ATL: IKE Discussion

[wxman57]

New GFDL, HWRF, and intermediate advisory coming within the half hour.

It's in now:
HURRICANE IKE 09L

INITIAL TIME 18Z SEP 5

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 23.0 63.4 255./14.0
6 22.7 64.8 257./13.5
12 22.3 66.3 256./14.1
18 21.9 67.8 256./13.9
24 21.6 69.3 259./15.1
30 21.0 70.5 243./12.5
36 20.6 71.7 250./11.9
42 20.4 72.8 260./10.5
48 20.2 74.0 262./11.4
54 20.0 75.1 257./10.2
60 20.1 76.3 275./12.1
66 20.4 77.6 285./11.9
72 20.6 78.7 278./11.1
78 21.0 79.7 294./ 9.8
84 21.5 80.8 291./11.0
90 22.0 81.6 302./ 9.6
96 22.6 82.5 306./10.0
102 23.3 83.3 309./10.6
108 23.7 84.1 295./ 7.8
114 24.3 84.8 314./ 9.2
120 24.8 85.5 308./ 7.9
126 25.4 86.0 316./ 7.0

Interesting - last 24 hours points are exactly on Gustav's track. Similar heading, too. I do think Ike will take north turn, though.

[beachlover]

getting into the GOM period is RARE as in never happened with a storm 200 miles from Ike's path Cat 3 to 5.

Do you know statistics / odds? Overall there's not a lot of data to be comfortable with trends. Statements like this are meaningless because we don't actually know what the odds are, we only know what little we've observed over the years.

Regardless, this thing is days out and people who live in a hurricane zone should be prepared anyway. If the storm approaches you activate your plan and do what you need to do.

In short, there is no basis for your statement, it's not helpful, it's not meaningful, and it's not reliable. Sorry, just tired of reading all this cr..

I'm sorry, but that's directly from the historical map on the http://www.wunderground.com site on Hurricane Ike for all storms from 1851 to date. I am simply asking because OBVIOUSLY this storm is not the norm according to that graphic. Maybe it's a useless graphic. I didn't make it up and it's been discussed here previously.

I am just sincerely not understanding why Ike is in record-breaking territory by comparison. It's not the norm and I don't know what to actually expect. As you can see, I've posted maybe 16 times here so it's not like I run around cluttering the boards. Thanks for the warm welcome and your thoughtful input.

[KWT]

Totally agree Hurakan the whole structure seems much improved on what it was about 2-3hrs ago even, shear does seem to have eased off somewhat does recently and now its starting to take on the apperence of a hurricane thats sorting itself out, still think its about to undergo a decent strengthening phase.

Ike is indeed still very close to its forecast point thats why I wouldn't read too much into the westerly movement just yet anyway but we shall see...

[AtlanticWind]

New GFDL, HWRF, and intermediate advisory coming within the half hour.

It's in now:
HURRICANE IKE 09L

INITIAL TIME 18Z SEP 5

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 23.0 63.4 255./14.0
6 22.7 64.8 257./13.5
12 22.3 66.3 256./14.1
18 21.9 67.8 256./13.9
24 21.6 69.3 259./15.1
30 21.0 70.5 243./12.5
36 20.6 71.7 250./11.9
42 20.4 72.8 260./10.5
48 20.2 74.0 262./11.4
54 20.0 75.1 257./10.2
60 20.1 76.3 275./12.1
66 20.4 77.6 285./11.9
72 20.6 78.7 278./11.1
78 21.0 79.7 294./ 9.8
84 21.5 80.8 291./11.0
90 22.0 81.6 302./ 9.6
96 22.6 82.5 306./10.0
102 23.3 83.3 309./10.6
108 23.7 84.1 295./ 7.8
114 24.3 84.8 314./ 9.2
120 24.8 85.5 308./ 7.9
126 25.4 86.0 316./ 7.0

I really doubt Ike will dip all the way down to 20 degrees north , we shall see.

[Dean4Storms]

Ike is still moving 255 or slightly south of due west, a simple use of the Lat/Lon. lines will help you out.

[AtlanticWind]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc0 ... atest.html

We may have a monster here.

[captain east]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc08/ATL/09L.IKE/ir/geo/1km_bw/full/Latest.html

We may have a monster here.

Ummm, it's been a monster for awhile...

[tolakram]

I'm sorry, but that's directly from the historical map on the http://www.wunderground.com site on Hurricane Ike for all storms from 1851 to date. I am simply asking because OBVIOUSLY this storm is not the norm according to that graphic. Maybe it's a useless graphic. I didn't make it up and it's been discussed here previously.

I am just sincerely not understanding why Ike is in record-breaking territory by comparison. It's not the norm and I don't know what to actually expect. As you can see, I've posted maybe 16 times here so it's not like I run around cluttering the boards. Thanks for the warm welcome and your thoughtful input.

Did you look at that map? That's 9 storms, Nine from 1851 - 2006. That's what I'm talking about. It's like flipping a coin nine times, getting all heads, and assuming the coin only has a head. It also assumes that there is some significance to the dates a storm forms vs expected track.

[KWT]

Actually looks to me as its been heading roughly 265-270 in the last 2hrs, its not really dropped much in the way of lattiude in the last 2hrs really.

for that matter the GFDL may already be about 0.1 degree too far south...

[HURAKAN]

I think you can see the increase in organization.

[beachlover]

I'm sorry, but that's directly from the historical map on the http://www.wunderground.com site on Hurricane Ike for all storms from 1851 to date. I am simply asking because OBVIOUSLY this storm is not the norm according to that graphic. Maybe it's a useless graphic. I didn't make it up and it's been discussed here previously.

I am just sincerely not understanding why Ike is in record-breaking territory by comparison. It's not the norm and I don't know what to actually expect. As you can see, I've posted maybe 16 times here so it's not like I run around cluttering the boards. Thanks for the warm welcome and your thoughtful input.

Did you look at that map? That's 9 storms, Nine from 1851 - 2006. That's what I'm talking about. It's like flipping a coin nine times, getting all heads, and assuming the coin only has a head. It also assumes that there is some significance to the dates a storm forms vs expected track.

And that would be the much politer way to state it. Thank you. I had NOT noted the low number of storms, nor did I realize that six storms in that spot meant a bad sampling; it could just mean storms don't normally come from that genesis. We just got whacked by Gustov and we're all very nervous. yeah, we live on the coast and need to prepare but some of my neighbors will lose their homes in this storm if it's bad enough and I worry about them and want to try to understand how this storm is being moved and what we can expect. But don't worry, I won't be asking any more questions anytime soon.

[Tropics Guy]

With its more westward motion lately will this affect the next model runs?

TG

[THead]

getting into the GOM period is RARE as in never happened with a storm 200 miles from Ike's path Cat 3 to 5.

Do you know statistics / odds? Overall there's not a lot of data to be comfortable with trends. Statements like this are meaningless because we don't actually know what the odds are, we only know what little we've observed over the years.

Regardless, this thing is days out and people who live in a hurricane zone should be prepared anyway. If the storm approaches you activate your plan and do what you need to do.

In short, there is no basis for your statement, it's not helpful, it's not meaningful, and it's not reliable. Sorry, just tired of reading all this cr..

Allrighty then. Its meaningless because its never happened before in 150+ years of recorded weather history? If nothing else, that is extremely interesting, and apparently rare, one could deduce. Nobody is saying they don't believe it's going to happen, because it never has in our recorded time, just pointing out the history. But yeah, maybe it happened every year for the 150 years before 1851, what are the odds?

[tolakram]

And that would be the much politer way to state it. Thank you. I had NOT noted the low number of storms, nor did I realize that six storms in that spot meant a bad sampling; it could just mean storms don't normally come from that genesis. We just got whacked by Gustov and we're all very nervous. yeah, we live on the coast and need to prepare but some of my neighbors will lose their homes in this storm if it's bad enough and I worry about them and want to try to understand how this storm is being moved and what we can expect. But don't worry, I won't be asking any more questions anytime soon.

Oh shoot beachlover, I read your first post wrong, I'm sorry. I missed the question because I had just waded through a bunch of Florida is safe posts. Please accept my apologies. Oh, and see the post just above this one for what I'm talking about.

[KWT]

Wow big difference there Hurakan, the main one being it actually has a northern eyewall again, I think Ike is about to restrengthen once more based on that, to what extent I don't know but I think unless something changes Ike is staying as a major hurricane for a little while yet.

[curtadams]

curtadams, no it got hit by that shear more recently, Ike looked terrible about 9-12hrs ago, its rebounded somewhat now...

It was taking some shear, sure. But not 30 knots worth. Ike was tilting and the eye incomplete, which normally would be high teens of shear. Around 20 knots or so the tilt becomes so extreme the circulation is normally exposed and there's no eye on IR; you get the "choochoo train" effect. By 25-30 knots even if the convection is still there (often it's completely blown away) it will generally stutter off and on. No way was Ike getting 30 knots.

[O Town]

Welcome back Ike!

[Ed Mahmoud]

New GFDL, HWRF, and intermediate advisory coming within the half hour.

It's in now:
HURRICANE IKE 09L

INITIAL TIME 18Z SEP 5

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 23.0 63.4 255./14.0
6 22.7 64.8 257./13.5
12 22.3 66.3 256./14.1
18 21.9 67.8 256./13.9
24 21.6 69.3 259./15.1
30 21.0 70.5 243./12.5
36 20.6 71.7 250./11.9
42 20.4 72.8 260./10.5
48 20.2 74.0 262./11.4
54 20.0 75.1 257./10.2
60 20.1 76.3 275./12.1
66 20.4 77.6 285./11.9
72 20.6 78.7 278./11.1
78 21.0 79.7 294./ 9.8
84 21.5 80.8 291./11.0
90 22.0 81.6 302./ 9.6
96 22.6 82.5 306./10.0
102 23.3 83.3 309./10.6
108 23.7 84.1 295./ 7.8
114 24.3 84.8 314./ 9.2
120 24.8 85.5 308./ 7.9
126 25.4 86.0 316./ 7.0

I really doubt Ike will dip all the way down to 20 degrees north , we shall see.

AccuWx PPV for Ike's 18Z GFDL shows a 110 knot (110 to 120, actually) storm.

500 mb field shows fairly flat looking heights North of Ike, with a hint of a high approaching from the West to its North with a hint of a trough right behind it, pretty low amplitude stuff, ie, ripples in a pretty flat flow, but if GFDL went beyond 126 hours, a continued NW motion wouldn't surprise me.

[beachlover]

And that would be the much politer way to state it. Thank you. I had NOT noted the low number of storms, nor did I realize that six storms in that spot meant a bad sampling; it could just mean storms don't normally come from that genesis. We just got whacked by Gustov and we're all very nervous. yeah, we live on the coast and need to prepare but some of my neighbors will lose their homes in this storm if it's bad enough and I worry about them and want to try to understand how this storm is being moved and what we can expect. But don't worry, I won't be asking any more questions anytime soon.

Oh shoot beachlover, I read your first post wrong, I'm sorry. I missed the question because I had just waded through a bunch of Florida is safe posts. Please accept my apologies. Oh, and see the post just above this one for what I'm talking about.

No harm, no foul. We're all strung out with the parade of hurricanes.

Thanks for apologizing, though. I appreciate it. Now can you make the bad man Ike go away, please? (Just kidding, but we're nervous on Cape San Blas tonight and trying to figure out what preparations can be made for our neighbors in peril. I think Sunday we'll have a better handle on it.)

[jlauderdal]

Probably not. in fact the models will be evn further south in the morning.

Looks like a wind and rain event for Dade Cnty northward...[/quote

I think a post is about to get deleted here. How bout some facts, disclaimer perhaps.....

lets take that deletion idea farther than the post..