ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[KatDaddy]

Outflow is looking better over the wave and it does seem the mid-level circ is getting tighter. The ULL to the NW is slowly drifting SW creating ventilation. With the ULL backing SW it may pull mid-level circ a little more Nward. I really believe the models are a little to far S that where the low-level center may form.

[KWT]

Its pretty uncanny cycloneye, esp given that also had a hard time with closing off a LLC, i recall some discussion saying it had winds easily high enough for TS status yet didn't have a LLC. Who knows about the future track mind you!

I agree KatDaddy outflow is pretty impressive on the northern and eastern side.

[Frank P]

[quote="cycloneye"]Hurricane Claudette 2003.Will this do the same trackwise?

That track right now is as good a guess as any other... who knows it might even come to fruition down the road... just a guessing game atm

[HouTXmetro]

Its also interesting that we are in Dmin right now and yert the system doesn't look too bad, in recent nights the convection has flared up quite a lot as we head into the Dmax and if that happens tonight that may well give this system the final push it needs to become a system but we will see!

It's the same story every night! lol

[Frank P]

Its also interesting that we are in Dmin right now and yert the system doesn't look too bad, in recent nights the convection has flared up quite a lot as we head into the Dmax and if that happens tonight that may well give this system the final push it needs to become a system but we will see!

It's the same story every night! lol

Just a little different tonight compare to the past couple as it's going into Dmax with more convection on hand and still building and a healthy mid level circ... what a tease... has to be a girl...

[KWT]

The difference tonight is for the first time you can really tell where the MLC is and so we can focus on that region and see how it develops, also the fact that it does seem to be trying to wrap a little is also more reason to keep an eye on this then previous nights.

[canetracker]

Not bad for July...August should be really interesting!

[Derek Ortt]

last visible shows no trace of a surface circulation

[RattleMan]

Fifth TCFA!

http://www.webcitation.org/5ZPlBgbKa

[cycloneye]

Fifth TCFA!

http://www.webcitation.org/5ZPlBgbKa

Wpw.it has to a record issuing those for a system.

[Ivanhater]

last visible shows no trace of a surface circulation

I would think with the vigorous MLC, that it will work its way down to the surface overnight and into tomorrow..

[KWT]

Yep Derek but it does have a pretty potent MLC and I would have thought eventually it will work its way down to the surface, doubt it wil lremain as just a MLC for the next 48hrs given the structure it has right now. Still who really knows I could be wrong.

[weatherguru18]

last visible shows no trace of a surface circulation

I would think with the vigorous MLC, that it will work its way down to the surface overnight and into tomorrow..

Yeah, it will eventually. It's like stirring a cup of coffee. If you stir the top of the cup, eventually the swirl makes it to the bottom and the whole cup of coffee is spinning. Give it time.

[KWT]

Fifth TCFA!

http://www.webcitation.org/5ZPlBgbKa

Yep well there you go, the system has been close but constantly not quite well enough organised to deserve being upgraded.

[senorpepr]

NRL has the latest QuikScat pass at 1048Z and the next for 2255Z (in ~45 minutes). Of course, there may be a delay until the image is ingested into the system.

Will someone post the link to where its at?

does anyone know where to get it on the NRL website?

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

Click on 94L.INVEST

Toward to the top-right, you'll see a button that says "Scatt". It's to the left of "CloudSat" Click on Scatt. and choose the type of image you want.

[jasons2k]

I think tonight will be the night for this system to come together.

[KWT]

May wellbe Jasons, have to admit this has been quite a tiring system to watch, one minute it looks there and then the enxt something will push it back, still thats what you get with wathcing these systesm, I should have seen enough of these not to get so fussed anymore yet even now it still gets me involved!

[HurricaneHunter914]

If it continues to organize like that, maybe we'll see something at 5am. That's a big if though. The 8pm TWO should be very interesting.

[KWT]

The thing is they may yet again wait for recon tomorrow to see if the system actually has a closed low. Granted it does look like it has a pretty strong MLC whether or notits at lower altitudes is hard to say.

[deltadog03]

Still think we are very close to a nice LLC...don't quite think we are there, but you have to admit..looking better. PLUS when you turn on the HIGH winds, there is a nice anti-cyclone forming over the top.