ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[KWT]

The thing is Patrick the models haven't exactly done much good recently with the upper set-up, the ULL is digging but if the track stays far enough south then any shear won't last long as the ULL will eventually lift I'd imagine/

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

The convective burst will likely poof later on tonight but it keeps the disturbance alive for the time being.

[cheezyWXguy]

The convective burst will likely poof later on tonight but it keeps the disturbance alive for the time being.

The burst will likely die out, only to be replaced by another, as the dmax occurs at night. You know, it does look a lot better today than it did at this time yesterday..

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 192332
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM FAY...CENTERED INLAND OVER FLORIDA 45 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
MELBOURNE.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 950 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION THIS
EVENING. ALTHOUGH ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE...SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES TO THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR
15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER RHOME

[CrazyC83]

And the NHC continues to be really conservative on this. Maybe they are too busy eating crow as a result of Fay?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

And the NHC continues to be really conservative on this. Maybe they are too busy eating crow as a result of Fay?

They knocked fay out of the park with forecasting it. They did a great job.

I agree with this, I believe it has a closed LLC in if shear don't destroy it will be our next cyclone. In about 84-96 hours when Fay is finally dead over the southeastern United states, I believe this we will be watching.

[KWT]

Yep Matt very likely, steering currents suggests that if this stays weak should be a threat to land if it does develop, be it the Caribbean or the east coast of the states, with such a large high in the Atlantic right now hard to see it fishing...

[RL3AO]

And the NHC continues to be really conservative on this. Maybe they are too busy eating crow as a result of Fay?

UM WHAT?

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2008/graphics/al06/loop_5W.shtml

[cycloneye]

00:00 UTC Best Track for 94L:

AL, 94, 2008082000, , BEST, 0, 127N, 384W, 25, 1007, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 45,

[cheezyWXguy]

Yep Matt very likely, steering currents suggests that if this stays weak should be a threat to land if it does develop, be it the Caribbean or the east coast of the states, with such a large high in the Atlantic right now hard to see it fishing...

yeah in about 36 hours or less, conditions should be sufficient to produce a td. However, more complicated is where it goes when it develops.

[KWT]

Very interesting that the best track keeps shifting between 13N and 12.7N recently?

[cycloneye]

19/2345 UTC 12.9N 38.2W T1.0/1.0 94L -- Atlantic Ocean

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

94L has a problem and it's called "dry air"

[Patrick99]

The thing is Patrick the models haven't exactly done much good recently with the upper set-up, the ULL is digging but if the track stays far enough south then any shear won't last long as the ULL will eventually lift I'd imagine/

May have to eat my words. It looks better now than it did.

When is the ULL expected to lift a bit and relax the shear? We've seen better systems than this severely disrupted by ULLs in the wrong place at the wrong time.

[lonelymike]

And the NHC continues to be really conservative on this. Maybe they are too busy eating crow as a result of Fay?

Actually I think they have done a pretty darn good job with Fay. What's your damage with them?

[Sanibel]

It's acting like a survivor but is also about to face a huge ULL ripsaw. Doesn't look strong enough to survive that - but who knows?

[cycloneye]

It has mantained convection during dimin,now lets see when DMAX comes,if it increases more than what it shows now.

[cheezyWXguy]

It has mantained convection during dimin,now lets see when DMAX comes,if it increases more than what it shows now.

Looks like a pretty hefty burst on the west side...it may get absorbed into the circulation, allowing it to organize, in addition to new convection likely to pop later on tonight. And Sanibel, Shear is marginal right now, but shear is no longer forecast to be very bad for the next 5 days..infact at 11kt or less. Shear should decrease within the next 24 hours, allowing the storm to strengthen. Its not bad now anyway, but the main impedent over the next 2 days will likely be dry air.