ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[Ed Mahmoud]

The other Jeff, Dr. Masters of Wunderground, is leaning towards Louisiana, and since his ideas match my amateur ideas, I think his reasoning is sound.

Track forecast for Ike
The Florida Keys are probably off the hook. It now looks unlikely that Ike will bring hurricane force winds to the Keys. Ike continues to move due west, and the eye may pop out to the south of Cuba at times between now and Tuesday morning. It is unlikely that the eye will move far enough from the coast for significant strengthening to occur, though. Passage over Cuba has disrupted the eyewall enough that it would take at least 12 hours over water for the storm to reorganize, and Ike probably won't get that kind of time over water. Ike is expected to track west-northwest on Tuesday into the Gulf of Mexico, passing near or over Havana, Cuba. The expected track should bring tropical storm force winds of 50-70 mph to Key West and the Lower Keys on Tuesday afternoon.

The latest 06Z (2 am EDT) computer models no longer expect a turn northward towards the Florida Panhandle. As we've seen many times this hurricane season, the models were over-enthusiastic about the intensity of a trough of low pressure passing to the north. High pressure has been dominant over the eastern U.S. the past month, and the models have consistently been underpredicting the dominance of this high pressure. The current steering pattern, with high pressure entrenched over the eastern U.S., steering hurricanes into Florida and the Gulf Coast, is similar to the steering pattern of 2004 and 2005. This steering pattern has acted to steer six straight storms into the U.S., and is not expected to change significantly over the next two weeks, according to the latest long-range forecasts from the GFS model.

As Ike moves approaches within 300 miles of the Louisiana coast on Friday, there will be another trough of low pressure capable of turning the storm to the north. The GFS, GFDL, HWRF, NOGAPS, and Canadian models all predict that this trough will be strong enough to turn Ike northwards into central or western Louisiana. The UKMET and ECMWF models disagree, and think high pressure will dominate enough to force Ike westwards into Texas, between Corpus Christi and the Louisiana border. These two models have been trending too far south with Ike so far, so I would lean towards a landfall in western Louisiana at this point.

[dwg71]

GFS through 54 hours no surprises, just about the same as before.

[Brent]

The other Jeff, Dr. Masters of Wunderground, is leaning towards Louisiana, and since his ideas match my amateur ideas, I think his reasoning is sound.

You had better hope so.

The models have trended too far SOUTH? The hurricane is moving into the CARIBBEAN!

Not true.

[bzukajo]

I am flying to Houston on Thursday. I was supposed to move my girlfriend into a new apartment on Saturday. The timing is wicked bad, even though the new apartment is only a block away. The track of this storm appears to shoot over Galviston and if it stays on this track, Houston is just behind it. I am not a native to Houston, neither is my girlfriend (I am from MA she is from Japan.) Is Houston a potential flood disaster if this lands there at a cat 3? I am wondering if I am going to have to stay an extra week or so to complete the move. Anyways, if it hits there I will take photos for sure!

[Portastorm]

The other Jeff, Dr. Masters of Wunderground, is leaning towards Louisiana, and since his ideas match my amateur ideas, I think his reasoning is sound.

You had better hope so.

Poor Ed ... he is trying so hard to hang on to his "Texas season over" proclamation.

[dwg71]

66 Hours no major changes in GFS

[Raider Power]

I am flying to Houston on Thursday. I was supposed to move my girlfriend into a new apartment on Saturday. The timing is wicked bad, even though the new apartment is only a block away. The track of this storm appears to shoot over Galviston and if it stays on this track, Houston is just behind it. I am not a native to Houston, neither is my girlfriend (I am from MA she is from Japan.) Is Houston a potential flood disaster if this lands there at a cat 3? I am wondering if I am going to have to stay an extra week or so to complete the move. Anyways, if it hits there I will take photos for sure!

Depends on the part of town. West and NW of Central Houston, not a huge flood risk, although there are isolated neighborhoods that can flood even in minor storms. There are flood prone areas inside the loop and near some of the bayous and of course as you go down south I45, the chances of flooding in a hurricane will rise dramatically. Unlike New Orleans, the water will recede fairly quickly and not just sit for days.

[Air Force Met]

The other Jeff, Dr. Masters of Wunderground, is leaning towards Louisiana, and since his ideas match my amateur ideas, I think his reasoning is sound.

You had better hope so.

The models have trended too far SOUTH? The hurricane is moving into the CARIBBEAN!

Not true.

Exactly. That sentence is either -removed- on masters part...or just sleep deprivation.

[perk]

The other Jeff, Dr. Masters of Wunderground, is leaning towards Louisiana, and since his ideas match my amateur ideas, I think his reasoning is sound.

Track forecast for Ike
The Florida Keys are probably off the hook. It now looks unlikely that Ike will bring hurricane force winds to the Keys. Ike continues to move due west, and the eye may pop out to the south of Cuba at times between now and Tuesday morning. It is unlikely that the eye will move far enough from the coast for significant strengthening to occur, though. Passage over Cuba has disrupted the eyewall enough that it would take at least 12 hours over water for the storm to reorganize, and Ike probably won't get that kind of time over water. Ike is expected to track west-northwest on Tuesday into the Gulf of Mexico, passing near or over Havana, Cuba. The expected track should bring tropical storm force winds of 50-70 mph to Key West and the Lower Keys on Tuesday afternoon.

The latest 06Z (2 am EDT) computer models no longer expect a turn northward towards the Florida Panhandle. As we've seen many times this hurricane season, the models were over-enthusiastic about the intensity of a trough of low pressure passing to the north. High pressure has been dominant over the eastern U.S. the past month, and the models have consistently been underpredicting the dominance of this high pressure. The current steering pattern, with high pressure entrenched over the eastern U.S., steering hurricanes into Florida and the Gulf Coast, is similar to the steering pattern of 2004 and 2005. This steering pattern has acted to steer six straight storms into the U.S., and is not expected to change significantly over the next two weeks, according to the latest long-range forecasts from the GFS model.

As Ike moves approaches within 300 miles of the Louisiana coast on Friday, there will be another trough of low pressure capable of turning the storm to the north. The GFS, GFDL, HWRF, NOGAPS, and Canadian models all predict that this trough will be strong enough to turn Ike northwards into central or western Louisiana. The UKMET and ECMWF models disagree, and think high pressure will dominate enough to force Ike westwards into Texas, between Corpus Christi and the Louisiana border. These two models have been trending too far south with Ike so far, so I would lean towards a landfall in western Louisiana at this point.

The 10:00 am NHC discussion does'nt share his opinion.

[Texashawk]

The other Jeff, Dr. Masters of Wunderground, is leaning towards Louisiana, and since his ideas match my amateur ideas, I think his reasoning is sound.

You had better hope so.

Poor Ed ... he is trying so hard to hang on to his "Texas season over" proclamation.

Are we going to get the naked street dash out of it too??

[Stratosphere747]

The problem is Masters is using the 6z GFS and its hurricane models that were essentially thrown out by the NHC.

And then he wants to throw out the few models that actually showed the track back out over the Caribbean.

I don't think many Texans want to deal with Ike, but Masters' forecast isn't quite a confidence builder in his Louisiana solution.

[Wx_Warrior]

GFS 84...Further west from 06h

[Air Force Met]

66 Hours no major changes in GFS

Big changes.

Actually further west at 66...but about 200 miles further west at 84.

[Brent]

You had better hope so.

Poor Ed ... he is trying so hard to hang on to his "Texas season over" proclamation.

Are we going to get the naked street dash out of it too??

Poor Houston. You're screwed either way.

[Sabanic]

66 Hours no major changes in GFS

Big changes.

Actually further west at 66...but about 200 miles further west at 84.

Another one indicating TX. Guess if you live east of NOLA we can forget about Ike now, and go watch Josephine. No need to worry about him any longer.

[TampaFl]

Ridge still holding strong. When will the wnw/nw turn occur? Looking @ this map does not appear to be any time soon. Map time stamp 1200UTC

[KWT]

Looks a lot closer to the Euro and UKMO on this run, keeps around 26N in the western gulf at 84hrs, will be very interesting to see where this goes...

Problem is there should still be enough of a weakness to lift Ike up to around 25-26N and from there even if it tracks due west the whole way to the coastline it will still be a threat to Texas...

[ROCK]

quote="Portastorm"]

Poor Ed ... he is trying so hard to hang on to his "Texas season over" proclamation.

Poor Houston. You're screwed either way. [/quote]


Brent, thats the funniest post I have seen in quite awhile....

[perk]

The other Jeff, Dr. Masters of Wunderground, is leaning towards Louisiana, and since his ideas match my amateur ideas, I think his reasoning is sound.

You had better hope so.

Poor Ed ... he is trying so hard to hang on to his "Texas season over" proclamation.

Portastorm right now Rock owns Ed,and he is trying to find anyone and i mean anyone who can bolster his Texas hurricane season is over claim.Now having said that i hope old Ed is right.

[dwg71]

GFS 114HRs, south Texas - Corpus area??

Will we all be Euro huggers when this is said and done??