ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[Sabanic]

I am curious has to when and how much this hook later in the tracks some of the models are starting to show will come into play later in the track. If Ike takes longer, as it seems he is, to get into the GOM the hook could make a huge difference in where he makes landfall.

[Ed Mahmoud]

GFDL is further W..

30/93

Northwest into Louisiana (Verm/Cam parish). Ike will have a hard time reaching Texas. Unofficially, of course.


Off to the office...

[Portastorm]

GFDL is further W..

30/93

Northwest into Louisiana (Verm/Cam parish). Ike will have a hard time reaching Texas. Unofficially, of course.


Off to the office...

Of course, the GFDL remains an outlier. Continued model consensus from Galveston Bay to Tx/La border.

[Air Force Met]

GFDL is further W..

30/93

Northwest into Louisiana (Verm/Cam parish). Ike will have a hard time reaching Texas. Unofficially, of course.


Off to the office...

As long as the GFS is in lala land...throw the gfdl and hwrf out....per the 3am NHC call (their words...not mine).

[Stratosphere747]

As long as the GFS is in lala land...throw the gfdl and hwrf out....per the 3am NHC call (their words...not mine).

Yeah I touched on the 0z GFS and how it seemed to be a bad run last night. Hadn't really looked at the 6z to know if it was having the same issues.

[dwg71]

GFDL is further W..

30/93

Northwest into Louisiana (Verm/Cam parish). Ike will have a hard time reaching Texas. Unofficially, of course.


Off to the office...

Of course, the GFDL remains an outlier. Continued model consensus from Galveston Bay to Tx/La border.

Euro TX,LA Border, GFDL SW LA, NoGaps Central LA, GFS, stalls south of Border for two days, HWRF Central LA

I would Say UKMET is outlier and The rest are centeres on Border to Central LA. Not sure which one shows Galveston Bay.

[cycloneye]

06z HWRF tracks over NW Caribbean Sea,close to South Coast of Cuba and ends just south of Louisiana coast.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

[TampaFl]

8:00am position:

[Bellarose]

Can someone help me figure out what I'm seeing on the HWRF loop? It looks like the outer edge of Ike brushes close to the FL West Coast. I've noticed this on other runs, too (I don't remember which ones, sorry). Now, I'm assuming he is not coming anywhere near the coast, so I can't quite understand what I see here.

Thank you!

[Air Force Met]

Euro TX,LA Border, GFDL SW LA, NoGaps Central LA, GFS, stalls south of Border for two days, HWRF Central LA

I would Say UKMET is outlier and The rest are centeres on Border to Central LA. Not sure which one shows Galveston Bay.

Euro is GLS bay area...not the border. Look at the 144 hr. Sfc low centered over Chambers/Liberty county.

Many of the consensus models pointing there as well.

[TampaFl]

This is one impressive ridge of high pressure!

[HouTXmetro]

So far the "trend" is Texas Friend. However, we are still under the gun according to the NHC.

I will also note that Ike it taking a more Southern route and may be in the NW Carribean alot earlier than we expected.

[Stratosphere747]

So far the "trend" is Texas Friend. However, we are still under the gun according to the NHC.

I will also note that Ike it taking a more Southern route and may be in the NW Carribean alot earlier than we expected.

Not sure if you're talking about the GFS and the hurricane models that uses it and was clearly talked about in the disco?

At this point I don't think there is any "trend" that is anyones friend, including those outside of Texas.

[HouTXmetro]

Not sure if you're talking about the GFS and the hurricane models that uses it and was clearly talked about in the disco?

At this point I don't think there is any "trend" that is anyones friend, including those outside of Texas.

Can you briefly sum up the NHC discussion about the models?

[Stratosphere747]

Not sure if you're talking about the GFS and the hurricane models that uses it and was clearly talked about in the disco?

At this point I don't think there is any "trend" that is anyones friend, including those outside of Texas.

Can you briefly sum up the NHC discussion about the models?

Direct from the source as I would butcher the "issues" the earlier run seemed to be having -

AND THE GUIDANCE MODELS ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH 72
HOURS. AFTER THAT...THE GFS IS AN OUTLIER IN CALLING FOR A SHARP
SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS STATES ON DAYS 4-5.
THE GFDL AND HWRF...WHICH USE THE GFS FOR BOUNDARY CONDITIONS...MAY
BE PICKING UP ON THAT AND SHOW A BEND TO THE RIGHT AT THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS...SUCH AS THE
ECMWF...SHOW MUCH MORE RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AT
THOSE RANGES AND HAVE A MORE WESTWARD TRACK. EVEN THOUGH THE GFDL
HAS PERFORMED VERY WELL WITH IKE SO FAR...I'VE CHOSEN NOT TO ADJUST
THE TRACK EASTWARD GIVEN THAT THE LARGE-SCALE FIELDS IN THE GFS
HAVE NO SUPPORT FROM THE OTHER MODELS.

[HouTXmetro]

Anybody or pro-mets want to take a stab at the latest steering current and Ike's continued Westward progression? IMO I think this is a sign that the High is stronger then what we thought. Ike was suppose to be moving WNW last night.

[Air Force Met]

So far the "trend" is Texas Friend. However, we are still under the gun according to the NHC.

I will also note that Ike it taking a more Southern route and may be in the NW Carribean alot earlier than we expected.

There is no trend. Models are moving all over the place. The NHC is throwing out the HWRF/GFDL since they use the GFS and they think the GFS is hosed. They mentioned this in the discussion...but got a little more in depth on the 3 am call.

IF there is a trend that is not TX's friend...its the trend to the west instead of the WNW as forecasted for the last 5 advisories. This puts the GFS even more out to lunch.

If you go back to yesterday...a couple of models were showing the move due west instead of the NHC WNW motion...and those were the EURO and UKMET. They showed it getting into the NW Car. Take that for what its worth.

[cycloneye]

948
WHXX01 KWBC 081215
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1215 UTC MON SEP 8 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE IKE (AL092008) 20080908 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080908 1200 080909 0000 080909 1200 080910 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 21.1N 77.9W 21.8N 80.2W 22.6N 82.3W 23.4N 84.0W
BAMD 21.1N 77.9W 21.4N 79.8W 21.9N 81.5W 22.8N 83.0W
BAMM 21.1N 77.9W 21.4N 79.8W 22.0N 81.5W 22.9N 83.0W
LBAR 21.1N 77.9W 21.5N 80.2W 22.3N 82.6W 23.2N 84.7W
SHIP 95KTS 97KTS 104KTS 109KTS
DSHP 95KTS 97KTS 84KTS 81KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080910 1200 080911 1200 080912 1200 080913 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 24.4N 85.9W 26.1N 89.7W 26.9N 93.1W 27.5N 95.7W
BAMD 23.7N 84.5W 25.1N 87.3W 25.9N 90.1W 26.6N 93.0W
BAMM 23.9N 84.6W 25.9N 87.8W 27.1N 91.0W 27.8N 94.0W
LBAR 24.2N 86.7W 26.1N 90.3W 27.6N 92.8W 28.7N 93.5W
SHIP 108KTS 104KTS 99KTS 84KTS
DSHP 81KTS 76KTS 71KTS 56KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 21.1N LONCUR = 77.9W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 21.1N LONM12 = 75.2W DIRM12 = 275DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 21.0N LONM24 = 72.8W
WNDCUR = 95KT RMAXWD = 15NM WNDM12 = 115KT
CENPRS = 960MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 120NM RD34SE = 175NM RD34SW = 100NM RD34NW = 120NM




I see a good consensus.

[Air Force Met]

So far the "trend" is Texas Friend. However, we are still under the gun according to the NHC.

I will also note that Ike it taking a more Southern route and may be in the NW Carribean alot earlier than we expected.

Looking at the early 12z's...discounting the garbage...the trend is certainly not Texas' friend. Everything but the garbage pointed at TX.

[dwg71]

still 5+ days from Landfall. Models will move again, left, right, fast, slow, who knows.