ATL: IKE Discussion

[KWT]

Very impressive O Town, its got a very small eye again I notice as well, I really think RI is a possible outcome over the next between 06z and 18z tomorrow.

Also shows that more due west motion over the last few hours very well as well...I'd put at the center in terms of latitude at 20.9...GFDL already too far south.

[Grease Monkey]

I wouldn't get too comfy just yet Lifesgud2, the models can swing back, indeed I've got a sneaky feeling they may have slightly overdone the ridge now and that any change will be to the north not the south...

Remember the cone please.

curtadams, thats what you'd be looking for with mid level shear but I think the shear it got hit by at 30kts was at the higher levels, I agree it probably was lower at the mid levels.

It makes it seem since ike is organizing, not only is the shear lessoning, but possibly the ridge easing off to point where it no longer forces him to go south.

[greels]

Good evening everyone,

Please help me out here. I need your advice urgently.
I live on Providensciales, T&C.

I understand weather to a point, which I learn through reading a weather sites such as this.

Ike is coming my way, no doubt. How soon do you think I might start feeling effects such as wind and rain.As I have stated before through these posts, we are hearing nothing from the radio staions at all about this storm.
Not surprising as there were no advisories on Hanna either and look what she did to us.

Simple question...that's all

Gretchen

[curtadams]

It's supposed to be in only moderately favorable conditions but it looks like the shear has become very light. We have a pinhole eye (by IR standards) and outflow rills to the N. Doesn't take much shear at all to stop those.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Despite all the shear from the North, it is starting to get a bit of that textured feathery or scalloped appearance in the cirrus on the Northern end, it looks like it is pushing outflow into the teeth of the shear.




Edit to add to previous post, GFDL takes Ike from Cat 1 to over 110 knots in a day travelling generally Northwest off of Cuba...

[Brent]

Good evening everyone,

Please help me out here. I need your advice urgently.
I live on Providensciales, T&C.

I understand weather to a point, which I learn through reading a weather sites such as this.

Ike is coming my way, no doubt. How soon do you think I might start feeling effects such as wind and rain.As I have stated before through these posts, we are hearing nothing from the radio staions at all about this storm.
Not surprising as there were no advisories on Hanna either and look what she did to us.

Simple question...that's all

Gretchen

Outer effects probably tomorrow during the day with the worst effects overnight.

[KWT]

I could well believe that Ed, conditions look good in the gulf if it does make it there, and if its still a fairly small system then no reason why it wouldn't do some big strengthening...though I think the GFDL is too far south but hey ho!

Shear seems to have eased off quite a lot, as evidenced by the shear developing in the northern quadrant.

[Vortex]

Here's my concern. If you look at the trends of the last 3 hours, climatology and then view ther 12 GFS there is no doubt this run looks as good as any.



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[miamijaaz]

Is a stronger storm more likely to go poleward?

[meteorologyman]

not only is Ike strengthening he is growing in size, expect Rain from Mon-Fri with this storm from South to Central FL then later North FL, thats a lot of rain folks

[wxman57]

AccuWx PPV for Ike's 18Z GFDL shows a 110 knot (110 to 120, actually) storm.

500 mb field shows fairly flat looking heights North of Ike, with a hint of a high approaching from the West to its North with a hint of a trough right behind it, pretty low amplitude stuff, ie, ripples in a pretty flat flow, but if GFDL went beyond 126 hours, a continued NW motion wouldn't surprise me.

Here's the 18Z GFDL intensity forecast. Weakens it over Cuba then back to major - assuming it goes over Cuba, that is. You can get the intensity forecast file here:

ftp://ftp.ncep.noaa.gov/pub/data/nccf/c ... 008090518/



HOUR: .0 LONG: -63.42 LAT: 23.00 MIN PRESS (hPa): 971.83 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 95.09
HOUR: 6.0 LONG: -64.84 LAT: 22.66 MIN PRESS (hPa): 971.69 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 95.49
HOUR: 12.0 LONG: -66.31 LAT: 22.29 MIN PRESS (hPa): 969.97 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 89.54
HOUR: 18.0 LONG: -67.76 LAT: 21.94 MIN PRESS (hPa): 962.77 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 99.92
HOUR: 24.0 LONG: -69.35 LAT: 21.63 MIN PRESS (hPa): 964.48 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):103.48
HOUR: 30.0 LONG: -70.53 LAT: 21.04 MIN PRESS (hPa): 954.58 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):102.52
HOUR: 36.0 LONG: -71.71 LAT: 20.60 MIN PRESS (hPa): 954.87 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):111.77
HOUR: 42.0 LONG: -72.81 LAT: 20.40 MIN PRESS (hPa): 951.52 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):110.67
HOUR: 48.0 LONG: -74.02 LAT: 20.24 MIN PRESS (hPa): 953.89 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):103.38
HOUR: 54.0 LONG: -75.07 LAT: 19.99 MIN PRESS (hPa): 956.03 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 88.53
HOUR: 60.0 LONG: -76.35 LAT: 20.11 MIN PRESS (hPa): 965.64 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 71.33
HOUR: 66.0 LONG: -77.57 LAT: 20.44 MIN PRESS (hPa): 969.57 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 70.94
HOUR: 72.0 LONG: -78.74 LAT: 20.61 MIN PRESS (hPa): 972.85 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 76.00
HOUR: 78.0 LONG: -79.69 LAT: 21.03 MIN PRESS (hPa): 970.27 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 73.94
HOUR: 84.0 LONG: -80.78 LAT: 21.45 MIN PRESS (hPa): 969.19 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 77.06
HOUR: 90.0 LONG: -81.64 LAT: 21.98 MIN PRESS (hPa): 969.10 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 76.56
HOUR: 96.0 LONG: -82.49 LAT: 22.60 MIN PRESS (hPa): 970.86 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 75.27
HOUR:102.0 LONG: -83.35 LAT: 23.30 MIN PRESS (hPa): 967.31 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 81.66
HOUR:108.0 LONG: -84.11 LAT: 23.66 MIN PRESS (hPa): 965.22 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 79.40
HOUR:114.0 LONG: -84.80 LAT: 24.33 MIN PRESS (hPa): 961.35 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 88.66
HOUR:120.0 LONG: -85.46 LAT: 24.84 MIN PRESS (hPa): 958.50 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 96.01
HOUR:126.0 LONG: -85.97 LAT: 25.37 MIN PRESS (hPa): 951.03 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):103.55

[chris_fit]

WXMAN what's your take on the new GFDL and HWRF? Where do you think Ike will go tonight?

[jlauderdal]

Is a stronger storm more likely to go poleward?

interesting question, there has been alot of back and forth about it and i never saw a conclusion as it relates to this setup

[O Town]

Good evening everyone,

Please help me out here. I need your advice urgently.
I live on Providensciales, T&C.

I understand weather to a point, which I learn through reading a weather sites such as this.

Ike is coming my way, no doubt. How soon do you think I might start feeling effects such as wind and rain.As I have stated before through these posts, we are hearing nothing from the radio staions at all about this storm.
Not surprising as there were no advisories on Hanna either and look what she did to us.

Simple question...that's all

Gretchen

If it moves as forecasted by this map you will start feeling it late tomorrow morning I would think.
And the worst of the storm will be in the over night hours as someone else already stated.
I sure hope he weakens some for you guys. Good luck and stay safe.

[mel38]

gretchen i'm praying for all of you in the turk and caicos. mel

[jinftl]

Isn't Ike where Hanna was only a week ago...when the models brought her SW into Haiti?

[Grease Monkey]

Maybe i'm blind, but it doesn't appear that Ike is moving wsw, just looks pretty much do west to me, but even so I don't know if that would affect the track much since they expect him to be either moving wsw or w during the next 24 hours even though they say he's currently moving wsw (which again looks just do west to me).

[chris_fit]

Isn't Ike where Hanna was only a week ago...when the models brought her SW into Haiti?

Models never brought it into Haiti... It did that without the Models, well close enough to Haiti at least.

[jinftl]

But the consensus at one point last friday was for a sw motion...i know this is not hanna and patterns change...but it is interesting that he is almost in the same spot and the models are saying a wsw motion is forecast...look at latest gfdl...has ike going down to 20n latitude.

Isn't Ike where Hanna was only a week ago...when the models brought her SW into Haiti?

Models never brought it into Haiti... It did that without the Models, well close enough to Haiti at least.

[Evil Jeremy]

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM AST.

Awaiting the late 8PM Advisory. Perhaps they are holding it to look at its apparent westward movement now? Or mabey they forgot to write it lol.