ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[HURAKAN]

Don't jump from the seat. I think this is one of those internal forecasts the NHC does.

[HurricaneHunter914]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-vis.html
Spinning is now quite obvious on visible. I think it's more organized than it was earlier.

[KWT]

This curving just like a tropical storm would, I wouldn't be at all surprised to see that by tomorrows Dmax we've got a very good looking system on our hands. Best region of spin is clear as day on the sat.imagery and I still think this has a pretty good chance still of doing something.

[Frank P]

outflow also looks pretty good on the north half and east side of the system, regardless of what happens with 94L you got to admit it is a pretty good invest/wave at the moment...

[weatherguru18]

This is stupid but I hope that 94L becomes Dolly over Cristobal. It's a much better name.

[Ivanhater]

Looking good...

[KWT]

Yeah it does look pretty decent right now, the only questionmark is with the ULL stil lat this moment IMO. However despite that this has got some really good curveature to it at the moment and clearly the system is trying to wrap around. I get the feeling this may eventually just go straight to TS status if it can close the center off.

ps, that track looks pretty reasonable to me to be honest.

[Recurve]

Where (how high) is the circulation? It looks classic extratropical/baroclinic storm, or a sheared developing TD. What is the shear there? Time to check the conditions before I have a clue if this is even going to get a number.

Think of the agony if this struggles for 4 days to get to a prime development position in the Gulf.

[txwatcher91]

I see some type of circulation around 14.8N and 73W, is this the circulation everyone is talking about or am I looking in the wrong spot?

[Frank P]

I see some type of circulation around 14.8N and 73W, is this the circulation everyone is talking about or am I looking in the wrong spot?

thats the spot, but from what I can tell its still at the mid levels.. needs to be at the surface... when and if that is going to happen is the million dollar question...

[WmE]

Is there any recent QuickScat pass?

[HURAKAN]

Even the ULL is a reminder of Claudette 2003. Wow.

[senorpepr]

Is there any recent QuickScat pass?

NRL has the latest QuikScat pass at 1048Z and the next for 2255Z (in ~45 minutes). Of course, there may be a delay until the image is ingested into the system.

[KWT]

Yeah Hurakan it does sort of remind me of that even the track may not be all that different either in the end...

Frank, yep we are just watching to see if we can get a clsoed low at the surface, its trying and the convection does seem to be wrapping around but we will have to wait and see.

[Smurfwicked]

I can see the circulation in the last 3 frames of the loop that is being discussed now.

To me it seems as if the forward speed has increased, it also looks to be moving at a NW angle. Could somebody give some more insight on that please?

[HarlequinBoy]

Is there any recent QuickScat pass?

NRL has the latest QuikScat pass at 1048Z and the next for 2255Z (in ~45 minutes). Of course, there may be a delay until the image is ingested into the system.

I'd really like to see it... I think it looks the most organized it has since it passed the islands.

[KWT]

Its also interesting that we are in Dmin right now and yert the system doesn't look too bad, in recent nights the convection has flared up quite a lot as we head into the Dmax and if that happens tonight that may well give this system the final push it needs to become a system but we will see!

[Javlin]

Is there any recent QuickScat pass?

NRL has the latest QuikScat pass at 1048Z and the next for 2255Z (in ~45 minutes). Of course, there may be a delay until the image is ingested into the system.

I'd really like to see it... I think it looks the most organized it has since it passed the islands.

esp. for this time of the day and we still have DMAX togo hmmmn.

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Claudette 2003.Will this do the same trackwise?

[Frank P]

KWT, bouy watching as the system moves off to the west showing ene (70 degs) winds at 21k gusts... if the LLC is going to develop before reaching the bouy in front of it to the west it needs to get that wind swinging around from the north..