ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[NEXRAD]

but those outflow boundaries, unfortunately, are not from the main convective core

Quite not; it's merely an interesting observation. I've not often seen such sharp, large, outflows on visible imagery.

Another interesting observation - mid and upper level ridging appears to be nudging west in vicinity of the Central & NW Bahamas right now per IRWV. The upper low over Ern Cuba has shifted a little more SW this afternoon and is indeed elongating.

- Jay

[KWT]

Yep Aric, little bursts forming near where the old low level circulation was, still seems to be embedded within the main MLC and the deep convection mind you but may help to strengthen the older LLC.

[cpdaman]

i'm guessing further WSW development of a llC would give this thing a better shot at being 'hamstrung' by dominican republic interaction

[KWT]

Well the circulation won't be any further WSW then where the NHC places it presently, so in that regard the only way the models can trend is eastwards because the center can only reform further east, not west from its current point.

[HURRICANELONNY]

Looks to me like it is expanding. The out flow is getting larger. It's evident on water vapor loops:
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

[Aquawind]

I think that convection your seeing Aric is simply part of the MLC expanding. The motion of the cells will tell if they are really attached to the LLC. If they both drift south it's MLC driven imo.

[Derek Ortt]

the problem is, that convection is forming a band flowing into the MLC

I don't expect the MLC to weaken at all

[KWT]

So in other words Derek the main LLC should form in the MLC rather then the other circulation becoming dominant.

[NEXRAD]

Looks to me like it is expanding. The out flow is getting larger. It's evident on water vapor loops:
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

This expansion is from convective weakening and blow-off. You can tell with the cloud tops warming, overall. Look for the more peripheral convection to weaken and dissipate through the evening hours while activity close to the mid and low level center to redevelop and concentrate. The low level center is a bit west of the deepest convection, per the surface observations and visible imagery. There are some new storm tops nearby the low level circulation, though, so I'd expect it to fill-in later today.

- Jay

[Aquawind]

the problem is, that convection is forming a band flowing into the MLC

I don't expect the MLC to weaken at all

Yep.. the MLC is gonna contine to win the battle and probably the war as well..

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

I've not often seen such sharp, large, outflows on visible imagery

Aye indeed! It seems the northern convective complex is dying this pm. The round well-defined "engine" that looks so much like a developing CDO - the part that is making it look like a full fledged TS - is not producing these boundaries.

The arrows point at what I believe to be the outflow boundaries, and the orange arc is the general area of the collapsing convection. The red circle shows the main area of convection.

[gatorcane]

Update: Beven at NHC states this (from Palm Beach Post see models thread):

"Should that be the case, it poses a distinct threat to South Florida," said senior hurricane specialist Jack Beven at the National Hurricane Center near Miami. "If it does, it could start to strengthen. Several of our guidance models would like to make it a hurricane."

[Aric Dunn]

the problem is, that convection is forming a band flowing into the MLC

I don't expect the MLC to weaken at all

well you have two options really.. one the llc weakens and a new one forms under the MLC ..
or the mlc weakens as the old swirls/llc gains convection infront of the MLC cant be both one has to weaken for the other to surive...

[Extremeweatherguy]

Looks to me like the MLC is starting to catch up to the LLC. They may try to start line up soon...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[JPmia]

Update: Beven at NHC states this (from Palm Beach Post see models thread):

"Should that be the case, it poses a distinct threat to South Florida," said senior hurricane specialist Jack Beven at the National Hurricane Center near Miami. "If it does, it could start to strengthen. Several of our guidance models would like to make it a hurricane."

And from that comment, the 5pm news in all south florida markets will be all over this.

[NEXRAD]

I've not often seen such sharp, large, outflows on visible imagery

Aye indeed! It seems the northern convective complex is dying this pm. The round well-defined "engine" that looks so much like a developing CDO - the part that is making it look like a full fledged TS - is not producing these boundaries.

The arrows point at what I believe to be the outflow boundaries, and the orange arc is the general area of the collapsing convection. The red circle shows the main area of convection.

Yes, these assessments are correct. The circled main area of convection will remain and is currently showing some signs of strengthening. There are new convective cells blossoming just west of the current main convective cluster, too. While the IRWV appearance suggests this main core might shrink later today, it should still remain potent given the upper level divergence and outflow.

- Jay

[cpdaman]

Looks to me like the MLC is starting to catch up to the LLC. They may try to start line up soon...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

that would be the 'third option' Aric, the one i will be eating crow on, after skeptically questioning AFM on this a couple hours ago

[KWT]

Yep gatorcane, hardly surprising given what the higher resolution models and SHIPS are suggesting, I wonder what the NHC intensity guidence suggests as well?

[NEXRAD]

If the currently forming new cells west of the main convective cluster continue to deepen, they may influence the mid-level center and transfer it farther west (alla convective processes/mesoconvective cluster circulation influence).

- Jay

[vbhoutex]

Looks to me like the MLC is starting to catch up to the LLC. They may try to start line up soon...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

Just came here to post the same thing. That is what I am seeing too as well as some storms trying to fire possibly to the west of that. Also looks to me like this is not going to skirt the islands but go right through them. Am I missing something?