would have been late Friday, now it is Saturday AM. Also looks like he may get into the NW Carribean and that isn't on their forecast track either. I believe we are going to see many model changes for the next few days. Timeline being different will more than likely allow for different scenarios.

Long week ahead.

[Portastorm]

So is it time to give a little more credit to the UKMET since it is the only one showing Ike spending time in the NW Caribbean? I dunno. Just speculating.

[Sabanic]

So is it time to give a little more credit to the UKMET since it is the only one showing Ike spending time in the NW Caribbean? I dunno. Just speculating.

Who knows?? The NHC has even stated that they do not know where Ike will end up.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Degreed and an enlisted man? I'd try for Warrant Officer, get to be an officer and the enlisted folks know you actually know what you're doing.


Of course, an officer with enlisted medals, like Good Conduct, would let the more astute know you actually know what you're doing.


Edit to stay on topic- six hour rainfall rates of an inch an hour for over a day would be cataclysmic.

[deltadog03]

Ike, should be moving north at that time though. The ridge is clearly broken.

[dwg71]

hwrf 06Z hooking back northeast in central LA slight at 126 hours

shift west, but not much.

[Stratosphere747]

GFDL is further W..

30/93

[cape_escape]

I'm just curiouse, please don't scorn me for asking this, but with Ike going more South through Cuba and poss into the Carib, and there being a NE hook at the end of some of the runs, is it possible he could come into the central Gulf and hook a right into SWFla or perhaps the Tampa area....such as Charley did?

I know I'm prob WAY off in my thinking because so many things go into forecasting something like that, but I guess I have a fear after Charley.

Thank you in advance for any replies!